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Monday, September 27, 2004

What Next?

Friday night's loss to the Yankees had an air of final defeat to it that was utterly discouraging. They strutted around like they knew they could beat the Sox any time it mattered. And after two blowout losses in NY the previous weekend, it was hard to argue with them. Especially after they dismantled our supposed ace, again.

But then an odd thing happened. Pedro used a little reverse psychology, calling the Yankees his daddy after years of defiant talk and occasionally even performances. And by Sunday night, the Sox had actually redeemed themselves beyond what I thought was possible Friday. Yes, they didn't sweep, and they left themselves little chance at the division, though 3 games with 6 to play is hardly unheard of. But they blew out the Yankees, essentially did to them what the Yankees had done to the Sox the previous weekend, won the season series 11-8, prevented the Yankees from celebrating the division title in Fenway, virtually assured themselves of postseason action, and most importantly showed that we still hold an ace, if not the one they imagined. So, unless the Yankees only brought their intensity Friday assuming their ticket was punched, it actually wasn't a bad weekend after all. Oh, and Kevin Brown sank deeper into his season-long funk; Javier Vazquez didn't prove much; Wakefield was slightly less horrible than usual (Yankee killer?), and the offense started exploding again, after two weeks of nibbling frustration.

So, having obsessed over the Yankees enough on this site, let's just leave that race to its fate. 3 games in 6 days, you don't need my help with math. No, since we know we're in, let's review the 2004 Sox versus 2003.

Starting Pitching: Let me remind you that our #5 starter last year was John Burkett. He has essentially been replaced by Curt Schilling. Need I go on? OK, there's a more salient point: that Pedro isn't carrying the whole burden on his shoulders. Good thing too, since his performance has been uneven, especially when the Yankees are involved, as seems inevitable. Rather, Pedro is the #2 guy after Schilling, possibly the money-est pitcher taking the mound this postseason. Not the best pitcher, perhaps; Johan Santana gets the accolades. But Johan Santana hasn't done jack yet, and to underscore that point, he sports a postseason ERA of 7.71. Last October, in two starts, he lasted a cumulative 7 innings and gave up six earned runs. OK, he's better this year, but he was 12-3 last year in the regular season with an ERA of 3.04, less than half a run higher than his supposed breakout season this year. In other words, he's only marginally improved from a guy who mysteriously flopped in the 2003 playoffs. If this is his year... I'll wait til I see it. Anyway, if Francona had the cojones he'd make Schilling the first starter followed by Pedro, Lowe and Arroyo (or Wakefield, tough call). He won't, out of respect for Pedro, because baseball players trot out "respect" as the catch-all excuse the way Bush cites "terrorism."

Relief: Keith Foulke replaces Byun Hyung Kim as the closer. Need I go on? OK, yes, this is an interesting situation. Compared to last season, the Sox have more depth: a lefty specialist who, despite my epitaph a month ago has been useful; another guy (Leskanic) with closer experience; and two rubber-arms in Mendoza and Adams. Mendoza...some days he looks like it's 1999 again, he's a tempting pick for the postseason roster. But the downside is that Williamson is struggling to find himself, and Timlin and Embree haven't quite reached their dominance of last fall. So, yeah, this should be a better bullpen, but a year ago these guys inexplicably caught lightning in a bottle. And as great as Foulke usually is, he hasn't proven he can do it in October yet either.

Offense: Nomar is gone, taking his decent stats with him and leaving Orlando Cabrera and his slightly downgraded bat in his place. Bellhorn has surpassed everything Todd Walker did, but then Walker carried the team for the first week of the playoffs. Mueller has battled injury, and Nixon's season has been a near-total loss. And yet, this offense is at least as good as last year's record-setting bunch. Most of the lineup is where it needs to be, Manny and Ortiz are the new gold-dust twins, and the biggest difference of all is Johnny Damon. Unfrozen Caveman has been a true leadoff hitting sparkplug, posting his best numbers in years (and when you lead off, your numbers really do tell the story). Bellhorn is a mixed bag, but the guy gets on base better than Walker and sports his own more consistent power stroke. Varitek also looks like he's shaking off a horrible slump at last. And if Cabrera so much as makes contact, he'll probably contribute more than Nomar did last October, when his wedding plans finally got the best of him. If they just match the 2003 Sox' offense, they'll be serious contenders. So far, that's about what they've done. My wild-card is Nixon. He's getting that aura around him.

Defense: You know all about this part. The D rocks.

Tuesday, September 21, 2004

Two-fer Tuesday

8!

Am I dreaming or did a Sox player deliver a two-out hit with runners in scoring position? What's it been, two weeks? AS pathetic as the Sox offense has been, often it's a long overdue hit in a big situation to get things unstuck. Either that, or Sidney Ponson and his 5.-plus ERA. [7.-plus against the Sox this year.]

Schilling is just money. Unbelievable performance with the Sox offense offering no help whatsoever. Most pitchers, even the good ones, would feel the heat when their offense is mailing it in. Schilling appears to actually like it. Incidentally, is it really that difficult to hit Rodrigo Lopez?

Last week I predicted that the Sox would finish out roughly 9-9, or at least no worse, meaning the Angels, trailing by 5.5 games, would have to go 15-3 to win. Now it's a week later, the Sox have won three, dropped three, and won a fourth, while the Angels are officially treading water. The Sox have 12 games left, the Angels 11. If the Sox go 6-6, the Angels have to go undefeated to win, 11-1 to tie. It is officially ours to lose.
Blue Monday

Stuck on 10

* Is there still an argument about whether we should start Wakefield over Arroyo in the postseason, assuming someone wakes up and secures the Sox' spot in it? I think there's more of an argument that Arroyo is the #2 behind Schilling. If you look at recent history, at least, which you aren't supposed to do, but it's getting pretty tempting.

* The offense was the real letdown in NY this weekend. If you don't start scoring til the 7th, chances are you put too much pressure on the pitching staff and it showed. There's already an inordinate amount of pressure playing in the Bronx. You can't come from behind too often. Unfortunately, several Sox regulars seem to have peaked already -- not that it's so bad, since the August feast will be the reason we play in October. But right now Varitek looks lost at the plate, Ortiz's shoudler is hurting, and Mueller is struggling to stay healthy and sharp. Of course, August was so great because Francona had so many options on the bench when Reese, Mueller, etc. went down. Seems like a good time to start using Roberts, Youkilis, Reese, etc. When you're getting shut down by Meche, Kazmir, Lieber and Sturtze, you're not exactly on a roll.

* Despite the code-orange hazing delivered by one former friend named Watson, I would say one weekend does little to upset the analysis of how the respective current Sox and Yanks players have performed over the season I posted last week. Losing 2/3 hurts because there are two weeks left in the season, but is hardly a complete record on which to judge. Like I said, the Sox' offense is not on a high. Also, the Yankee starters are picking it up, especially Mussina, at the right time. But I wouldn't trust El Duque any further than I could throw him. He looked like a guy whose nice little comeback story struck midnight. Anyway, the final chapter will be written in Fenway. Might be a bit late, though.

Saturday, September 18, 2004

Daily Number

10. Not the pretty way tho'.

Friday, September 17, 2004

Two Numbers

11.

And 2.5.
Sox-Yanks Side By Side: Revisited

This spring I spent some 752 column inches comparing the Sox and Yanks side by side, trying to determine who had the better team on paper. Since then both teams have spent enough time on grass to necessitate a look back at my predictions to compare with current reality. If I were a serious writer, there is no way I would do this. Anyway, without further ado:

Posada vs. Varitek: In March I gave this one to Posada by a nose, but now... Similar numbers, unless you count Varitek's extra 40 ponts of average (is a walk really as good as a hit?), and Varitek is the heart and soul of the Sox. If Posada occupies the same role, it's not too obvious. Advantage Sox.

Giambi vs. Millar: Millar is a part-timer out there, spending more innings in the outfield than in the past. Still, in his part-time role, he's been game and even productive at times. Meanwhile, Giambi is battling West Nile Virus or something. Tony the Tiger is his replacement. Sox by default.

Wilson vs. Reese: Pokey was just fine til he got hurt, but that was at short, leaving most of the 2b duties to Bellhorn. Bellhorn is third among all second basemen in on-base %, sixth in slugging, fifth in homers, third in RBIs, third in runs. Wilson lost his job to Miguel Cairo, which is not easy to do. Sox.

A-Rod vs. Mueller: Moving right along... actually, a few notes here. Yeah, A-Rod has his usual gaudy power numbers, but as Jason Varitek said in reply to A-Rod's protest when Arroyo nailed him, "we don't throw at .260 hitters." To me, A-Rod is a fantasy player, and he doesn't exactly hurt his team in real life, but I just get the sense he doesn't help nearly as much as you'd think. Meanwhile, between injuries Mueller was making incredible clutch defensive plays, and sending his batting average rocketing up. In August he was better than A-Rod. But over the year, it's advantage Yankees.

Jeter vs. Nomar: How things change. Jeter wins hands down over what little we got out of Nomar, and thus far over Cabrera by virtue of his leadership and hitting. The guy is a total winner; his dive into the stands against the Sox was mind-boggling. Nomar stewed in the clubhouse while Pokey exceeded expectations on offense and met them in the field. Now it's Cabrera, who with his rejuvenated stroke and his incredible D, isn't all that far behind Jeter, or anyone else. Still, Yanks.

Matsui vs. Manny: Another easy one; Manny is a favorite for MVP. But I like Matsui as a player, which is to say I wish he'd get the flu and miss the rest of the season. His numbers are excellent, showing he's finally made the immense adjustment from Japanese baseball (.290 hitter, .900 OPS, 26 HRs, 99 RBIs) and his D is just as impressive. But Manny rules the universe. Sox.

Lofton vs. Damon: Lofton's 18 RBIs in 75 games gave Bernie Williams his old job back. Bernie hasn't discovered the fountain of youth; he's a .256 hitter with middlin' power, and that's before we look at how many of his 18 homers were to right in Yankee Stadium. Damon, meanwhile, has been sensational, leading the AL in runs, on track for 200 hits, and getting on at a .388 clip. While stealing bases and tracking down everything in center. In short, he's an ideal leadoff hitter and a solid defensive player. Ad: Sox.

Sheff (Hello Children) vs. Nixon: Not especially fair -- Sheff (hello children) is his usual MVP-esque self, while Nixon has been limited to a few dozen games. And life is too short to compare Sheffield to Gabe Kapler. Yanks.

Williams vs. Ortiz: Another changed lineup... This position gets shared in the Bronx by Williams, Tony the Tiger, and Ruben Sierra. I could add up their collective numbers, and I'm sure they'd be solid, but I served with David Ortiz, I knew David Ortiz. Tony Clark, you're no David Ortiz. Sox.

Starters:
Mussina/Brown/Vazquez/Contreras/Lieber vs.
Martinez/Schilling/Lowe/Wakefield/Kim


What the hell? Kevin Brown locked himself into Torre's doghouse and boarded up the windows. Contreras pitched his way out of New York forever. Vazquez is the author of a 22-run loss and a 13-run gem, in two weeks. Lieber is pedestrian, Mussina has been worse, and newly acquired ex- ERA champ Esteban Loaiza is a mess. El Duque rode in to the rescue with a minor league contract, and has run off 8 wins, or else this would be a complete disaster area. But they have still fought their way to the top of the AL. And both Mussina and Vazquez rang up shutouts in KC this week. And the pitching matchups this weekend allow the Yankees to miss Schilling. So they may survive.

Still, the Sox have enjoyed far more stability in their rotation, shedding only BK Kim for the surprising Arroyo, a seamless transition considering Arroyo began the season as the fifth starter and basically stuck. Pedro has been about average for him, and generally stellar in the second half, while Schilling is the de facto ace having rung up 20 wins. Derek Lowe would've been a subject to avoid at the all-star break, but that was three defensive changes and nine quality starts ago. Now he's a 14-game winner riding an ERA of about 3.50 for the last six weeks. Only Wakefield has fallen off of late, but his numbers are as Mussina-esque as his track record, so he may still be of some value soon. Hands down: Sox

Bullpen: The Yankees' bullpen is like a box of chocolates. After the first few decent ones, it's an endless landscape of anonymous, jelly-stuffed garbage. Seriously, Rivera needs little introduction, and Tom Gordon has been great (unless you count save opportunities, which you shouldn't), but now that Quantrill is permanently gassed after his league-leading 9000th appearance, how many Felix Heredias and Donovan Osbornes can you afford? The Yankee way is to use one guy as a bridge between a quality start and Mariano, but they can't count on the quality start, and the one guy's surgically repaired body is getting overworked. No, the new Yankee way is to keep hitting until Mariano is ready. And if they played Tampa in the World Series, this just might work.

The Sox bullpen, meanwhile, has had plenty of bumps in the road, but the hallmark of this organization, this year, is patience. Nobody panicked when Embree and Timlin lost their edge, or when Williamson got hurt, or Foulke went on his annual walkabout. And concerns over the fith and sixth spots, the lefty specialist, etc., got addressed as Theo picked up Curtis Leskanic, stuck with Ramiro Mendoza thru rehab, stuck with Mike Myers and threw Terry Adams into the mix for depth. Seriously, when the Sox make the playoffs, choosing a bullpen will be the most excruciating decision Francona has to make. Small ad: Sox

Manager: This might be Torre's best job on the bench. From the above transcript you can see this Yankee team is f-l-a-w-e-d. And yet, Torre has not let them fall apart. Francona has done his job, but he's no Torre. Yanks

Thursday, September 16, 2004

12

Wednesday, September 15, 2004

Magic Numbers

By my calc, it's 13: Anaheim is 5.5 games back with 17 to play. Ignore the half-game, since it's a fiction (it reflects the fact that the Sox have played one fewer game). If the Sox stay level with the Angels for 12 games (either our wins or their losses), then we lead by five with five to play, meaning one more win will do.

Among the remaining games on the schedule are: six with the Yankees, eight with Baltimore, four with Tampa. The Sox have mopped the floor with the D-Rays, handled the Yankees well (8-5), and gone 4-7 against the Orioles. Let's take a conservative guess that they will finish up 9-9. That means the Angels have to go 14-3 to beat out the Sox. But Anaheim's schedule includes six more games with Oakland, four more trap games against a Seattle team enjoying its Indian Summer, and a deadly trip to Texas. That's asking a lot of a rotation that includes Aaron Sele.

Even if Anaheim wins out, it would do so by beating Oakland and Texas head-to-head, meaning they would most likely win the division by taking down the other two teams left in competition with the Sox for the wildcard. Oakland, Texas and Anaheim are locked in a four-way scrum (with Seattle) for the rest of the season: starting two days ago, they all play each other six times. As it now stands, Texas is two back of Anaheim, while Anaheim is two back of Oakland, so Boston's magic number is 11 over Texas and 15 over Oakland. Since we're hypothetically addressing an Angel surge, you'd have to assume that Texas and Oakland would contribute by losing at least four of six to the Angels. If the Sox finish up going .500, those four losses alone eliminate Texas with two games to spare, while leaving Oakland two additional losses away from extinction. In other words, in the Anaheim-wins scenario, Texas and its loudmouth idiot owner are totally screwed, while Oakland would have to go 12-5 overall and 10-1 in those non-Anaheim games to fork over the division and still get the WC.

[Texas is 7.5 games back of the Sox in the WC, four back in their division. realistically, they can't win the WC, they can only win the division -- and they can only do that by destroying Anaheim AND Oakland.]

So, basically, if the Sox play .500 baseball, they are as good as in. They could only lose if Oakland and Anaheim both win at least 12 and 14 games, respectively. I predict Oakland will stab the Angels in the back and draw with the Rangers, though last night's debacle is no indicator.

Anyway, given the Sox' recent surge .500 ball over the last three weeks would be pretty lame. Of course, the other pathway to the playoffs is the division. Given their struggles with Baltimore, I would say the Sox need to win five of six with New York. No sense calculating magic numbers; if we don't win at least 4 of 6, forget the division. Splitting the series means the Sox need to make up three (or four) games playing mostly the Orioles, while the Yankees feast on Toronto six times, Tampa once more, and play three with a Twins team on cruise control. Whatever we think about the Yankees right now, the last two weeks they have proven they can still beat up on the weaklings. But win four of six and the Sox need only make up two games someplace. Win five of six, and we are effectively tied.

UpdateOne closing thought: Houston gets hot and makes it thru the WC to the series, and meets the Sox. Boston versus Houston, with a hypothetical game 7 two days before the ultimate Massachusetts-Texas showdown: election day. How cool would that be?

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

What's Goin On

* Sage made it to his first professional sporting event, Sunday's lame-ass Sox game at Safeco. In the parental sense, it was a success, at least in part because we showed up in the fifth inning, giving us 90 minutes of small-space parenting, which is about our limit. Of course, his enjoyment was lessened by a pitiful offensive performance by the Sox, and his dad's constant carping about the ridiculous lineup Francona employed that day. Why would you EVER sit Ortiz against a righty? Why use McCarty instead of Mientkiewicz? To Francona's credit, both were injured. And sitting Bellhorn for Pokey is acceptable when Lowe is pitching; besides, Pokey needs the at-bats to get ready for October. In retrospect, if Gil (ga)Meche had been his usual mediocre self (he wasn't -- located his curve and smoked his low/mid-90s fastball, a nice 1-2), it would have been brilliant strategy to use the bench, give some needed rest, etc. I'm just bitter it had to happen Sunday. I've been to Safeco twice now, once to see Gil Meche shut us down, and the other being the only game in 90 tries where the Sox blew a 9th inning lead and lost. And, for the record, Safeco is not a visitor's haven. Sox fans don't have anywhere near the impact they typically have at, say, Camden Yards.

* The Sox, however, are nearly in the post-season. Five games over the Angels is a lot for a team with a soft schedule, hot hand, and short season remaining. And the Angels are locked in mortal combat with Texas and Oakland for one last playoff spot, assuming the Yankees don't blow an 8 game lead over the wildcard leader. Four Sox starters have been certifiably excellent, with only the usually dependable Wakefield dropping off. The bullpen got a lot of rest in Seattle. Yesterday's off day was probably most welcomed, especially while the Yankees were getting their heads handed to them in Kansas City. Seriously, has a team ever won anything when it's had one game a week where it surrenders at least 15 runs? Tonight I will continue working on the Sox-Yanks mano-a-mano in prep for this weekend. In March I called it a dead heat... not so sure right now.

* Arizona did the Patriots a huge favor last week by playing the Rams very tough in St. Louis. Presumably, when Belichick got up today to explain why they need to take the Cardinals seriously Sunday, he had some fine proof to offer. As horrible as the Cardinal organization has been since, what, the Spanish-American War?, the fact is that any NFL roster, playing with motivation and the home field, can beat the defending champions. Particularly while the Patriots are still looking for defensive combinations and healthy hamstrings in the backfield. I certainly like the Pats' chances, but only if they play like it's Miami on the other side. I.e., all out.

Thursday, September 09, 2004

The Right Foot

Pessimists will say that the Patriots were lucky to win, but win they did, and there's an awful lot to be said for it:

* This is a big win. Belichick will vehemently deny that the win may have long term implications, because these guys don't handicap the season as a rule, but us armchair types have the luxury of doing so, and any idiot can figure out that the Patriots and Colts have a decent chance of jockeying for overall position in January. Well, give the Pats all tiebreakers in that one. If this game determines whether a postseason showdown happens in Gillette or the RCA Dome, this is a huge win. And if they'd lost, it would suck for all the same reasons, AND for ending the streak, and for going down ugly at home. All nice things to avoid. It's bad enough Brady got picked.

* It was hardly a pretty win, particularly on the defensive side, where the 24 points allowed is much less than it could have been. The Colts wasted four trips deep into Patriot turf. But style points don't count for much, especially in September. These are not the Chiefs, winning 38-35 in November and proving to anyone who knows the game that their defense is doomed. This is a Patriot defense that will likely be one of the league's better units. Fans just have to give them a few weeks to put things together. In general, opening games seem very chaotic and contain an element of preseason randomness to them. This one did too, on both sides of the ball for both teams (with the possible exception of the Colts' defense, whose misery is no mirage). So, unlike the postseason you can't really expect anyone to seize the game and win totally on merit; you just hope to get by, and the Patriots did.

* Colts fans will hardly be so sanguine. In the last year, they have seen the Patriots steal a game in their home, knock them out of the playoffs when they were riding so high, and now outlast them in last night's slugfest. They will be spewing venomous nonsense about how, in their minds, the Colts should have won out last year (playing the AFC Championship at home), and last night, and the Colts are clearly the better team, what with their golden boy QB and all. This game will no doubt drive them to distraction, and I for one am all in favor of rubbing it in. Yes, in some ways I am a very small person. But these guys were division rivals until they fled to their safe, 2-team AFC South. They aren't the Yankees (think Miami) but they aren't too far off. Screw em. Also, the Mannings are evil plastic robots. You can look it up.

* Incidentally, it's pretty hard to overlook the parallels to last season, when the Colts made the Patriot defense look even worse, only to be thwarted on the last play, when everyone was sure it was in the bag. When things are looking down, Willie McGinest is m-o-n-e-y.

* Cory Dillon looked as good as advertised. I like the 15 (?) carries, a modest number, since we're still in the September warmup period. This bodes well, as the Patriots have tended to improve their running game as the season wears on, because as they often say running games are based a lot on rhythm and feel, or in other words, repetition. Assume this is true. That means Dillon isn't likely to be a fantasy football stud for a month or so. But as opposed to years past, where that season-long evolution brought the Pats' ground effort from, say, a 3 (on the 10 scale) to a 6, the Dillon version will start at a 5 and work its way up from there. By December, when it matters most, if the key players are all healthy I would look for the ground game to be a major, major factor. Another football adage about the running game is that its success has a lot to do with remaining committed to it. If it's really awful a team may have no choice, but the Patriots' supposedly mediocre running game has pulled through in both Super seasons, largely because they stuck with it. So, expect them to stick with it again, and with Dillon, for it to pay off. Why everyone doesn't make the same commitment to running is beyond me. But, hey, if Dave Wannstedt and Bill Cowher can be considered geniuses in the NFL coaching fraternity...

* The Daniel Graham breakout is still a myth. How much Graham can be faulted for curling off a route on Brady's interception is a bit too much insider info for this lonely blogger, but he continues to be in the middle of disaster. But he caught a TD, so I guess he'll play another week.

* The streak lives on. Expect this to be the dominant theme for the next few weeks, if no upsets happen. Arizona on the road is a mystery, but the long week-plus should help players forget the Colts, work on stuff, and get focused. Assuming that goes well, then it's a week off, and off to Buffalo, then perhaps Miami at home for the record. Two weeks to get ready for the Bills is a mixed blessing, but the Bills have week three off too. Resting in week three is beyond stupid -- why can't they mix in all they bye weeks in November, when it means something? But at least the league appears to be making an effort to send off division rivals together.

* In other streak news, the baseball one got a dousing of cold water. I guess it's inevitable for the Sox to suffer a letdown after nine straight emotional games, eight of which they won. But I didn't move to Seattle to watch the Sox lay down for the worst Mariners team in a decade. The Yankees are winning all their patsies at home with the playing-for-2006 Devil Rays (not a typo), so it's incumbent on the Sox to keep pace. Losing 1.5 games in a single day should wake them up, and better, if I'm going to spend 50 bucks at Safeco Sunday. On the plus side, the difficult part of the Sox' schedule is officially over, save next weekend's showdown in the Bronx, which most people on our side see more as an opportunity than a problem. The Yankees, meanwhile, have to go to Baltimore after losing 2/3 to the O's at home, then to KC, and still have three with Minnesota in the mix. Their feast is over.

Monday, September 06, 2004

Smelling the Roses

Morcheeba on the headset on a calm Labor Day evening. We watched a dramatic sunset over the Olympic Peninsula, had a nice meal, pondered the beauty of life. Yep, when the Sox win 12 of 13 against the teeth of the AL, it just kinda feels like that.

Tonight's win over Oakland gave me a few thoughts to throw out there:

* Baseball is such a subtly beautiful game, when played properly like tonight. Last year's ALDS between the A's and Red Sox was some of the best-played baseball I've ever seen, and the regular season games this year have followed suit. So when the Sox dared the A's into walking Manny to load the bases in the 8th and pitch to Ortiz, it was high stakes poker. You had to figure they would walk Manny to get the lefty-lefty matchup with Arthur Rhodes on the mound, and with first base open. But Arthur Rhodes has very little lefty-righty splits; he gets by mostly on a hard, straight fastball and maybe a slider that doesn't look too terribly different from either side (far as us armchair guys can tell). Worse, he hasn't been especially sharp all season, so it wasn't exactly shocking for him to go down 2-0 on a patient hitter like Ortiz. But it was deadly... no place to put him, gotta come in, everyone in a six-state radius knows a fastball is coming, and Ortiz, an extreme fastball hitter, doesn't miss hard, arrow-straight fastballs when he expects them. Three runs score as Mark Kotsay uses a small chisel to dislodge the ball from the base of the center field wall. Game over.

* Meanwhile, the Red Sox are winning more than just games -- they are slowly pulling away in the karma counter. All the smiles in the dugout, the way Kapler picked up Roberts after their mild collision in the 8th; if I didn't know better I'd swear these guys are having fun. Contrast that with the Yankees, who are still working to erase the memory of a 273-0 loss to Cleveland last week. And who lost their #1 starter to a self-inflicted wound. The final indignity occurred today when they asked the league to make the D-Rays forfeit for electing to stay home with their families during the hurricane rather than have them flee their loved ones, hang around New York for a couple days, for the convenience of the Yankees and their fans. Randy Levine looked like a classic, whiny technocratic biyatch arguing for the cameras that the Devil Rays didn't follow the rules for hazardous travel on game days. The subtext for this isn't so much that the Yankees wanted a win when they didn't play, as that they didn't want another doubleheader later on. These are the kinds of details you sweat when your pitching staff has gone up in flames and your hated rival has made up eight games in less time than it took Carmen Electra to divorce Dennis Rodman. Meanwhile, Eric (Mister) Byrnes came up swinging at the wall like Kevin Brown when he missed a long foul ball. The A's have lost six of seven to the team that humiliated them last postseason. Worse, to Derek Lowe's team. Oakland looked a bit like the pressure was getting to them.

* Sox are starting to get some tremendous contributions from non-starters. Mendoza and Kapler have both been extremely useful, and Roberts pitched in a big catch and an RBI double that chased Zito. Even the injury bugs haven't slowed them down. It's too bad Damon is sitting after scorching Texas, but the team has hardly skipped a beat. Credit Theo for building a team with interchangeable parts.

Friday, September 03, 2004

Pats Notes

* It's been well chronicled that the team's 1-3 preseason is hardly cause for alarm. Other than laying down in Cincinnati, they dismantled the Eagles, got up 10 on the Panthers before the second string gave it up, and used the Jax game strictly as an audition for borderline roster spots. About all that was learned is that every team is getting up for the Pats, even in the preseason. I found the Carolina fans' ecstatic reaction to their late victory downright embarassing. They apparently haven't learned how to act like their team is the defending conference champ. Just flat stupid...

* My preliminary forecast for this team is that they may be a little confounding at first, though I think they'll be there when it counts. Many of the pieces remain in place from last year's unspeakably wonderful team, but subtracting Woody, shuffling the lines, tinkering at tight end... and adding Corey Dillon -- all this means it may take a little time for the offense to jell. Ditto the defense, not because of personnel so much as the new no-contact rules meant to punish the Patriots' DBs for destroying the collective will to live of the Colts receiving corps. Last year's magic team was offstride until October. This year's team should be further along in the passing game but behind in the run. Look for Brady to shoulder the load until the line learns where Dillon is.

* I gotta hunch about Ben Watson. OK, that's woefully unoriginal; anybody watching this preseason can see some flashy talent there. Lotta ink this summer about how Graham has improved, so maybe he'll hang onto his job. They strike me as somewhat different and possibly complementary players. At worst, there will be intense competition for reps at TE, and possibly a lot of 2-TE sets. At best, we'll have big targets all over opposing backfields -- and Brady loves those quick strikes to possession receivers. The big unanswered is, can we seriously call Daniel Graham a possession receiver? Does he need to go 8 games without a drop, muff or fumble first??

Thursday, September 02, 2004

Peak Performers, Part II

You will recall that the elite cream of baseball writers rather noisily predicted last offseason that the Red Sox' pitching upgrades, while sound investments, would be largely offset by a dropoff in offense, as apparently the entire team experienced career seasons at the plate in 2003. I analyzed the career-year theory on December 4, 2003, and found it to be largely a lazy, inaccurate assumption. To be fair, being an armchair blogger rather than a working sports journalist means my conclusions are unencumbered by an all-hot dog diet. But I believe in accountability, and now is as good a time as any to see if the 2004 season has borne me out.

Back in December I determined that Bill Mueller had a career year, but otherwise only Varitek, Ortiz and Nixon had exceeded their pasts, though in predictable, non-fluky fashion. Otherwise, Manny was Manny, Millar was as advertised, Damon was mysteriously off, and for what it's worth Walker and Garciaparra were slipping.

The incredible Red Sox juggernaut of 2003 produced 961 runs in 162 games, an average of 5.93 runs per game. The 2004 team has predictably fallen off to an average of 5.83 runs per game, a full 0.1 runs per game below last year's achievement. No doubt there have been several close games where the Sox really could have used that extra tenth of a run. But no matter; these things tend to even out in the end.

As for the expected individual dropoffs, have they happened??

Bill Mueller: Mueller's average is off by about thirty points, and his OPS is down 100 points. Still, a knee problem hampered him early on, and the healed Mueller rebounded to hit .380 for August. It's been an up-and-down year thanks to the knee, so it's unfair to simply say he's come back to his old mediocre ways. Personally, I love his play and think a team of nine Bill Muellers would win the World Series. His knack for big plays on defense and at the plate are impressive. So the numbers aren't as gaudy; no matter, the guy is an asset.

David Ortiz: Apparently last year wasn't his career year, since he's in the middle of it right now. Has established career highs in homers (33), RBIs (116), and average (.300). But his production is not much different than it's always been; he has simply gotten more at-bats than ever. In my December post I pointed out that the biggest difference in 2003 was that he got ample opportunity to do what he does best -- obliterate right-handed pitching -- while being protected from lefties against whom he struggles. This season Ortiz is only slightly different from who he's always been in that he's improved slightly against lefties, from a .673 OPS (think Alex Cintron) to .737 (more like Joe Randa). The rest of his at bats, he is busy hitting righties like Babe Ruth (1.092 OPS). Basically, he is about one percent improved overall (.973 OPS to last year's .967) with about 40 more at-bats so far to strut his stuff.

Trot Nixon: Season washed out by injury; no point in analyzing.

Jason Varitek: Like Ortiz, the nomination of 2003 as his career year was premature. While his RBIs and homers are slightly off last year's pace and his strikeouts are up, Varitek has improved in just about every other measure. His OPS has jumped from .863 to .915, his average is up nearly 40 points to .310, and he's already matched last year's walk total. In short, he's making better contact and fewer outs, even if it's cost him a little power display. Of all the Sox' contract guys, he's the only one playing like it's his walk year. I also read someplace where his brawl with A-Rod was precipitated by Varitek telling his Majesty, after the latter got plunked, "we don't throw at .260 hitters." Translation: the Sox should give him anything he wants.

Manny: Probably the only Sox regular not accused by anyone of having a career year in 2003, simply because he does the same thing every year: 30-plus homers, some gaudy RBI total, and an average exceeding .300. Not that there aren't some subtle difference in his current MVP-display, but he's about where he always is. Actually, he's showing less patience judging by his present tally of strikeouts and walks, but his OPS is still up from last year to his normal 1.037. When the season ends, his homers and RBIs will be even scarier than now.

Kevin Millar: Horrible start slowed things down for Mr. Cowboy-up, but he's back and better than ever now. As long as you burn his mitt. He's added thirty points to his OPS, mostly on the stength of an increased walk rate.

Johnny Damon: Breaking out like a teenager's forehead after a pizza binge, but then, it's about time. He had this same season about six years ago and has been struggling to get right again.

As for the rest... subtract that selfish Nomar and replace him with Orlando Cabrera. At second, kiss Todd Walker and his overrated bat goodbye and replace him with a stable of hitters, defenders or both, mostly in the form of Mark Bellhorn. That's progress. Cabrera has found the Fens and AL pitching to his liking, following a brief adjustment, and Bellhorn has been the potent bat and on-base machine Walker was supposed to be, albeit with the same iron glove. Offensively, they are status quo at worst, and that's before we look at Cabrera's defense. Hell, even Pokey Reese has gotten on base.

So with the benefit of this hindsight, we can declare that almost nobody in the Sox' regular lineup had a flash-in-the-pan career year in 2003. Only in Mueller's case can you attempt this argument, and as I said earlier given his injuries that wouldn't be fair, especially after his MVP-level August. Rather, what we saw last season were several breakout years that have carried over into 2004. Because of individual talent and the cumulative effect of having solid bats at every position, this Sox team is every bit as potent as the 2003 edition, and it's starting to pay dividends.

Terry Francona

This week the Boston talking heads were contemplating a reevaluation of Francona, in light of the team's sudden and severe jelling into a contender. The details aren't important, and make me somewhat glad I don't live in WEEI's signal range. But the question is, how should we regard Francona? Right now he's a rookie manager of a well-stocked club that is about where it should be, or maybe slightly behind. I'm not nearly as patient or forgiving as he is, having predicted that Mike Myers threw his last pitch in the majors to Amezaga Tuesday. But patience is often a good thing in a manager, and Francona's patience seems to be paying off right now.

My take is, he can't really be judged yet, not til he's been in a postseason. But so far, the results speak well enough.
Preview of Tonight

Just a quick note as I plow through three weeks of communications. Tonight's game should be more fun than the last two, in that the game probably won't be over in the fifth. A few other reasons to watch:

* The Sox have already won the series, so they'll be incredibly loose, while the Angels are desperately watching the post-season get away from them. They'll be gnawing on glass bottles in the dugout if the Sox get up by four runs in the first again.

* Last night Rem-Dawg mentioned on NESN that Colon had turned his season around as of late. The truth is, he was hot in July and spotty in August, coughing up his typical five runs in his last outing. He's their best bet for a quality start in this series, but I wouldn't want Sage's college fund riding on that.

* On that note, the last few weeks have further served notice that it's all about starting pitching. Do the Sox have the best staff in the AL? Only if you focus on the last month; we'll see how long they can keep it up. But they clearly have a better rotation than the Angels, Yankees and Rangers right now, and we only have to finish ahead of two of those three to get in the postseason. Advantage Boston.

* The onion in tonight's ointment could be Guerrero. He just looks like he's about to go extremely deep every time he swings, except when he's down 0-2 and flails inexplicably at a pitch to the backstop. Still, one day he will become the first player in history to homer on a pitch that was behind him. Anyway, Lowe better keep the bases clean when he comes up.

* The Angels scared people in July with their well-rounded game: great D, amazing outfield arms, steady hitting and a killer 'pen. Meanwhile, the Sox were playing beer-league softball. Yet in the final analysis, these teams look a lot alike, with the Sox winning on better offense and starting pitching, about even on D (better infield, worse outfield), and only conceding perhaps on the bullpen. Kudos to Theo and co. for sticking with the blueprint and being patient enough to wait for the pieces to fall into place. And to the Sox for playing Angel-ball.

* Derek Lowe. You just never know... but he's been pretty to watch more often than not lately.

Wednesday, September 01, 2004

Comeback Story

Yep, the big comeback you've been waiting for has finally taken place. This site is about to get hyper-active.

Actually, there's a nice symmetry to the way the calendar has shaken out. I didn't think there was anything to say about a team that went .500 for three months -- when you win one day and lose the next, don't you cancel out most of the points you would have made 24 hours earlier? And anyway those three months dovetailed nicely with cycling events covered exhaustively on my other blog, not to mention personal inconveniences of re-establishing a fixer-upper residence.

But all that is about over, and while the Sox are making baseball fun again, the Patriots are about to get started making insufferable smugness fun again for fans all over New England. In short, there will be plenty to post and discuss.

I'll spend the next few days revisiting some comparisons I made earlier btw the Sox and Yanks, not having gone back yet to see whether I was right as often as not. We'll also try to dispense with the wild card competition, and get back to a more daily format as the Sox go head to head with their prime competition. I might also add a look back at the Nomar trade, although I think that has been nailed up so tight even Dan Shaughnessy has been on point.
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