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Sunday, February 27, 2005

Giambi Presser: updated!

When Jason Giambi got up before the press and apologized for a transgression that he said he couldn't identify because his lawyers wouldn't let him, I went predictably batty. Not one for the ol' responsibility hall of fame. More specifically, I blamed his lawyers for hiding behind some real or imagined legal interest and sending Giambi up there to make an ass of himself. This even spawned a little debate here and at Derek's Blog about whether Giambi's strategic interests were serious enough, whether he deserved forgiveness, and whether Brian Cashman was in fact standing off to the side holding Giambi's contract, ready to tear it to shreds as soon as the S-word was uttered.

Now, in today's Times, it appears Steinbrenner agrees with me. So I take back everything I said.

Friday, February 25, 2005

Go Cats Go!

Thus far I have resisted plugging my alma mater, but I can no longer ignore them. The University of Vermont basketball team is, according to ESPN, the most lovable, exciting little basketball team in the country. Never mind that they are one Cameroon import away from being the whitest team in the NCAA tournament's modern history -- their recruiting base is Vermont and Ontario, and by the way, Canadians are even cuter than Vermonters, so nobody really minds. A better question is how they got a guy from Cameroon -- a pretty decent swingman type named Germain Mopa Njila -- to go to a school where, as I can attest, if you run to class with wet hair, it will be frozen in less than a minute. Anyway, I digress...

Some background: UVM (derived from the latin root of Vermont, verdis montis, or Green Mountain) has sucked ass in basketball since shortly after the University's founding in 1793. In my day, the 3,200 seating capacity of Patrick Gym was way more than the Catamounts (a catamount is basically the same mountain lion native to all of North America) required, since the team tended to win about a fifth of its games. My memories of Patrick Gym all involve a basketball in my own hands, during endless pickup games, and even my own mediocrity is less forgettable than that of our Hoop Cats.

But times somehow changed, and the Tom Brennan the university hired out of nowhere to take the helm of the team in the mid-80s has evolved into a fair coach and a local personality of immeasurable legend. He also scored two major recruiting coups at the turn of the century in Rhode Island's T.J. Sorrentine and local boy Taylor Coppenrath. In the last few years, the team has gone 21-11, 22-8 and is now 21-5 heading into potentially hosting the conference championship, which they won the last two years, earning them the right to get worked in the first round of the NCAA Tournament by a national powerhouse.

This year, the two stars are seniors, the coach is retiring -- going out on top, it seems -- and anybody with a realistic sense knows that the last four years are not likely to come along again soon, unless the school's (and the state's) boundless enthusiasm for the team somehow carries over into an improbable new era of good coaching and recruiting. So it's been a year-long party -- UVM being a nationally ranked party school, at least back in the day -- and has even included a feature on the team on ESPN2's The Season. Seriously, when you went to a college whose hoop team couldn't get highlights on the local news, and twenty years later they're on national TV and you're watching them three time zones away... it's like if someone told you during the Victor Kiam era that the Patriots were on the verge of becoming a model franchise for all of sports. There is just no way to convey the depth of my shock, other than to keep shaking my head.

Amidst all that, the team has played pretty well, although they lost the only two games I got to watch on cable, at Boston U. and Nevada. Coppenrath, an inside monster who some say has NBA potential, carries too much of the load when Sorrentine isn't hitting from deep or one of the other 4-5 serviceable players isn't picking up the scoring slack. Nevertheless, at last glance the Catamounts' RPI rating was 20th in the nation, which someone besides me thinks is really important. So the thinking goes, if they show up for the otherwise-meaningless and anticlimactic season finale at Maine this weekend, they are in decent shape for an at-large NCAA bid at worst, and with a good showing in the America East Conference tournament, a more humane seeding in the low double-digits.

Update: They chunked it at Maine, resting Coppenrath and Sorrentine with nagging injuries. Prolly the smart move, methinks. I can't believe the selection committee will look too closely at a game where these guys didn't set foot on the court. /update

This is a feel-good story for a nice community in a beautiful, quiet state, for a fan base completely without cynicism (last I checked), and for one of college basketball's classic underdogs. Of course, midnight for most of these Cinderellas occurs somewhere close to halftime of the opening round, and a worst case but still plausible scenario involves the dreaded initials N-I-... I can't even say it. We don't care. It's always more important to the average UVMer to have fun, and this has been more fun than the 1991 ECAC hockey tournament and the 1993 NCAA Skiing Championships put together. We've never won jack... we are really happy to be there, and don't care who knows it.

Thursday, February 24, 2005

New Links

For the first time in, well, ever, I have revamped the Links somewhat. If you're bored and love baseball, you can get lost for hours in this maze of opinion, fact, numbers, analysis, snarky remarks, and general merriment. To say nothing of what happens when you start looking at their links.
In With a Whimper

The paucity of entries this week, other than another flu bout, owes to the fact that I am finding it almost impossible to say anything interesting about anything. Despite the media's daily reportage that generally focuses on rehashing last year with the conclusion that 2005 holds more fireworks in store, the fact is there is virtually nothing happening that counts as news. Let's face it, in spring training the only thing that matters is that the players you were counting on don't get hurt. Occasionally a rookie sensation will emerge, or a veteran player's fortunes will suddenly appear to take a dramatic turn for the better or worse, but even these stories turn out to be mirages more often than not. Trust me, I have drafted more fantasy players based on Peter Gammons' "who had a great spring" recommendations than I care to admit. It's not pretty. So even those stories are rarely worth the zeroes and ones that generate them.

But, since you pay good money to access this site, I will nonetheless push on with various predictions for the coming season, starting with handicapping the pitching staffs of the Sox and Yanks, and perhaps trying to get a handle on other teams, as if they were relevant. CW says the Yankees have helped themselves by shoring up their rotation, but at least one prominent Yankee blog insists that the Yanks' inattention to defense will diminish their pitching gains -- a concept that should not seem alien to anyone who has ever rooted for Derek Lowe. Anyway, with all the player movement around, there is plenty to speculate about, and perhaps even apply some empirical evidence.

P.S. As for the Sox, no news is good news. And there is NO NEWS.

Update!! Looks like my "no news" message was wildly off base and premature: Dan Shaughnessy has just posted an article entitled Tossing Around Some Random Thoughts. This is huge. Huge!

Monday, February 21, 2005

Enough Already

OK, I get it, A-Rod is a jerk. And it's been fun to take pot-shots at him in the offseason, especially after his loathsome interview last month. But the media's attempts to draw in the players on both teams to a Red-Sox-versus-A-Rod wrestlemania conflict is getting ridiculous. Worse, it plays into the pettiest tendencies of Red Sox fans to really hate a Yankee or two. Things are different now. We won, hard as that may be for people to accept. And as the winners, we shouldn't feel bothered by the antics of players on lesser teams. It's called acting regal.

My guess is the players on both sides are getting bloody tired of this theme, and with the exception of a few Shaughnessy columns it will disappear before the first Central American visa delay story. A-Rod's milquetoast responses of late demonstrate that the Yankee mystique has recently assumed a human form and stopped by to coach him on toning down the rhetoric. Sox players will likely follow suit. And maybe (he said, hoping against hope), Sox fans will too.

Sunday, February 20, 2005

Left Wondering

I've said it once and will say it many more times: if this Sox lineup stays happy and healthy, they will score 1000 runs. But opposing lefthanded pitchers won't be to blame. As deep and powerful as this Sox lineup is, the Sox as a whole are geared up to beat righthanded pitching -- which, thankfully, covers about three-quarters of the leage. But the following players' OPS dropoffs versus lefties in 2004 show five key Sox regulars clearly worse off -- if not downright bad -- against lefthanded pitching:

Damon .742 OPS (-115)
Ortiz .784 (-199)
Millar .817 (-40)
Mueller .710 (-101)
Nixon .321 (-566)

OK, Nixon's sample is skewed, so consider instead his three year run against lefties includes a .641 OPS, about 250 points off his overall. You get the picture. Of the remaining regulars, Manny is an equal opportunity destroyer, Varitek (.988) and Renteria (.972) are noticeably better against lefties and approaching MVP level, and Bellhorn has about a .120 inprovement to .899. In the last three years, that differential has actually been more like .150.

Still, the dropoffs are no small matter. Damon is the team sparkplug, Ortiz is half of the mid-order Dominican slugging monster, and Nixon, Mueller and Millar are guys that at least keep the pressure on when not killing you. The fact that lefties reduce this threat so significantly definitely changes the dynamic. Remember Scott Kazmir last season, tying the team in fits? Well, if anyone doubts that Randy Johnson is this year's most important offseason addition, here's more proof.

One radical idea for a lineup change: the Sox brought in Jay Payton as a fourth outfielder, and as a righty he's likely to spell Nixon some. But he's a limp noodle against all pitchers. Meanwhile, Doug Mirabelli rang up a Manny-like 1.000 OPS against lefties last year, and is a dead pull hitter made for Fenway. Also, Youkilis hits lefties decently enough. So here's my lineup against lefties:

Damon
Bellhorn
Renteria
Ramirez
Varitek
Millar
Mirabelli
Youkilis
Mueller

Millar can man right field, Youkilis can play first, or trade off with McCarty (if he's back?), and Mirabelli or Varitek can share catching and DH, depending on Wakefield's to do list that day. Damon has to play through his issues with lefties, owing to his fielding at least, but Ortiz can sit on the bench, daring opposing managers to pull the starter for a righty reliever at any point. Would I do this on opening day in Yankee Stadium against Johnson? Not a chance. Sit Nixon then, but Ortiz has to be in there. But the other 40 or so starts by lefties? Could be worth a try. The Sox brought Mirabelli back because they think he can be pretty dangerous in this limited role, so use him, dammit!

Wednesday, February 16, 2005

At First Glance

Much of the spring handicapping in the AL will justifiably focus on the relative strengths of the Sox, Yankees, Angels and Twins pitching staffs. In fact, it says here that the Sox do face significant questions in their pitching -- not because they hired a bunch of chumps, but because there are just a lot of unknowns. So be it.

So that half of the game remains shrouded in mystery. But not the other half. Handicapping the AL's best offense -- Boston's -- is a snap. Let's run down (briefly, by my standard at least) the contest between baseball's two best lineups, if only to confirm that this is the year the Sox score 1000 runs.

[And by the way, I am listening to the Hoodoo Gurus on iTunes right now, so I am feeling particularly optimistic and otherwise right with the world. Factor that in.]

First, the lineups:

Jeter
Womack
A-Rod
Sheffield
Posada
Matsui
Williams
Giambi?
Tino/Sierra/?

Hm, not too shabby. Now for the Sox. Since Renteria comes in with big credentials, it's possible for some of these names to move around a bit, but let's just take a stab at it:

Damon
Bellhorn
Manny
Ortiz
Millar
Nixon
Varitek
Renteria
Mueller

Yumpin Yiminy... a batting champ ninth, a $12mil shortstop potentially 8th (unless they move Bellhorn here). First impression is, the Yankee order is scary but top-heavy; if you're not down by six runs when you get to the 7th hitter, you might skate by OK. With the Sox, some of the names and numbers at the top are not as glitzy, but there are absolutely no breaks. OK, let's run it down, in broad brushstrokes, no nitpicking the numbers:

C: Posada vs. Varitek If I've said it once... these guys are about equal, and the two best all-round catchers in the AL. Pick 'em.

1b: Giambi/Tino vs. Millar Let's assume for a moment that Giambi is the player he once was. This is a guy with a career on base average of .411, with peaks in the Bonds zone, .470 or so. Returning to Earth... Giambi is nowhere near his former self! One of the foregone conclusions of the season is that Giambi can't hit without the juice, he hasn't now for two seasons, and that's before we get into the distractions he's going to face. Tino Martinez returns to back him up, but let's be clear: the Yankees didn't get rid of him three years ago by accident. Millar's a nifty player and his .383 OB% last year belies a hot second half, after some adjustments, when that number went to .408 with solid power (.566 slugging). Medium-large advantage, Sox

2b: Womack vs. Bellhorn My favorite Yankee blog has been screaming all winter about the decision to dump Cairo for Womack. This is a guy with a career OPS of .681, a guy who had no less than three teams give up on him in the previous year before putting together a nice season among the giants of the Cardinal lineup. His five homers last season are two more than Bellhorn hit in one week of the postseason. One memorable week. Big ad, Sox.

3b: A-Rod vs. Mueller Other than karma, which I'll give a rest to for now, this is a big up for the Yanks. I can't decide if A-Rod is the gamer baseball wants him to be or the asshole Bostonians see. His glovework at third was pretty admirable, considering he hadn't played there since, what, high school? And since this is a discussion of offense, well... moving right along. Mueller brings an awful lot to the Sox when healthy, but his knee is already acting up, and the snow hasn't started melting. Way ad, Yanks.

ss: Jeter vs. Renteria I've spent too much time deconstructing Jeter and not enough on Renteria. Obviously Edgar brings something that had the Sox drooling over him all winter, even with O-Cab begging to come back. But it's a new league, and Jeter is Jeter. Ad, Yanks.

lf: Matsui vs. Manny Matsui is the only pricey newcomer on the Yankees I really like. But Manny is a hall-o'-famer in the making, and I dropped a c-note on a Manny jersey last October. In fact, Manny has even entered one-name status, like Nomar, or Pele. Ad, Sox.

cf: Williams vs. Damon The Yanks spent the offseason contemplating making Bernie a DH, and the NY media/blogosphere spent the time writing his epitaph. He's a core Yankee, so I wouldn't write him off just yet, but Damon rebounded into a true all-star and deadly leadoff hitter, while catching everything in center. And now he's in his contract year. Med-large ad, Sox.

rf: Sheff (hello children) vs. Nixon Sheff is rock-steady at his near-MVP level, even when mouthing off about teammates. But if Nixon can stay on his feet, this won't be a big mismatch. Ad, Yanks.

dh: Giambi? Sierra? Bubba Crosby? vs. Ortiz Ouch. Just ouch. Biggest mismatch on the field, Sox.

Count 'em up: 5-3-1 in favor of the Sox, with the Yanks clearly better at one position, the Sox clearly better at three. All this is relatively subjective, and you can argue round and round about the corner outfield and middle infield positions, but the bottom line is, the Sox have exactly zero weak spots in their lineup, while the Yankees have a huge hole at DH or 1b or both, and the immortal Tony Womack an Earth-bound meteor in waiting. The worst-case for the Sox (new injuries aside) is that Mueller can't get back to form, but even there a serviceable-to-blossoming Kevin Youkilis could hold the position down OK. For now, Youkilis, Jay Payton and Doug Mirabelli are first off the bench, compared to Yankee subs like Rey Sanchez and whoever doesn't get the DH or first base jobs. Oy.

It will take some breaks, but if this Sox lineup can stay healthy and happy, they are a solid favorite to crack 1000 runs. The Yanks scored 897 last year, 50 fewer than the 2004 Sox, and it's hard to see where the Yanks have done anything to improve, other than giving Sheffield a nice long vacation for his shoulder. Most likely the matter will all be decided by pitching, but if the Sox can keep pace on the mound, well, this team will look a lot like the one that hung ten runs on the Yanks last time they visited the Bronx.
Intercat Aggression

This is so sweet. Sheff goes after Giambi. Actually, he may have been speaking more "matter of fact," but there is no way this goes for less than three New York news cycles, concluding with a summit consisting of at a minimum, Steinbrenner, Torre, Sheff (hello children), Giambi, and if there is any justice, Victor Conte of BALCO Labs.

If I've said it before... the newly constructed Yankees of 25 massive egos is a far cry from the Yankees of Bernie and Jeets and Tino. Here is exhibit #1,873.

Monday, February 14, 2005

The Juice

Lots of ink spilled on Jose Canseco's book. Personally I think the guy is pretty strange and all, but I can't imagine him exposing himself so much if he's just making it all up.

A threshold question here: there seems to be enough evidence, or at least logic, to say that steroids give baseball players an unfair advantage, either through bat speed or leg drive or maybe just confidence. The question is, what does this mean for the game we've been watching?

Compare to cycling, something near and dear to the hearts of several of our readers. Baseball is a team/individual sport, whereas cycling is an individual/team sport. By this I mean, in cycling team tactics will sort out the eventual winner more often than not, but to even have a chance of winning you have to be an outstanding individual. And team or no team, if you're the strongest, you can win on your own; you're just better off with some help. In cycling, if the top guys are juicing, and we now know that they often have been, then it really does make a mockery of the sport.

I'll reverse the description for baseball: each pitch is individual versus individual, but the goal is to win the game, and after nine innings you pretty much need at least ten guys to do their job to have a chance. So if two or three of them are juicing, well, that still means 90 percent of the time you're watching baseball unenhanced by chemistry. [Assuming the pitcher is au natural... if pitchers were doped, the slope would get much more slippery.]

Since the accusations so far are very anecdotal, I will say that the national pasttime doesn't look too stained to me. Assuming Canseco got his Texas buddies on the juice, all I can say is I don't recall them ever winning anything of consequence. Maybe he should have given something to Rick Helling instead of Palmeiro. Until this scandal works its way down past the #6-7 spots of the batting order, I think its effects will be individual, not on the sport.

Unfortunately, the perception is of a greater scandal that really exists, because it calls into question the most cherished records: the single-season and maybe career homer records. Bonds is an admitted juicer, and despite McGwire's denials, the evidence doesn't look good. He already admitted to taking andro, a lesser cousin of some sort, and he looks like a 'roids poster boy. Couple that with Canseco's accusations and... well, it's hard to prove a negative, so if he's innocent, I feel sorry for him. The stain is indelible.

But it's just the homer record. Homers don't win games, and unless Bonds hit all of those 73 homers in the late innings of close games, I would say there are too many thousands of untainted at-bats in the mix to say that his cheating ruined the game. Baseball needs to clean up its act, but I don't see the evidence that the damage goes very far.
Bedtime

This is the last Patriots thread before the draft. They seem to be well on their way to reconstructing the staff they need, and the personnel decisions are pretty uneventful. So I will leave you with one last experience. I was reading Sports Ill yesterday, and at the back they had a nice piece on how Deion Branch called all his coaches, one by one, all the way back to junior high, on the morning of the Super Bowl to thank them for helping him get where he is. Very touching story, clearly the guy is a class act all the way. And at the end he mentions spending time with his two kids: Deiontay and Deiondre. Sort of a kinder, gentler George Foreman.

Friday, February 11, 2005

Rites of Spring: Yankee Bashing

And so it begins anew... with a juicy topic: Jason Giambi's Chinese finger trap of an existence. He is an incredibly sad figure right now, trying to look contrite and evasive at the same time in order to quiet the bad news. Giambi's predicament is that, along with Bonds, he is the first active player to confess to steroid usage. Well, in the grand jury; he won't confess in public because his idiot lawyer told him not to; more on that in a moment. Anyway, as the first to get the Scarlet S on his uniform, he will always be associated with it, sorta the way Buckner will never live down his error, only in Giambi's case he deserves it. So Giambi is looking at a career, and a life beyond baseball, permanently clouded with shame. Try as he might, there ain't a damn thing he can do about it.

His press conference, by all accounts, made matters worse by raising his shame all over again, and doing nothing to atone. Blame his lawyers... sure, it might hurt his legal position in any indictments or civil suits for him to go around admitting he took steroids, but I am not sure what possible legal exposure would come with that -- they were not illegal when he took them, just frowned upon. Could he be sued for defrauding the fans? Sounds too stupid even for that fan base. So if his legal interests are as overblown as I think they may be, then his lawyers were complete idiots for sending him out there to evade questioning. Had he bared his soul, well, we Americans are forgiving types, and at least Yankee fans would be happy to forgive him and move on to other matters, like baseball. But because his lawyers thought there may be a legal interest to be protected, he had to go out there and piss off his fan base all over again. Smooth.

As a lawyer, I have to say there is nothing more pathetic than overly risk-averse lawyers. [Well, except for a broken down ex-'roid freak ballplayer.] Lawyers are supposed to advise their clients on the law, but there is nothing in the ethics code which says that stricly-legal advise cannot be counterbalanced against common sense. In other words, it may be that the lawyer's only duty is to say "this is your legal exposure," but it wouldn't kill them to add "however, that legal exposure would be vastly outweighed by some good P.R. right now." Minimizing one's legal risk isn't always the most important thing in life. By acting like a slippery politician, Giambi may have avoided giving fodder to any litigants. But he also antagonized the skeptics, which won't gain him any of the friends he so badly needs right now, it won't help his play this year, it won't help him with any contracts or endorsements, and ironically it won't help him avoid lawsuits when (if ever) his confession does come out. Did Arn Tellem mention that when he made Giambi clam up? I seriously doubt it.

One final note on this: it's so pathetic the way Yankee players are made to throw themselves on the altar of Yankee worship. Giambi's confession of having sinned against "the Yankees," which he conspicuously separated from the players, suggests that he has been whipped into viewing the little NY symbol as some sort of god -- and one in need of respect and appeasement at that. Just as the Pittsburghians mythologize their Steelers into one-dimensional failure, so too does Steinbrenner and co. run the risk of making the Yankee myth an unappeasable deity which hangs over the franchise and threatens to take all the fun out of the game. Look at the players in game 7 of the ALCS and see the contrast: between a loose group of Sox who didn't take themselves or their mission overly seriously but rather concentrated on just playing as hard as they could, and the Yankees burdened by expectation derived from the great myth. When those players stained the myth with history's most spectacular post-season flop, the burden became all that much more difficult to bear. Just as good pitching beats good hitting, a happy team will generally beat a miserable, uptight one in the end.

Monday, February 07, 2005

...And So On

The Pick: Philly learned one hard lesson about the Patriots, or should have, early on. Don't piss off the Patriot defense with cheap bullshit plays. Namely, the pick someone (Mitchell?) threw on Gay to spring Owens for a long gain down to the red zone. Unless I misread the rules, an offensive player is not allowed to tackle a DB in man coverage on another receiver, even on crossing routes. The Patriots got mad, yelled at the refs, then set out to get even. Next three plays: 16-yard sack up the middle; INT (called back on a chippy contact call); INT. Someone out in media land had better ask the Pats about this play. I am certain they were pissed, and channeled that fury into some quick payback.

The Declaration: It's Faux Network, so I am sure this was offered with the worst of intentions, but I definitely liked the pregame piece where they got various football people from all walks to read segments of the Declaration of Independence. The D of I is easily the most underrated document in world governance. It kicks ass over the Constitution, which is really just an attempt to put the lofty ideals of the D of I into some institutional practice. The Constitution is all "Tax increases shall originate in the House" and "You don't have to quarter soldiers," while the Declaration is poetry. Also, where the Declaration says "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" (inappropriate capital letters omitted), the Constitution says "life, liberty and property," a change that spawned a million stupid lawsuits and many times more "Keep Out" signs. Hey, property has its place, but for my money the Constitution is Pippen to the Declaration's Jordan: a decent document on its own, but which still owes its existence and then some to the vastly superior Declaration. Incidentally, there was bipartisan agreement beforehand on the coming Patriot win, although the elder Bush appeared to short out his microphone with a long strand of drool before Clinton came in to offer a more eloquent rationale. Damn, I miss the 1992 election.

The Successor: Eric Mangini is widely speculated as a successor to the dearly departed Romeo Crennel. But was that him taking a Belichick tongue-lashing after the last Eagle TD, a 30-yard strike where the immortal Dexter Reed got left in single coverage? Not the best karma on the sidelines there for the moment. Hopefully the best man will get the job, irrespective of that brief, ugly scene.

The MVP: Hard to disagree with the choice, but you get the sense that the selectors had more than last night in mind. This was partly a choice driven by the last selection -- Brady, again -- and a desire to share the wealth. Brady has too many Cadillacs (one), and he's in a lawsuit with Cadillac over pirating his name. Plus he spent much of the offseason publicly criticizing their slow attempt to make good on their promise. So no way did they want to deal with him again. But also the Patriots have at least five MVPs in every game, and giving it to the QB by default is boring and, after a while, unjust. Branch was pretty much equal to his last SB performance, which was MVP quality, so the voters clearly put the two games together and called it award-worthy. As I said, no problem here, though I hope if/when we win again they'll look for a defensive player. Share the wealth.
Second Best

Now that we won, I will gladly offer my respect to the Iggles. They were clearly the second-best team in football this year, the best-equipped team to beat the Patriots, if anyone could do it. Granted, the Patriots didn't turn in their best effort, holding themselves back with penalties and one amateurish turnover. But for 20 minutes of football the Eagles brought a complete game at them, and the Patriots were back on their heels. Nobody else has done that this year, at least not without the Patriots contributing some big mistakes. Philly had the Patriot offense standing still, and although they floundered on their first few series, their offense played with some authority at times too. In the end, the Patriots solved them, like they do everyone... hey, the Eagles are human. But as much as Pittsburgh and Indianapolis still think they were the best teams in football this year, I would say they can only battle for third.

Also, is it possible to both love and hate Terrell Owens? He is a self-absorbed jerk, and gets in the face of his teammates on the sidelines sometimes, which usually does way more harm than good. But he's a great player who puts winning above all else. And his racial politics speech after the game made me like him a tad more -- I love it when guys rattle the system, and I think he has a point. He should be called a warrior just like Brett Favre.

The Iggles' coaching staff is probably also about second-best, if only by default. Who else, Pittsburgh? Please. See below. These guys are dinosaurs. Indy? Their defense has sucked for a decade, and where do they spend their money? Wide receiver. San Diego? If you can't beat the Jets at home in the first round, with a healthy team... you are what your results tell you. Another NFC team? What-ever. Philly had a solid game plan for the Pats coming in. They got thoroughly outcoached during the game, relying on the blitz over and over despite fourteen consecutive screen plays resulting in first downs. And the hurry-up offense will be talked about for years to come, although not in hushed tones. But they put together a game that pushed the Patriots to their limits, so hats off to them. And to the players who almost made it work.

No Way Never

So yeah, I respect the Iggles. But Donovan McNabb will never beat the Patriots. Not during this run.

They can be beaten, of course. In the last two years, the Patriots have lost four times, all days on which they beat themselves with turnovers. So they can throw games, but sitting around waiting for them to do that in a big game seems pretty futile. The other option is to beat them at their own game, i.e. bringing a complete team that makes plays and eliminates mistakes. Philly is a complete team, but Donovan McNabb makes way too many mistakes. He has played two games of consequence (i.e. forget preseason) against these Pats, yesterday's 3TD/3INT affair, and the game last season where, if memory serves me, all 25 of his passes were intercepted before they put in A.J. Feeley. Face it, all those articles out there saying he was almost good enough are full of it. He made some nice throws, but he committed three turnovers and attempted two more -- the negated fumble on the first series and the called-back INT -- that could have ended the game early. You can't play that kind of football and beat these Pats. Ever. And McNabb plays that way all too often.

Dynasty.com

I understand why Belichick doesn't like to use the word. Each team is different, every season is its own adventure, and invariably the team that gets together in July is not the same as the one that walked off with the trophy six months earlier. This is not only technically true, but is also a means for Belichick to motivate the latter group. Sure, 85% of you won a trophy last year, but this is a new team and you ain't won jack yet. Your record is 0-0.

I understand why some purists will also decline to use the word. The Celtics won nine championships in the 1960s. UCLA won ten NCAA titles in a row. The Yankees won some ridiculous number of titles during the Ruth and Mantle eras, respectively. The Simpsons were the funniest show on TV for three presidential administrations. Those are dynasties. Three out of four years? Bah.

But it's all relative. I'm a fan, I see the Patriots as a continuing concern stretching back from my childhood and beyond. If there is turnover every year, well, they're still the Patriots as far as my rooting interest is concerned. I also think that it shouldn't take ten titles before we crown a dynasty; relative to the current era of salary caps, limited free agency, and all the other factors that flatten out competition in the NFL, for one team to remain on top for any notable length of time is remarkable. As we all know, three times in four years is essentially unheard-of.

Finally, it's not so much what they have done already but what they are in the midst of. The Patriots have established a sustainable formula, they face almost no key free agency decisions other than Vinatieri (who by all accounts is staying right where he is), they have more talent on the way from the injured list (Watson, maybe Law or Poole?) and probably another fine draft, and (especially) if Law departs they'll have room to add some vets, the best of whom will probably look first to New England if their priority in life is to win a title. The rich will get richer. Until Belichick goes, this team will at least be a Super Bowl threat, if not favorite, if not prohibitive favorite. Like I said in past postings, the nature of football is that some key factors are beyond the team's control, particularly injuries, but the Patriots have narrowed the variables with their great coaching, their depth, and their flexibility. What other team could lose its shutdown cornerback and subsequently go 11-1 with a Super Bowl? The future is radiant, as they say in Bolshevik-speak, and I don't need to wait until the run is over to call it what it is. Whether they finish with three or ten titles, the Patriots are in the midst of a dynastic run. Enjoy. Talk amongst yourselves.

Saturday, February 05, 2005

One Last Pregame Note

I did find one final morsel to discuss -- not about the game, which is long since overanalyzed, and the Patriots are almost impossible to break down anyway, besides saying "they don't beat themselves." Not on Sunday, at least.

No, this came from Jerome Bettis doing an appearance on ESPN. His comment on the AFC Championship was, in effect, losses aren't hard to swallow when you know you got beaten by a better team, but here they just needed fewer turnovers and they would've been fine.

My first reaction was, he has taken a lot of blows to the head over the years, and perhaps is in a permanent state of concussion. But my second was, what a complete ass. This is why Patriots fans and sometimes players continue to insist they don't get their due. Here, if you take away a garbage-time score, it was 41-20, in Pittsburgh. You'd think that a team that went 16-1 up to then, and surrendered the fewest points in the league, would notice that their opponent ran up 41 on them. At home. Secondly, "we were better except for the turnovers?" Ah, right. Derek Lowe pitched great except for the grand slam he gave up in the 9th. Lance rode a great race except when he forgot to eat and bonked on the Joux-Plane. See if you can spot what's wrong with these sentences. Jeezus, if you can't close the deal, you're not as good as the other team.

This is a uniquely Pittsburgh response. I swear, people there are completely caught up in the Steeler-Cowher myth. It's not 1979, you don't win simply by putting on a certain uniform, you're not better than other teams because you're the Steelers and they aren't. Bettis is probably the worst offender. Here he is complaining that they should've won but for turnovers. One of which was his, although it was irrelevant because he had already been completely stuffed on 4th down because he's a worthless side of beef who can't succeed except running straight ahead into defenses that somehow weren't expecting him to. Bettis' own coach made the suicidal decision to kick a field goal after three tries from inside the 5 because he admitted to himself that they couldn't beat the Patriots on short yardage. Cowher's sin was not trying anyway, since a field goal did no good, but Cowher was dead right when he looked at 4th down on the 2 and thought, there is no way we can score here. Bettis can't see stuff like that, just as Cowher can't see past the three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust mentality left over from their lost glory days, just as most Pittsburgh fans can't understand, once again, how the Steelers could lose to a team from New England.

Well, sorry, but if the scoreboard means anything, New England was twice as good as you, on your own field. Deal with it. Really, that's the Patriots fans' message to the rest of the league: the Patriots ARE as good as their gaudy results. Deal with it.

Thursday, February 03, 2005

Last Super Bowl Post

Pre-game at least. I have completely given up on saying anything worthwhile about the game. Others really should follow suit. Anyway, I'd call it Patriots 28, Eagles 10. You??

A-Rod's Descent into Madness

On Jan. 31, ESPN.com ran an update on A-Rod wherein he makes the following comments:

* "My approach is to win championships. The only way to do that is to be myself, and to take care of my world. With my talent people will follow naturally."

* "I was brought here as the final piece of the puzzle, and we were supposed to win," A-Rod said. "For that, I accept the blame."

* He also describes the Slap Heard Round the World as "a smart play, one I would've made again. In the heat of the moment, you do things sometimes out of instinct. I thought it was a smart play, and we almost got away with it. We put an umpire in the position of having to turn over a call like that in Yankee Stadium. It gave us a shot. (Umpire) Jim Joyce told me, 'if you'd knocked the crap out of (Arroyo) it would've been legal because he was in your way.' So if I had a chance to do it again, I would've tried to run him over. Even though I probably would've hurt someone with my weight and velocity, dropping my shoulder down."

* Earlier last month, he described Schilling as whining and pouting in the dugout after Game 1, as if nothing happened subsequently to, say, even the score.

Let's break this down. The first quote shows what an arrogant jerk Rodriguez is. Can you imagine a single member of the Post-Pedro Sox saying anything remotely like this? Has a single Patriot, including the immortal Brady, even thought anything like this? Not bloody likely. Let's say, for argument's sake, that there are four levels of self-absorption: Level 1-- almost normal (any one of us, after sinking a long putt for triple bogey); Level 2-- mildly comical (e.g., "the Can got to be the Can"); Level 3-- irritating/comical (Freddie Mitchell speaking of himself in the third person); and Level 4-- pathological (A-Rod). What separates A-Rod from Freddie Mitchell is that Mitchell's showmanship is at least partly a game. A-Rod appears to be completely serious. Back away slowly.

The second quote is classic hollow responsibility speech, meant to show the fans how manly he is as long as you don't think about what a completely empty expression this is. I would put it roughly on par with guys who apologize to their wives for getting drunk and hitting them. Uttering some pat, disingenuous phrase does less than nothing to absolve the guilty. I think it actually compounds the sin.

The third quote speaks for itself. Is this how the game was meant to be played? What normal person would actually be proud of this? In fact, not only is it the lowest form of baseball, it blew up in their faces!! The play arguably cost the Yankees dearly, since not only was A-rod called out but Jeter was sent all the way back to first. Also, can you imagine the scene if A-Rod had barrelled into Arroyo in that instance? Varitek would still be punching him, three months later. This quote is where A-Rod transitions from garden-variety punk to borderline psycho/member of the Bush cabinet.

The last part is somewhat anti-climactic; here A-Rod shows his debating skills by taunting the Sox' best pitcher about a moment that happened a week before the Yankees suffered history's most degrading collapse, at home, largely at the hands of the tauntee. This is slightly worse than the Sox taunting the Yankees for beating Klemens in the 1999 ALCS only to lose the series 4-1. Which, as I recall, Sox players were not inclined to do.

Taken together, we have an arrogant, vapid, classless moron. As they say, sometimes the best deals are the ones you don't make.

Wednesday, February 02, 2005

Energy

My favorite thing about Brady is his almost child-like energy when the Pats score, or win. I love it when he tackles his teammates in the end zone. It's pure joy. It also is, I am guessing, a clue to his success. Brady always has the exact right amount of energy and emotion. All week long he is sedate, not expending a drop of his precious resources any sooner than he has to. By game time he is way up -- but never too up. He seems to sustain his excitement throughout, but never seems overcome by it.

Not exactly Earth-shattering, but consider what most of the Eagles will be like in their first super bowl. Will they be able to contain themselves? Have they thus far? Will they still have enough left in reserve in the fourth quarter?

Just one distant observation.

The Best Call

On HBO's Inside the NFL, the team wags went around making their final predictions, all of which were for the Pats except Cris Collinsworth, who wouldn't say because he's working the game for some network. But Marino and Carter both talked about balance on offense, or turnovers, or some other factor, and Collinsworth threw in a few more. Then Costas summed it up better than all of them put together: he wouldn't be shocked if the Eagles won the game, but there's no way any sane person would pick against the Patriots right now. You can't honestly pin it down to any specific factor, because each game the factors seem to change, but one way or another they will not lose.

Well, that's how I feel. When the media start trying to break the game down into its constituent parts -- players, phases of the game, etc. -- I can't really see how the Patriots are as good as they are. I mean, the Eagles have fabulous talent at a number of key positions, and no real weaknesses anywhere. But Pittsburgh supposedly had great matchups against us, and we f*&^king destroyed them. Really, it defies explanation other than to say that they are a complete team, but I guess sometimes I still have trouble comprehending how incredibly great the Patriots are. So I guess I should lay off a few sportswriters when they too struggle to see it all. The one difference, though, is that even if I can't see it, I certainly know the greatness is there. No sane person can deny it anymore.

Tuesday, February 01, 2005

Drought!

97 days without a major sports championship, and counting. Seriously, something has to give. Come on Pats!

If you aren't hungry for another title, click here.

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