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Sunday, November 30, 2003

Piling on

I haven't heard any nicknames for Little's f*&kup. You know, with the 1909 Giants it was "Merkle's boner;" in the early 20s there was "Lombardi's Swoon", when Ernie Lombardi (no relation) got knocked senseless on a collision at home, allowing another run to score. In '86 it was just "Buckner." This is an important point. It's too tiresome to say "the 7th game of the LCS when Little shoulda taken Pedro out in the 7th and used Timlin and Williamson like he'd been doing all month," and what's more, it's too irritating to discuss without at least a snarky nickname. My vote is "Little's Lobotomy."

Friday, November 28, 2003

It's ON!!!

Where were you when you heard the news? OK, getting Schilling probably rates below V-J Day, but whatever happens this coming season, this is a huge deal and a terrific coup by Theo, not only because the Sox were desperate for starters, but because it changes the Subject completely from Pedro's empty gas tank.

The significance of this mass-psychological about-face cannot be overstated. Look at some of the teams who suffered disappointing playoff defeats. The hangover can be devastating. The '87 Sox finished 20 games back, a dismal 78-84; the almost-as-miserable Angels finished last. The Cardinals lost heartbreaking World Series in both 1985 and '87, and those great Herzog teams melted away to 3rd and 5th place finishes the next year. The Pirates lost the '92 NLCS in the bottom of the 9th, and faded to 5th in '93. The '79 Sox were as toothless as a Mike Torrez slider. Only the rare team can overcome heartache on this scale; and with the way the aught-three Sox rebounded from tough losses, maybe they have the ability to soldier on. But Bruce Hurst recently talked about the 1987 season, commenting that after the loss in '86 guys just went through the motions. Didn't 2004 have "1987" stamped all over it before this week?

Then there are the fans. And the media. The Nation has spent an eternity, and especially the last 7 years, casting its lonely, envious eyes in the direction of New York. However much progress was made in '03, however rational it may be to see that as a starting point (given the yankees' trajectory) rather than Waterloo, the reality is this was gonna be one cold, dark offseason, until today.

Two other remarkable elements to it... who else could have been acquired to give the Sox a similar lift? Pettitte, perhaps, for what it would both add and subtract, but there's no way that was happening. Colon? Millwood? The not-so-ageless Greg Maddux? An up-and-coming Javier Vazquez? Vlad Guerrero? I say this was Theo's only shot to turn things around in one grand maneuver. Only a starting pitcher who is a workhorse, dials it up early and often, and has a serious postseason record could have given us the lift we needed to overcome Little's Lobotomy. Only Schilling, among the remotely available pitchers, fits that bill. And we got him for Casey Freakin Fossum.

The other remarkable item swirling around out there is the possibility that Curt was convinced to come to Boston after about three hours spent in a Sox chat room on the net Thursday night. Seriously. We'll see what comes out on this, but Theo sounded pessimistic, according to some reports, Thursday night, but by Friday morning a deal was on. In between, Schilling -- who likes to surprise radio talk shows by calling in -- was chatting on line with Sox fans through some private site -- though he references Sons of Sam Horn -- and was impressed by how intense they were, not to mention knowledgeable (remember, computers were involved.) As someone who prefers to follow politics through the weblog undercurrent rather than the traditional media, I firmly believe that if you know how to wade through the nonsense, you can get some real grassroots feedback this way. [And that is as close as this site will EVER come to talking politics, I promise.] Schilling apparently believes he tapped into the main nerve of Sox Nation on line, and I for one am not surprised. Of course, he had to spend most of the time naming his family members, pets, etc. in an effort to convince the other chatters he wasn't some troll.

So, for the psychological lift it provides to an ever soul-hungry nation of Sox fans, this is the One that Didn't Get Away. This is Ahab standing over the prone white whale shouting "you can't handle this!! You can't handle this!!" Ok, gotta run. Stacey's due date is two days off, so there's still time to float the name "Theo."

Thursday, November 27, 2003

A-Rod versus Nomar

The Holy Trinity is in flux: Jeter is slipping off the pedestal, Tejada has submitted his application for admission and is available to the highest bidder, A-Rod and his MVP hardware are on the block, and Nomar is sitting on a bluff in Santa Barbara with his new wife, contemplating the local real estate market. Since 1997 the Trinity has made for great competition in the stat sheets, all-star games, and occasionally head-to-head. But nothing lasts forever in baseball except Jessie Orosco, and so it occurs that the Red Sox are contemplating bringing on A-Rod and cashing out Nomar. If you believe the premise of this essay -- that this is a choice between A-Rod and Nomar -- then consider...

2003 stats
Nomar: .301, 37 dbls, 28 hr, 105 rbi, 19 sb, 61 k, 39 bb, .345 obp + .524 slug = .869 OPS
A-Rod: .298, 30 dbls, 47 hr, 118 rbi, 17 sb, 126 k, 87 bb, .396 + .600 = .996 OPS

Career averages per 162 games
Nomar: .323, 47 dbls, 30 hr, 117 rbi, 14 sb, 68 k, 47 bb, .370 + .555 = .925 OPS
A-Rod: .308, 36 dbls, 44 hr, 126 rbi, 22 sb, 126 k, 71 bb, .382 + .581 = .963 OPS

If you're Rob Neyer and you invented OPS, you obviously give a slight edge to A-Rod, particularly last season. A-Rod obviously hits for more power, knocks in slightly more runs, strikes out twice as often but walks twice as often too. Nomar leads in averages and doubles. Steals are a push, and have as much to do with the manager as the player; Nomar stole healthily last year in Little's aggressive system, versus hardly ever under Jimy Williams. Oh, and A-Rod wins gold gloves.

OPS: This stat -- on base percentage plus slugging -- is supposed to measure basic hitting skill, patience, and power, the sum total of a hitter's role, as opposed to mere batting average. A-Rod wins because of on-base percentage; he receives a normal quotient of walks, while Nomar walks about as often -- and as willingly -- as Trot Nixon cleans his hat. Nomar hangs in on slugging, but is it a mirage? His doubles totals are hugely inflated by the wall: 29 of his 37 doubles in 2003 were in Fenway, along with 18 of his 28 homers. A-Rod, by comparison, hit 26 of 47 homers at home, and fewer than half his doubles and triples, splits which suggest nothing more than familiarity. Bottom line: put them in the same park and A-Rod's OPS lead probably goes up a couple ticks.

Walks and Strikeouts: The biggest differences between the two, with each player enjoying a dramatic advantage in one category. But this is one place where numbers don't tell the real story. A-Rod is the cleanup hitter -- HE is the guy you don't pitch to if you can help it -- while Nomar hits in front of the guy you don't pitch to. Nobody EVER wants to walk Nomar, even if it were possible to do. This alignment probably results in an extra 20 walks for A-Rod; intentional passes were 10-1 A-Rod last year, and I'll wager my first born Nomar's single IBB was during one of Manny's "vacations." But Nomar had a career high of 61 walks hitting cleanup in a weak pre-Manny lineup, so put them in the same situation and the numbers even out some. The strikeout differential is much more sharp, and a bit alarming. Unless you're Juan Marichal, the worst thing you can do with a bat is strike out. Runners don't advance, fielders aren't challenged, pitchers' confidence rises. Momentum changes. In fairness, A-Rod probably gets frustrated at being pitched around or nibbled, and has to go fishing if he's going to swing at all. But 126 strikeouts? Why not just put Rob Deer at short? Edge swings back to Nomar.

Production: A-Rod has produced slightly more runs each year, driving in 126 and scoring 128 compared to Nomar's 117 and 120. Nomar's 2003 stats are a bit less competitive when you consider he was playing for a team that put up NBA-type scoring numbers. But A-Rod's Rangers (and Mariners) have been productive too. The huge split in homers means A-Rod tends to do it with the long ball, while Nomar is chipping away. So if your only contact with baseball is on SportsCenter, you'd prefer A-Rod. But do his homers result in more wins? Games are won with runs, and A-Rod is knocking them in in spurts, while Nomar's are presumably spread around more. My hunch is that Nomar's RBIs meant more, but this is hard to quantify, even if I felt like it, which I can assure you I don't. The point, though, is that A-Rod's homers are overrated, perhaps vastly so. Runs are runs, even when they come via bases-loaded walks (has this scenario been renamed a "Chad Fox" yet?). Edge to A-Rod, but it's less once you strip away the hype.

Other Factors: A-Rod wins gold gloves, and had less than half as many errors (20-8) last year. A-Rod is two years younger, and having hit 345 homers by age 28 means he's going to generate a lot of buzz at the end of his career, when he catches Ruth. Whatever. A-Rod hasn't missed a game in three years; Nomar was missing 20 a year even before the wrist injury. Nomar's OPS is down over 100 points the last two seasons, in the upper .800 range as opposed to his 2000 high of 1.033, while A-Rod is holding steady around 1.000. Is Nomar in decline? Or is the wrist like a pitcher's elbow, where it can take a couple years of 90% health before it really recovers? Also, what was up with that September/October swoon? Probably just one of those things... Nomar was god-like in previous postseasons. Time (and an occasional x-ray) will tell, but I'll assume for now that he's fine. Finally, Nomar is a product of our own "farm system" -- but a laid-back west coast guy -- while A-Rod would be an import, albeit an east coast guy who might react better to the hysteria. Both guys supposedly have a manic desire to win.

And then there are the contracts. Nomar's free after next year, but he'll probably hook on someplace for about 60% of A-Rod's numbers. If he wants to stay, he'll get the chance, but the rumors of him pining for Cali are chilling.

My final analysis is, A-Rod is better all-round and more productive in a very different role, but once you factor in the contracts, Nomar is clearly the better guy, and may be anyway. A-Rod's numbers show what he is: a cleanup hitter who doesn't get cheated on his cuts, who gets pitched around a lot, and who will burn you if you challenge him. Nomar is a classic #3, setting the table but clearing it sometimes too. He puts the ball in play as reliably as Drew Bledsoe on a weak side safety blitz. Maybe it's irrelevant, but this sounds more like what you want from a shortstop, with cleanup being better suited to the Mannys of the world. And pre-Manny, pre-injury, when Nomar was forced to hit cleanup for two years, he won two batting titles and posted OPSs of 1.021 and 1.033. In other words, he was A-Rod. At a fraction of the price.

So, unless his wrist or his relationship with the city is in decline, Nomar is our guy. Just like he has been all along.

Wednesday, November 26, 2003

Tomorrow: A-Rod versus Nomar. Also, I plan to challenge my friend Mike to a walnut stuffing eating contest. Priscilla Alden would have wanted it that way.
Follow the Bouncing Ball: the Ken Walter Show

It's not easy to find things to criticize about the Patriots this year. No, wait, it is: Their special teams blow. It's officially time to put air quotes around the word "special." Special teams have been a source of pride for the Patriots Release 2.0: the Championship Era. From Troy Brown's TD against the "Steelers" to Vinatieri's ongoing heroics to generally solid coverage, there has been little to complain about, and even a few chances to rehash the old adage that offense sells hot dogs, defense wins games, and special teams win championships. Now, Vinatieri is in a slump, kicks are getting blocked, and the coverage even gave up a TD for the first time in 6 years. And Ken Walter's leg suddenly has less strength than a bungy cord.

Realistically nobody worries about Vinatieri, and even if they did, he's got a lot of goodwill reserve left in the tank. My thinking is, one SuperBowl winning kick is worth forgiving about a thousand sins. Since the gun went off at the end of Super Bowl XCLVMIXXX, he has done little wrong, but let's say for arguments' sake he sins about two or three times a week; say, running over a squirrel, pouring half a beer down the sink, garden variety stuff. That gets him down to about 726 forgivable sins left in reserve. After last week's two botched field goals, the number drops to 724. Let's move on.

Also, the Pats' coverage averages about fourth in the AFC, despite the runback against Denver (which was a small price to pay for keeping Deltha O'Neil on the field). That leaves Walter. In the Denver game I was convinced the Broncos were cheating and sending out cold, deflated footballs when he kicked, but the situation didn't get any better in Foxboro, and his exploits in Houston need no elaboration. Thanks to the team's policy of selling watery beer, Pats fans these days all understand the how team (release 2.0) subtly relies on field position.

The solution? Grin and bear it. Belichick said today that they have been bringing in punters for tryouts as a routine matter, not to usurp Walter. Now, since he said it to the Globe, you can assume it's not true. Translation? The people they brought in were no better, and at least Walter has experience as St. Adam's holder.

The other scuttlebutt is that Walter is streaky. His first four games this season were solid, and nobody was complaining much last season either. He's 31, an age I recall with fondness. He may be hurt, but until the season ends or someone slips a truth serum into Belichick's morning fruit smoothie, we'll never know. Solution? Like I said, grin and bear it.

[N.B. let's be perfectly clear: Belichick is the best thing that ever happened to the Patriots' sideline, a point or two above Parcells and 726 points above third place Chuck Fairbanks. On the other hand, his candor with media and fans is a league joke. Do I care? Not on your life.]
Three all-stars, and could you hold the reality please?

[11/25/03: El Fuego's first baby steps in the blogger universe]

The usual suspects report that the baseball world is conspiring to dump Alex Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Keith Foulke, Terry Francona, Paris Hilton, Michael Jackson, and the Solid Gold Dancers into the figurative lap of Red Sox GM Theo Epstein this week. Some of those individual scenarios may indeed become reality, and I'll get to a few in a moment. But the sheer totality of the 2004 Red Sox roster, if you can believe the whispers, would combine the offense of the '27 Yankees and the pitching of the '68 Cardinals, or some such thing. In other words, the wait is over.

You can choose to believe that the first four names may all grace the Sox media guide in just three short months from now, but the hypothetical possibility raises about 72 other issues. First, if you've sipped from the Peter Gammons Kool-Aid as often as I have, you might be wondering whatever happened to that notion that the Sox' budget was pegged at no more than $110 mil for next season. They supposedly had about $10 mil to spend and only cleared about another 4 mil or thereabouts by subtracting Todd Walker, the Greatest Clutch Hitter in the Live Ball Era. [Yes, I am aware he also apparently used his bat to field his position too.] A scant 14 mil, then, which was to be used on a pitcher or two and any extra applied to extensions for the five (!) critical players whose contracts expire next year. All $14 mil would be used up by the Schilling deal, leaving the Sox an additional, um, NOTHING to give to Keith Foulke, Nomar, Nixon, Lowe, Pedro, Varitek and the difference between A-Rod and Manny's contracts.

The Schilling deal is reported as done, so obviously the Sox have some financial flexibility to do this and other housekeeping, i.e. more maneuverability than your average pensioner, but somewhat less than Congress. But I find it hard to believe they can do everything that's being reported, and it sounds a lot more credible that they're keeping numerous balls in the air with the intention of only catching one or two. So... they're locked in on Schilling, so if he comes on board, do they still make an offer to Foulke? His visit was scheduled back when Schilling was still saying Fenway was homer heaven. Does Foulke get overcome by events?

If Schilling says no, they can presumably make Foulke a solid offer and still pick up a quality starter at 6-8 mil, which includes lots of potential #2 guys like Milton, Garcia, or Vazquez (assuming they slip something into Omar Minaya's latte at the next league meeting). If Schill says yes, they could maybe sign Foulke while the church bells are still ringing, then slam the door on the vault until they can move Manny for something cheaper than A-Rod.

Projo's McAdam has a nice piece on why the A-Rod trade could be more buyer's remorse. Seriously, how many other contracts are inscribed on medieval restraining devices? Exactly one, and detaching one from Epstein's neck doesn't do much good if you then fasten the other. The Manny-for-A-Rod trade makes no sense unless the Sox have been told that Nomar plans to walk; considering he's a home-grown Sox hero, Nomar's value to the franchise rates about equal right now to A-Rod's, so why get that value at $25 mil per when Nomar will probably sign (somewhere) for about 60% of that?

My point is, only Francona comes free of charge; anyone else coming on board with a big salary makes it harder for the Sox to deal with their 2004 free agents, or to sign anyone else before spring. You can't have four entrees just cuz they all look tasty.

So.... Looking at the deals individually:

Foulke is rumored to want about 6-8 mil for three years, but Theo made mention of four years during their courting session at the Celts' game Monday. Foulke's salary numbers sound reasonable, so perhaps the length of the deal is the trump card. There is some risk for the Sox -- always is -- but these are Mike Lansing numbers, and if Foulke shows up every day and compliments the clubhouse guys, or Manny's wardrobe, he'll already be more valuable to the team than Lansing ever was. He lost his way briefly in Chicago for some reason (mechanics? injury? please don't say nerves) before resuming ace status in Oakland, and he got dinged a bit in the ALDS by our very own, so he's not Mariano. But with the support he'd have in the Sox' pen, he might just be chairman of a very important -- and, this time, successful -- committee. Oakland probably wouldn't match the Sox' deal, but they could come close enough to keep Foulke. We shall see.

Finally, the Schilling deal raises an interesting question: is there a league-wide conspiracy to beat Steinbrenner, or is it limited to Montreal, Cincinnati and Arizona? The Red Sox' track record of improbable trades is getting longer and more difficult to believe. It began with the Great Pedro Heist, where somehow the Spos were more keen on Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. than the package of stud prospects and proven stars the Yankees had available. The details get grainier over time, but I believe the Spos turned down Rivera, Jeter, Pettitte and prospects. Or maybe it was Brosius and Tino. Anyway, they settled for surprisingly little for the best pitcher of our generation. They also handed us Cliff Floyd and UU for guys who haven't turned into Bagwell too quickly. In the Theo era, we have spirited away Kim, Sauerbeck, Williamson, and now possibly Schilling out from under Steinbrenner's nose, forcing the slightly older and vastly more experienced Brian Cashman to go scrambling after overrated guys like Boone, Nelson and Benitez (assuming Benitez is still rated at all).

The Schilling deal is astounding and I hope it happens. Even if Jorge de la Rosa turns into Roger Clemens, cuz if the D-Backs are willing to take guys like Shea Hillenbrand and Brandon Lyon off our hands, I'm sure we can reclaim George of the Rose when the time comes. For now, though, it proves only that Colangelo and Garagiola either can't stand the Yankees any more than me, or that Theo could charm the rosary beads off a nun.
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