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Friday, October 29, 2004

Fairy Tales

Are mine the only two eyebrows being raised by Schilling's appearance at Disneyworld? I'm not sure it's as iron-clad of a rule with the WS as it is with the Super Bowl, but usually the MVP gets the invite. Now, if Manny got the invite and turned it down -- which nobody is reporting -- then I apologize. And if not... WTF??

Is Manny not white enough? Is his English too choppy for Dis-National Socialist-World? According to a former Disneyworld employee I knew in school, staff are routinely fired for being anything but perfect 1950s Americans. So it makes sense that their preference would be for Schilling and his bloody sock and military hair style to head up the parade through the Magic Kingdom, an event which is repeated like the pacing of a zoo creature. Manny's mop can't match Schilling's buzz cut.

So, it pisses me off that Manny wasn't invited. Last I checked, Manny was an American, and if Spanish is his native tongue, that fact is neither shameful nor different than probably 20 percent of Disney's daily patrons. On the cuddly scale, Manny ranks only behind Ortiz, and maybe Damon -- definitely ahead of Schilling and his fiery persona. And as for honoring performance... Manny's MVP does sorta seem like a "we had to give it to somebody" choice. My MVP was Foulke, followed by Manny and maybe Varitek, though a more accurate choice would be a three way split with Schilling, Pedro and Lowe. Yet somehow Schilling is the man for Disney. Maybe he's just better at sticking to the script.

Don't get me wrong, I totally love Schilling whenever he's doing something other than talking politics, and especially when he pitches. There can be no doubt that his determination, experience, and big-game reliability pushed the Sox over the top. If Pedro and Lowe were even better than Schilling in the WS, I would argue that their performances were at least partly enabled by Schilling giving us a comfortable lead and a reason for everyone to feel confident. Hell, nobody knows better than Schilling that pitching with a lead is completely different than pitching tied or behind.

But, please, don't turn the bloody sock into a Disney movie starring the Macauley Culkin as Schilling's son and Ed Begley Jr as Sox Dr. Bill Morgan. For the love of god, don't make this victory about one person -- not even Senor Octubre. Don't let Disney destroy history, again.

Update: Apparently Ortiz and Pedro are at the Tragic Kingdom today. So the racist charge is withdrawn. Also, isn't it funny that Schilling is medically cleared to go to Orlando but not to campaign with bush in New Hampshire? Maybe Schilling looked at some poll numbers and decided to get a little more distance.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Better Explanation?

One of the truly beautiful outcomes of this world series will hopefully be the death of the so-called curse. Not as a mystical force but as a story. I've opined many times that the curse is patently stupid... why would Ruth curse us? Did Harry Frazee comment that he was in the twilight of his career on his way out of town? A more plausible argument is that the team, in recent years, was cursed by the fatalistic attitudes of its fan base, and Nixon made a comment which suggests that the doomsayers did wear on the team. But even if you accept such a weak argument, it still only applies to home games.

A more honest assessment of people's feelings, I suspect, would show that the "curse" was shorthand for the sense that the Red Sox had been held back all these years by bad luck. Something always came up to steal the Red Sox' hard-earned victory from their grasp. But even this doesn't quite jibe... true, with a little good luck the Sox could have put away the Mets or Reds or maybe even one of those Cardinal teams. Any time a series goes seven games, they can turn on a little luck. But the truth is, the 2004 Red Sox won the World Series because they were clearly the best team. And it may be the first time in 86 years we can legitimately make that claim.

The baseball playoffs are a little like the Super Bowl in that they tend not to yield too many upsets. Check out the World Series Results and tell me, since 1975, how many upset winners there were. I'd say Florida over Cleveland was a mild upset, but then this was the Marlins team of Sheffield, Nen, Kevin Brown, Charles Johnson, Edgar Renteria, and of course Livan. Florida last year and Arizona three years ago, both beating the Yankees, those couldn't be called significant upsets, not with all those power arms. Cincinnati sweeping Oakland in 1990 was a serious upset, as was LA's 4-1 dusting of the vaunted A's two years earlier (those LaRussa teams sure know how to deal with adversity). But that's about it.

So, my point is, although the Sox could have won any of their four modern-era trips to the World Series, exactly NONE of their defeats could be called upsets. When the Redbirds polished off the Sox in 1946, they were making their fourth trip to the World Series in five years, three of which were successful. In 1967, they were in the process of riding Bob Gibson to two straight pennants. The 1975 Reds are fondly recalled as one of the best teams ever, which would explain why they came back to the series in 1976 and swept Reggie, Goose, Nettles and the Yankees. The 1986 Mets were about as cuddly as the staff of Death Row Records, but they blew away the National League en route to their date with the Sox, with pitching, hitting, speed and depth.

So when the Sox bullpen blew game 6 to the Mets, it was agonizing to watch; worse than Joe Morgan's blooper to win the '75 series, or the slugging exploits of Bucky bleeping Dent and Aaron Boone. But the 1986 Sox couldn't close out the Mets because their only late-inning relievers were Calvin Schiraldi and Bob Stanley... is there anything about these guys that says "winning" to you? Mike Torrez, Tim Wakefield, Jim Burton -- they just weren't good enough! Sure, they could have won it before this year, and maybe there would have been some justice here and there, along the line of rewards for a job well done. But you can't argue that the Sox were the best team on the field in any previous oh-so-close year.

This year, the Red Sox were simply the best team. By a large margin in the World Series. To me, it became clear when Damon hit the grand slam in New York that the Yankees were unworthy, and in the World Series, each first inning rally reinforced the point that the Sox were in total control, something you don't see very often in baseball.

[Preview]

Next up is, why did they win? Why were they the best? Hopefully some numbers will tell the story; if not, we'll just call them the Patriots of baseball.
R E J O I C E ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

This one was for all the members of Red Sox Nation. All the fans who invested any part of themselves in this team over the years. All the players and former players, anyone who didn't quit or walk out on us (Klemens). Guys like Buckner and Torrez who meant well but simply weren't as good as the competition -- if it's for fans like me, who don't contribute any more than a few dollars here and there, it's for the players who gave what they had, even if it left us wanting, or worse. None of that matters anymore.

I'll try to capture the meaning of it all over the next few days, at least when I'm not struggling to make it home before the celebration ends. Could be a close call... it looks like the earliest I can get back is Friday at 4pm. This is going to make for one long, warm, enjoyable offseason.

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Game 4 Warmups

Just in case it happens tonight, I have a bottle of champagne chilling. And I plan to overturn all of Sage's toy vehicles if the Sox win.

Check that -- when the Sox win. Maybe not tonight, maybe not tomorrow, but sometime in the next five days, to be sure. Yeah, I've been getting hassled about not jinxing the team, but I think even in our battered psychological state that certain teams have to be respected and recognized as jinx-proof. Un-jinx-able. Beyond the reach of any mere jinx. Look no further than the 2003 Patriots: does anyone seriously believe that any amount of obnoxious fan behavior could have kept them from their appointed rounds? I believe the Red Sox have finally catapulted into that new level. It's not that they are beyond the fates, per se, but they are beyond feeling any effects from their nervous fandom. It's a matter of confidence and an ability to shut out the emotions we feel, in favor of the incredibly practical, simple, and effective emotional approach these guys bring every day.

So, to clarify, I am not saying they cannot be smitten from the heavens. But I am saying we shouldn't bother worrying about it. Also, if the Cardinals continue carrying themselves the way they did last night, it's going to take a lot of fat Derek Lowe fastballs to wake them up. Not saying it can't happen, but what I saw was one team that cannot be stopped, and another that is out of answers.

In St. Louis's defense, their predicament is far more difficult than what the Sox faced against the Yankees, for one (non-Ortiz-related) reason: they have no idea what they are dealing with. The Red Sox fell behind three games to an opponent they play 75 times a year, at least, and whom the Sox had beaten on regularly this season. The Sox knew they could beat these guys, they had living proof. The Cardinals may know, somewhere in their heart of hearts, that they can beat anyone, but their lack of familiarity with the Sox makes it hard to get the task of digging yourself out of the pit started...

BTW, is tonight the night all the years of anguish come to an end? Can anyone comprehend what this all means? Of course not. In fact, I will send you a check for $100 if you can prove to me that you can comprehend what this will mean. [Checks will not be honored.]

Disarmament

There are two themes that tell the story of this runaway World Series so far. One is the contributions from across the entire Sox lineup, compared to the failures of the Cardinals' middle-order as well as the back end. But we'll get to that later. The other is the vastly different experiences in starting pitching.

I said a few days ago that the Cardinals' starting staff had no scary monsters, just a bunch of guys with mixed stuff and generally good results. Nowhere is there a Mussina-type, who once he gets going is impossible to stop. No Mark Priors, no Johan Santanas, no Tim Hudsons. In years past, the Sox have been ushered out of the postseason by the Wells/Pettitte/Dave Stewart types who knew how to dominate a ball game.

Nobody on the Cardinals' staff (including the bullpen, while we're at it) has that kind of high ceiling, except maybe game 4 starter Jason Marquis, but talent aside Marquis is a completely unproven commodity, for WS purposes. Morris, maybe, but we saw for ourselves how his command comes and goes, like it has for 18 months or so now. I don't want to take this too far, because it quickly becomes a chicken and egg argument (seven or eight Sox hitters deserve some credit for what's happened too). But the Cards need someone to stop the Sox in their tracks to get back in this, and I don't see that guy on their roster. Honestly, with this kind of momentum the only team that can beat the Sox is themselves. Unless Marquis becomes Josh Beckett overnight. Rumor has it the Festina team car was spotted unloading garbage bags in his driveway. Hey, could be worth a shot.

Whereas the Sox have two guys who can do that, and after nearly a year of speculation that the Pedro-Schilling combo would make the Sox a favorite in postseason play, that's exactly what has happened. First Schill, now Pedro, have stopped the Cardinals hitters dead in their tracks. For all the important contributions submitted by these idiots, none match the profound boosts from the last two starting performances. Schilling's is already the stuff of ESPN Classic legends, with Harry Kalas doing slow, grave voiceovers stating that Schilling overcame the amputation of his right leg to make his heroic effort. But Pedro's was by far the most impressive: on the road in a tremendously hostile environment, he not only survived intact but left with a shutout and a wake of 14 consecutive hapless Cardinal hitters. He's not quite Old Pedro, but his performance tonight was completely demoralizing to the opposition. By the fifth inning, you could tell from their body language they were done. Scott Rolen's drop of the bat on the final strike from Foulke tells you exactly where their heads are at. Down in the dumps.

[And, why didn't the Cardinals take more pitches, and try to run up his pitch count? Have they never seen an April game at Yankee Stadium? It's all about pitch counts.

Next up is Derek Lowe, and he damn well better be fit, because it gets murky if the series gets extended. Obviously Wakefield will get a callback for game 5 -- Schilling can't go on short rest, and maybe not at all -- and after that the Sox' rotation looks a bit dicey. Schilling would naturally go Game 6, but if not, call in Bronson Arroyo. Pedro will get game 7, after the emotional outpouring from today, but would have little help besides Lowe. Remember, Lowe killed the Yankees in his last start. If we see this same Derek Lowe, start chilling champagne.
Special Shout Out

To BBTTPL Community Member and Down-East'er Julian Barnes, currently on assignment in, um, Iraq. Julian, you called this one when you said your travels into media silence were a sure sign that the Sox would have a Red October. But I hope you were wrong about watching, and that you've seen every game. At worst, I hope you can hear them on AFRN, where Jon Miller sounds a million times better than the Faux TV morons.

And to fellow community member Dan Barry and his brand-new baby Ethan David Fenway Barry. Not a typo. True Sox fans know how to step up to the plate. I've been too chicken over the years to get so much as a henna tattoo... Congrats Dan, Ethan and Maria!

[For the record, the Sox are 15-11 against the Yankees all time in Sage's lifetime. Oh, and the Patriots are undefeated.]
Here's How it Will Go Down, See...

We not only vanquished the Yankees, we planted a shiv between their shoulderblades. We are on the verge of destroying a proud St. Louis team to whom we owe a few favors, if you think beyond the current generation. And although it's not possible to haul every villain from history onto the field for real-time, physical payback, these Sox are accomplishing the next best thing by chasing off the ghosts of the missing. Tonight, the Sox won largely because of a baserunning error where the third base coach was yelling "go! go! go!" and the runner at third heard "no! no! no!" This is the exact quote, in reverse and with the reverse consequences, from the 1975 World Series, where George Foster threw out Denny Doyle at home when Doyle heard "go!" instead of Zimmer's pleas of "no!" [You know, they've had 29 years to try out "hold!" or "stay!" Why is this so hard?] Anyway, the point is that if we can't beat the Reds too, well, we can chase away some memories of that series. For good measure, someone should foul one in the direction of Joe Morgan during BP tomorrow.

Which leads us to game 4. We all know how this one must end. With a ground ball through Albert Pujols's legs.

Sunday, October 24, 2004

Two... 2... Go

So many storylines, so little time...

* After Game 1, it seemed like most people would prefer hanging Manny out to dry over any other storyline, like how the Red Sox won. Now, mind you, I am a charter member of the International Association of Manny Apologists. I'm willing to overlook a lot of nonsense in exchange for the beauty of a perfect swing. But still, let's put his misery in perspective. On his worst defensive night ever, he had three hits, knocked in two runs, and scored another. So he's still +1 net. Kevin Millar's throwing error absolutely cost us a run -- take his first inning run and call him net 0 for the evening -- but nobody is talking about that. Bronson Arroyo's clownish attempt at Brooks Robinson was only mooted when he proceeded to give up two straight doubles. But nobody's digging his grave. Truth is, Manny is a disaster waiting to happen in left, but it almost never happens, and when it did last night, it was only partially his fault. I'll forgive the turf toss, he makes that play constantly, and I don't care if a normal fielder makes it standing up. Everyone has their own M.O. Overrunning the ball was less forgivable. And what really sucked was the timing: even in the wake of the Yankee demolition Red Sox fans don't need any more reminders of the fleeting nature of their joy. But it was only five Fridays ago that Manny leaped into the stands in Yankee Stadium to snare a home run, in a game the Sox won late. He's not hopeless, he's not a clown, he just had a bad night at the wrong time. Get over it, McCarver.

* If the Cardinals don't pitch any better, this will be a short series. Woody Williams clearly lacked his control, and without it he was D-U-N, quickly. Haren was great, giving up only a predictable first pitch fastball RBI single to Cabrera before taking over the lower half of the strike zone. Fortunately, his lengthy outing should keep him off the field until Tuesday. Ray King was OK, sort of a discount, neckless Alan Embree. If that's their lefty answer to Ortiz, start inscribing the WS MVP trophy now. Tonight the victim was Morris, who made good pitches except with two men on and two outs. Heading into game 7 of the NLCS, I kept thinking we'd have a better chance against the Cardinals' staff than Houston's, and I haven't seen anything to convince me otherwise.

* The choice of Stephen Tyler to sing the national anthem can only mean that they weren't able to thaw out Peter Wolf's body in time.

* Could longtime Cardinals' announcer Joe Buck do a worse job of feigning enthusiasm when the Red Sox make a big play? His monotone description of David Ortiz's first-inning home run Saturday left me confused that the ball was called foul. Ah, Fox. We report, you deride. I need to pipe in ESPN radio, except radio is real time and the dish network is five seconds late. I don't know if I could handle Joe Morgan's analysis without time to prepare.

* At this point only Trot Nixon hasn't hit at all. And I think he's the only one who hasn't. On our side; St. Louis has any number of dormant bats, but another sign of how perfectly things are breaking for the Sox these days: Walker broke out last night; Pujols tonight. If each St. Louis megaslugger has one good night... We have guys hitting in clusters; the Cards haven't had two hot hitters in the same inning yet. Their biggest hit was Walker's solo home run. Their biggest inning was when Wakefield walked the bases full.

* What exactly is Jeff Suppan made of? It's all on him now, to nibble and nitpick the devastating Sox offense to a standstill. It's an incredibly tall task, on the largest stage, with unimaginable pressure on him. But, he will have crowd support... unlike in Boston, devotion of the St. Louis fans does not have to be re-earned each inning.

* Pedro, meanwhile, is scheduled to start Game 7. In other words, barring a reversal of fortune, Game 3 is his last scheduled start in a Sox uniform, until further notice. Not that the series is over, mind you, and with Schilling's right leg replaced by that of a cadaver (have I got that right?), the Sox could try to squeeze Pedro into a game 6. But enjoy Tuesday night, just in case. And, Pedro, pitch as if this game is your last. After all, nobody has ever come back from a 3-0... forget it.

Friday, October 22, 2004

Clean Sweep?

If the Red Sox somehow win the WS, will this mark the first time in history that one city has prevailed over another city for the championship of all four major sports?
Myopia

Final Friday thoughts...

On reflection, we should've seen it coming. As early as game 1. Think about it, the last time the Red Sox saw their playoff hopes dashed when their A-Number-One postseason Ace walked off the mound in the first game of a playoff series with an injury was the 1999 ALDS. Recall that, within hours, the Sox were on the brink of elimination at the hands of mighty Cleveland... only to become the first team in history to come back from an 0-2 hole to win a five game series. The injured pitcher -- Pedro, that time -- provided much of the heroics by sucking it up and returning at a (the?) key moment, pitching brilliantly and killing the Indians' hopes. Kinda eerie.

Of course, hopefully that's where history stops being a guide. That team didn't do much for an encore. Then again, that team immediately went on the road to face a superior, well-rested opponent. Not quite so this time.
Scouting the Cardinal Rotation

* Woody Williams: survives with a cut fastball that apparently is significantly tougher on lefties than righties, despite being right-handed. Righties hit .288 (.808 OPS) against him, while lefties only got him to the tune of .236 (.665 OPS). So while the temptation is to load up on lefties like Nixon, the Sox might be well advised to start Millar in right and Ortiz at first, with Varitek the DH. Varitek is much more dangerous from the right side. Williams is a classic gamer with middlin stuff. He could shut you down if he gets hot, but he won’t blow you away with stuff.

* Matt Morris: The Derek Lowe of the Midwest. Well, not exactly, his stuff is more power than movement, but he’s had about 18 months of curious struggles, considering his tremendous makeup. Apparently it’s all about mechanics. He’s got two fastballs (one straight, one sinking), a tough change, and a power curve. But he rang up a 4.72 ERA in the National League and is over 5.00 for the postseason, with a great defense behind him and a large stadium. So apparently his struggles continue. Hopefully he won’t rediscover his old self in the next week; if he does, it changes a lot.

* Jason Marquis: More like Morris, a great talent with great stuff but who has struggled to succeed. His 3.71 ERA in the regular season was certainly respectable, but it’s ballooned to 7.36 in the postseason. He’s a hard-throwing righty with a power curve that he apparently never throws for strikes. So if the Sox don’t strike themselves out on curves, apparently he won’t get them out that way either. Little in the way of lefty-righty splits; marginally better on the road – which is good for a potential game 7 starter. Sox should sit on the fastball, but at 94-96 MPH, that’s not an easy task.

* Jeff Suppan: Stop snickering. This isn’t the Suppan we cast aside last season, after dealing our best minor league infielder for him. He’s been money in the postseason so far. Basically a nibbler who throws lots of breaking pitches and changeups. The scouting report says he tires early, so the Pedro treatment (run up the pitch count) would be a good strategy here. And the Sox are the second-most patient team in baseball.
Gearing Up

Hard to know where to begin...

* Let's start with an easy one: Mirabelli has to start game 1. Varitek is great, and if he is so indispensable make him the DH and put Ortiz at first. But if you watched game 6 -- and I know you did -- you saw that Varitek cannot catch Wakefield. Actually, he can catch him to his backhand, but every inside pitch to a righty is going to be an adventure. Every walk has the potential to be a triple. Meanwhile, Mirabelli isn't that great a dropoff at the plate, and at this point has to be one of the world's foremost experts in catching knucklers. This is a 25 man team, and if you sit Mirabelli here, you're basically telling him he's nothing more than a bullpen catcher. That's not our style.

Update: The Globe casually mentions in the Sox notebook that Mirabelli is the starter for game 1.

* Francona's rotation was same as mine except he flipped Pedro and Schilling. Sorta six of one/half dozen of the other, but for one, Pedro should be fresher (you can ignore his one forgettable inning); for two, Pedro's ankle doesn't need any healing time; third, isn't Schilling a better road pitcher and Pedro the man at home?; and finally, my suggestion brings on Schill in Game 7, not 6, although pitching Pedro in Game 7 has its own delicious drama. The numbers:

Schilling
Home: 3.45 ERA, 127 IP, 116 hits, 15 homers, .667 OPS against
Away: 3.00 ERA, 99 IP, 90 hits, 8 homers, .644 OPS against

Pedro
Home: 3.22 ERA, 111 IP, 89 hits, 12 homers, .641 OPS against
Road: 4.41 ERA, 105 IP, 104 hits, 14 homers, .700 OPS against

Schilling is a fly ball pitcher, making him a natural fit for Busch Stadium (do they still call it that?), and not so much for Fenway -- as the homers demonstrate. Pedro's style doesn't fit or not fit any particular place. Schilling is ice cold, and can stare down the most hostile crowds -- and they're LOUD in St. Louis. Pedro is an emotional guy who feeds off the positives at home and, IMHO, lets road crowds get to him a bit.

But the numbers aren't dramatically different, and either guy can succeed in either place. Pedro's road numbers are skewed by two bad games, in Anaheim and in Tampa; otherwise he was just fine.

Update: I'm an idiot. Apparently the games in St. Louis are played under something called national league rules, where pitchers are required to hit, run bases, and sweep the infield between innings. Apparently a man in Schilling's condition, cadaverous ankle and all, should be shielded from such duties. [Do the comparisons between Schilling and one John Brabazon ever end?] [Sorry, insider humor. It's over now.]

* I arrive in Boston Saturday morning, Oct. 30, around 10am. Hopefully with my new Manny jersey (you can't find an Ortiz jersey for under $150 right now).

Thursday, October 21, 2004






[This moment of silence is in remembrance of all we went through to be here today. Thank you.]
Us

There are so many story lines to explore, I hardly know how to contain myself. And I thought buying a new bike was exciting....

* Four days ago I wrote in my head an article for this site handing out postseason grades, mostly ranging from C- to F-, sparing only Pedro, Schilling, Foulke and Varitek. That article sat, awaiting the final indignity (and some work travel), and now must be converted to an honor roll. The Turnaround will be the subject of video, articles, blogs, and doctoral dissertations for years to come. But I think it's indicative of the funny streakiness in the Sox' pitching staff. Seriously,for three games, other than Pedro clinging to life in game 2, every other Sox pitcher was horrible, and only Schilling could blame factors beyond his control. Wakefield was bumbling, Arroyo was an embarassment, Leskanic was toxic, Timlin, Embree, Myers... one meatball after another. Unlike last year's ALCS (and ALDS), where the games weren't decided until someone finally made a bad pitch, here the Red Sox were just serving it up. Matsui had 10 hits in three games, but he was playing tee-ball. How hard was that? Reminded me of the turn through the rotation around the All-Star Game, and a few other intervals between the glorious months of April and August.

And, just as everyone slumped at once, everyone got it back at once. Since games 4 and 5 lasted a combined 735 innings, we got to see hard evidence as to how each Sox pitcher managed to rebound. Leskanic looked nasty; Myers' strikeout of Matsui in game 5 was comical; Timlin returned to his metronomic self; Schilling got himself unhurt (you know somebody is taking a few secrets to the grave on this one); and Derek Lowe should have his number retired in right field for his performance in game 7. I think confidence is contagious. It was mid-August out there again.

The message is, all these guys can pitch, and can feed off each other, particularly where each pitcher seems to offer one unusual look after another. Knucklers, fastballs, changeups, sinkerballers, forkballers, even a lefty sidearmer. It's fair to say none of them are sure bets on any given day. And, when they all get going, it's dizzying.

* As for the Yankees, it's funny but I think scoring 19 runs was a disaster for them. Seems like, in sports, you don't want your highs too high or your lows too low. When teams go on offensive feeding frenzies, it seems like more often than not they all start swinging for the fences, and presto! You've got a team-wide hitting slump.

* Amyway, the mini-honor roll (it's late here):
- Senor Octubre, a man who needs no intro.
- Derek Lowe, for setting our expectations so low he couldn't possibly be afraid of failure anymore -- and kicked ass as a result. (Since I heard the game driving home from Portland, I can report that the ESPN radio guys were convinced that sinker pitchers have more movement on their pitches when their arm is tired. They said this before the first pitch. Overthrowing is a good way to defeat your pitch action, or so they say.
- Terry Francona, for juggling the pitching staff expertly. Hey, I was pissed both times he took out Lowe, but it worked in the end, and now Lowe is confident and not overworked. Let's face it, Francona can't get the blame when his players don't execute. He's got 25 guys who he believes (rightly) can do their jobs. These aren't the D-Rays. So when they fall on their faces, or pop up a bunt, or get caught stealing, it's rare where you can say, he should have KNOWN that would happen.
- Leskanic, Myers, Arroyo, Wakefield: who didn't think it was over when these guys came in in games 4&5? But just as Francona showed confidence in them, they pitched confidently, and the turnaround began.

* I will buy my plane ticket to Boston tomorrow. Arriving the morning of Game 6. Worst case scenario is I get there in time for the victory parade. Or that I pocket the ticket til next year. I don't expect to get in Fenway, but if anyone knows of an unguarded entrance...?

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Them

This site will pore over every detail I can think of regarding the Sox in the next several days, so before we get away let's look at what we left behind in New York. I said before to beat a champion you have to tear out their heart, and that's exactly what transpired. The Red Sox didn't merely eek out a tough win; they left the Yankees humiliated. No less than His Holiness Peter Gammons called it the biggest collapse in sports history. The Sports Guy points out that for the next god-knows-how-long, every time a team gets down 3-0 the media will show highlights of Ruben Sierra grounding out or Damon's towering home run, or hopefully A-Rod's bullshit play. We beat them on the field squarely enough, and robbed them of their immense dignity in the process.

Moreover, the Sox took down virtually every Yankee in the process. No less than Mariano Rivera, the greatest reliever ever, saw his last two save chances go down in flames to a team that simply wasn't afraid of him anymore. The heart of the Yankee order, the modern murderer's row, did virtually nothing after A-Rod's early homer in game 4. Bernie Williams hit one solo homer off Schilling, and registered an RBI off Pedro out of habit in game 7, neither to any avail. A-Rod not only got no more hits of consequence, he actually managed to singlehandedly turn karma against the Yankees, ending their 83 year run of luck. Sheffield was reduced to overswinging or watching breaking balls. Matsui went silent until the Yankees' fate was sealed. Posada's shining moment was a loud out off Schilling on a fly ball that circled the upper deck before being blown back into play to Nixon. Otherwise, the only things I remember were some good throws and a nasty foul ball. Sierra stopped getting fastballs to sit on, proving he's a one-trick pony.

And then there's the pitching. Mussina acquitted himself, and Lieber was good if outpitched. Ditto I guess for Loaiza. The remainder of the staff should fear for its safety in the Bronx. Jeezus, Gordon gave up a run an inning, Brown was a nuclear accident, Vazquez looked good between devastating hits allowed, nobody anywhere feared Sturtze or Quantrill, the Terence and Philip of major league bullpens. El Duque was an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Seriously, the Yankees will have at least seven openings on its pitching roster this offseason. Lookout market.

But the real blame lies not with Giambi and Brown, as Gammons said, but with Steinbrenner. The changeover from the championship teams from years gone by is marked by the replacement of good working parts with temperamental, expensive parts. Sure, these guys contribute the numbers, but the Yankees of old won on intangibles as much as anything else. Hell, they may yet win again next year: Jeter, Mariano, Posada and Williams are all still solid, and it's no coincidence that the class of this team is its middle-of-the-field core. Great teams are built on heart and up the middle. This year's humiliation may just spur them on harder next year.

Still, it's also no coincidence, is it, that Alex Rodriguez is the guy who spoiled the karma. That the Yankees began losing when they got rid of/lost Tino, Brosius, and Paul O'Neil and replaced them with pricey guys like Giambi, A-Rod and Sheff (hello children). And that they lost their way as a unit when Steinbrenner began overruling Cashman and Torre on personnel. The Red Sox' signings haven't been as splashy for the most part (save Schilling) but they have contained an element of unit-building, as the Sox have looked for character guys who can fill needs. Only Matsui among the expensive imports looks like a 1996 Yankee. Was Kevin Brown a character signing? Please. Hey, maybe I'm going too far, it's just baseball and sometimes teams win four straight, out of coincidence. But hey, don't take my word for it, check out the New York Times (subscription required). After all, these are Derek Jeter's Yankees...and yet they just blew a 3-0 lead. I hope Steinbrenner does just stick his head in the sand.

Finally, what does this victory remind you of? I can think of two moments in our lifetime that compare: When the Patriots beat the Dolphins in the 1986 AFC Championship in Miami, and when the Reggie Lemelin-led Bruins finally beat Montreal in the playoffs. Both were blowouts: The Bruins won handily in 5 games, and though I can't remember the Pats' score, I recall it was hardly ever in doubt, even before Mark Duper went insane and threw his helmet. Like I said, you don't edge out a champion. You demolish them, or you don't win at all.
The Next Step

My hunch is Wakefield in Game 1. If it's Houston, it's possible that park is one of those semi-indoor places where his ball doesn't knuckle, but that's just a hunch, nobody really knows. So start Wake in Fenway. Pedro's appearance seems to suggest that he's being pushed off a day, unless his one inning was meant to count as a bullpen session. We know it can't be Schilling or Lowe, and at this point Arroyo may be the odd man out, though not of merit. I'm just not sure you can justify sitting anyone else. Or using a 5-man rotation, with two days off.

Francona will fill us all in soon enough. But what do you think it should be? For my money, it's 1. Wake, 2. Pedro, 3. Schill, 4. Lowe. Everyone gets a little more rest, and you get Schill on the road, AND set up for game 7. Lowe can come out of the bullpen in game 1 or 2, 6 or 7. Arroyo is the default starter if Wakefield or Pedro come out shaky.

Wednesday, October 13, 2004

Pop Quiz

Name one Red Sox player who has stepped it up in the last 48 hours. Just one.

Tuesday, October 12, 2004

What it takes

Yeah, we want the Sox to beat the Yankees, but what we're really saying is not that we want a victory so much as we want to dethrone them. And it is precisely this dynamic that results in the Sports Guy giving the Sox an 80% chance of having the better team but the Yanks a 90% chance of winning the series.

To dethrone a true champion is hard to do and even harder to predict.

You could easily enough predict the demise of numerous one-hit wonders. The Marlins were still a young team prone to key arm injuries and free-agent losses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had Brad Johnson at quarterback... surely there was some way to beat them. In the end, all it took was a whisper campaign that Gruden disrespected Keyshawn, and the entire franchise ground to a halt. The Anaheim Angels made up for a shaky rotation with great relief work in 2002, but Ben Weber was a career journeyman, Troy Percival was showing his age, and relievers can only pitch so many innings before blowing out; somewhere a starting staff would have to emerge. And if you thought Aaron Sele was the answer... you get my drift.

But the Yankees are a different breed entirely. They have won 8 straight division titles, won three straight world series, four straight pennants, and six of eight. More to the point, they carry themselves like the team that's done all this, and that mental toughness is a large part of their success in both the regular season and playoffs.

To beat them, then, you have to drive a stake through their chests. The only time in the past several postseasons when they looked beaten before it was over was game 6 of last year's WS, when they seemed too tired to mount a challenge. Since then, a supposedly creaky, ill-conceived team went on to lead the AL in wins, beating back any serious challenges by the Sox with an air of authority. They rise up in late innings when you think you have them down. They make the big defensive stops when they need to. They have Mariano whenever they get an edge on you. It's telling that they seem to lose game 1 of every series in the postseason: it's like they know they don't need it.

Objectively speaking, the Sox and Yanks are headed in different trajectories. The Sox have done a spectacular job of simultaneously shoring up holes and replacing exhausted options for the entire Epstein Era. Last year they patched together a great offense and enough pitching to make the playoffs. This year they qualified emphatically, turning over a handful of spots on offense, the rotation, and most of all the bullpen, and upping the ante to 98 wins. They have a postseason ace, or maybe two, and a real closer; they lost precious little offense from last year's juggernaut; and they wove a brilliant defensive unit from a ragtag group, with two midseason trades. Even the farm system is back from the dead, so that if the 2004 Free Agent Class all disappear, the Sox can use a mixture of signings and kids to keep the momentum going for the rest of the decade.

The Yankees, meanwhile, appear at the end of their run. They have extended it by peddling off every decent prospect in sight, and by replacing various moving parts with flashier, more expensive parts... mostly to disastrous results. Did Jason Giambi really contribute more than what could be expected from two more seasons of Tino? He put up better numbers, but what did it really matter? The same argument could be made of klemens, albeit more tenuously... He acquitted himself in his last two seasons in pinstripes, but his only ring was in 2000, when he leeched his way onto the Yankee express. Guys like Mussina, Contreras, Matsui, etc. are a mixed bag; Sheff (hello children) and A-Rod have yet to make their postseason statements.

But until Steinbrenner goes insane and replaces Jeter, Mariano, Williams, Posada and Torre with flashier, more expensive parts, these guys are standing in between any challenger and the title. It's a psychological wall at this point, and it's not about the Babe or the Summer of '49 or Bucky Dent. It's not even about last October. It's not about us at all. It's about the Yankees' own relationship to history, and their unwillingness to share their success with anyone.

Monday, October 11, 2004

Neck and Neck

So now it comes down to this. The Challenger and the Incumbent. To a distant outsider or a neutral observer (such people exist?) they seem so alike, down to their breeding, but in ways clear to their supporters they are very, very different. The latest numbers say they're running about even, but you knew that. Sure, there have been ebbs and flows, the challenger peaking in August only to see the incumbent reassert itself as summer came to an end. They've been gunning for each other since the snow melted, waiting for the stretch run through October to the final decision. They've been exchanging increasingly heated, personal blows, particularly in recent face-to-face confrontations. And it's all led to this: The ... presidential election? Screw that, this is the ALCS.

I hate to cop out, but let's face it, this series has been written about almost as exhaustively as comparisons between the two teams. So it's hard work ... hard work... did I say this is hard work? to come up with original material. Let me finish here. OK, I can think of a few story lines:

Do you need some wood? The following Sox hitters kicked ass over Anaheim (warning: all statistics are relative to the quality of pitching):
Damon -- .467 avg, .500 OB%; 7 hits & 3 steals led team
Ramirez -- 7 RBIs, 2 2Bs, HR, .385
Ortiz -- .545 avg., you know the rest
Millar -- .300, HR, 4 RBI
Mueller -- .333 avg

And the rest? Nixon hit .250 with 2 RBIs, Varitek and Cabrera hit under .200, but both were game 2 heroes with a combined 5 RBI. Only Bellhorn among regulars had a bad series: his 1-for-11 is ugly, but add in five walks and you've still got an on base avg of .375, just what the doctor ordered from the two hole with Ramirez and Ortiz waiting their turn. Nine different players scored runs, while 7 knocked in at least one.

Meanwhile, only Matsui, Jeter, A-Rod and Williams hit over .250 for the Yanks, but that's more the Santana effect. In the end, eight different players knocked in runs. Don't cry for them.

My opponent voted against arming the troops Want pitching numbers? More of the same: Sox looked better, but not by any meaningful length. All three Boston starters hung around into the seventh inning giving up three runs or less. 100 percent quality starts. But the Yankees' only blemish came from the fickle hand of Javier Vazquez, whose five runs in five innings tally left him in danger of losing his spot to El Duque, who was hitting 65 on the radar gun in his last outing. Only Mussina lost, 2-0 to Santana, while Brown and Lieber were solid. Head to head? These numbers would predict three low scoring, tight games, followed by utter mystery in the Wakefield versus whomever game 4.

Bullpens? Gordon, Sturtze and Heredia all took their lumps from the Twins. Rivera was Rivera. On our side, Timlin gave up the unspeakable Friday; everyone else was fine. Not the three-headed juggernaut of 2003, but at least we have a real closer this time.

Fool me once, you don't get fooled again Mike Timlin looked dominant in game 2, then gave up the hit which cannot be spoken in game 3. Feeling concerned? Timlin pitched 76 games this year, nearly half of the team's slate. On only two occasions did he give up an earned run in consecutive games. (Warning: statistics can be misleading. Those two occasions were both in August. Good thing they got five days to rest.)

October Surprise Nothing can be cited that will tell you the eventual outcome. In the Anaheim series, the Sox clearly had the better rotation and more than enough offense, such that nobody should be surprised by three wins, two in blowouts. With the Yanks, whatever marginal advantage Santana gave the Twins was overwhelmed by the Yankees' rather predictably huge edge on offense. In this series, I defy anyone to point to an objectively verifiable, significant edge enjoyed by any team. [In other words, save your "intangibles".] Yeah, I didn't think so.

No, this series will be decided by events as they unfold. Will Brown's back have trouble loosening, taking away his effectiveness? Will Mariano be too distracted by the sadness of losing relatives? Will Pedro's Caribbean blood flow freely enough to rediscover his command on a cool evening in New York? Can David Ortiz really be this good? Can anyone get the Yankees out in the 8th inning???

That's why they play the games.

Friday, October 08, 2004

Just Shut Up

Don't say a word, don't do anything that could interrupt the delicious status quo...

A few storylines:

* Based on the opening phase of round 1, are the Sox the best, or at least the hottest, team in the playoffs? Only St. Louis looks comparable -- exact same w-l, runs scored/allowed... but the Cardinals had the luxury of playing at home, along with the added luxury of playing the Dodgers, a team that runs out Odalis Perez and Jeff Weaver to start off a playoff series. The negative side of me says part of what's going on is, the team that expends the most energy qualifying for the playoffs is usually the first to leave. Kind of a truism, but in the Angels' case, when it means your only fresh starter is Jarrod Washburn, you're in trouble. They didn't have the ability to line up their best pitchers to defend their home turf, and got ambushed. On the other hand, I have NEVER liked the Angels' rotation under the best of circumstances. Only John Lackey makes me worry, and only if he survives the first couple innings without getting shelled. The fact that they beat Oakland shows just how far the A's staff has fallen off. I guess throwing 1000 innings by your 26th birthday may not be such a good thing afterall.

* In the postseason, every sentient being knows that pitching reigns supreme. And with that, the vaunted Angels' bullpen is now sporting an ERA that caught and passed bush's approval rating in the ninth inning Wednesday. So, for the record, the truism is as follows: really good pitching usually beats all hitting. But really good hitting is perfectly capable of winning games in all other cases, and since the Angel pitching has been middlin at best, it's no surprise the greatest offensive nonmilitary force in the history of mankind has flourished. Ahem. Also, though the Sox' pitching has been fab, the bats won game 1 almost singlehandedly, and did more than their share of winning game 2 as well.

* This raises an underappreciated aspect of pitching: the constant interplay between pitching and offensive support. Curt Schilling has won 22 games so far this year, and the worst support he received in any win was four runs. In a couple of his losses the Sox left him out to dry... but for the most part, this guy has been pitching downhill all year. He deserves credit, but most guys (and especially guys like Schilling) can win every night when they get a comfy lead and simply have to throw strikes and not worry too much. Pedro, by contrast, always seems to be hanging on to a tie or slim lead. He is under far more pressure to, say, not walk a leadoff hitter ever, and the results speak for themselves. You simply cannot approach pitching in a tie game the way you can when you have a five run lead. Schilling is a walking five run lead. Pedro is constantly fighting for scraps. Bottom line, there can only be one conclusion: the Red Sox offense is racist.

* Actually, there is one other explanation: the squeaky wheel gets greased. If you've ever seen Schilling for five seconds on a day he is pitching, it is instantly clear that this guy is no fun to be around when they lose. I'm sure the Sox hitters are desperate to get Schilling some runs so they don't have to suffer his rants and raves. Pedro is more laid back. Que sera sera.

* Final note on the Sox' offense: two big innings in two days is a really great omen. Big innings mean the whole offense is clicking. When Gabe Kapler get a key hit to touch off a seven-run frame; when Doug Mientkiewicz is one of seven guys to have RBIs; when your big bopper(s) are both hitting extremely well; when your slumping catcher demonstrates he is clearly out of his slump... lots of good signs. BTW, note to MAC users, if you know how to operate the macro for "mientkiewicz", I'd appreciate some tips.

* If and when the Sox polish off the Angels, we can discuss who we want to face next. No sooner. Of course, I mostly just want the worst team possible to advance, but that's usually not how it works. Still, it will be very interesting to see what if anything Kevin Brown has up his sleeve these days.

Monday, October 04, 2004

What's Gonna Happen

The answer, of course, is that I won't know until it happens, and neither will you. Nor will a few dozen baseball writers who get paid to act otherwise. But that doesn't mean there isn't anything to discuss.

* The difference this year is Curt Schilling, says the conventional wisdom. Ah, but the more things change... See, Schilling gives Boston a bona-fide postseason Ace who will give you an extremely competitive start each time out. Or so we hope. But even if Schilling is true to form -- and he is incredibly reliable, and BTW we really don't want to think about what if he isn't -- the Red Sox' chances still rest very heavily on Pedro Martinez.

It's the nature of the Wild Card. The Sox must play the first two games on the road of each series (in AL play). To win 3/5 or 4/7, they really need to capture at least one of the first two to have control of their fate. Schilling as the Ace is a great place to start, but other teams have aces too (Colon, Mussina, Santana) who can tame Sox' bats. So, as good as Schilling is, remember he left game 7 of the 2001 WS down 2-1 because his teammates couldn't hit until Mariano got in the game. Ah, but game two... nobody else has a Pedro. If he is his old self, he wins every game 2, and a game 6 when necessary as well. He has been anything but his old self of late... and a mediocre Pedro already got the daddy treatment in Angels Stadium this year. So you see, which Pedro shows up is the question of the moment.

* Each year the WS MVP seems to come out of nowhere, so trend lines can't tell you the whole story... but they can tell part of it. And here's a few:

- Anaheim's two best players had Septembers to remember. Vladi Guerrero was an absolute monster with 25 RBIs, while Garrett Anderson had far less intriguing numbers... and 24 RBIs. But Adam Kennedy got hurt and Jose Guillen was transported to Van Diemen's Land. Their other top hitter was Chone Figgins, hitting .300 for the month. Eckstein, Erstad and Glaus were all comfortably below the Mendoza Line (officially .212).

- Escobar (3.52), Colon (3.65) and Lackey (2.82) were all tough down the stretch. Game 1 starter Jarrod Washburn won only one game, but his 4.14 ERA for the month is hardly Lowe-esque.

- On the other side of the ledger, Schilling (4-0, 2.61) and Arroyo (3-0, 3.85) were just fine. And almost everyone else sucked. Pedro (4.95), Wakefield (7.24), Lowe (6.39)... ouch.

- Half the lineup was at or above .300: Cabrera, Ortiz, Millar, Nixon and Damon. The first five hitters in the usual batting order all had between 19 (Millar, Bellhorn) and 29 (Damon) RBIs. Varitek slumped for half the month, but appeared to be emerging in the last week.

* So what can you tell about trend lines? Well, there are some certainties. Trot Nixon will be a factor, at least if he gets to hit off righties. And Derek Lowe will win fewer games than Mike Myers. Other than that, you can only wonder -- will we see post-season hero Pedro circa 1999, or the guy who got cuffed by Tampa last week? Many Angels are battle-tested, but is Vladi ready for his first meaningful October game?

* Head to head: it wasn't pretty for the Sox, when they gave up 17 homers and 56 RBIs to Guerrero in a single game in June, amidst a two game sweep by the host Angels. And David Ortiz' freakout at the umpire capped another ignominious game in Disneyland... until the Sox came back to win, behind a sharp Pedro. The Sox won a hard four-game split in their second visit west, in July. Then they crushed the Angels like lethargic mosquitoes collecting on their windshield in three big games at Fenway in September. Anaheim is a tough place for visiting teams, but I think Fenway might be tougher.

* One final note: as long as we don't have to start off in the Metrodome, where sensible baseball games go to die, we should manage OK.
Pundit Class

ESPN.Com lines up its 16 "experts" (the list tails off at the end with predictions from the mailroom) and the hot pick is none other than -- Sweet Caroline! It's Your Boston Red Sox! Six of 15 pick them to go all the way, more choices than the Cardinals (four), Angels (three), Yankees (two) or 'Stros (one). Two others have the Sox losing in the WS, meaning exactly half of the staff picks the Sox to win the pennant. Perhaps more importantly, the six who picked Boston include Gammons, Neyer, Stark and Kurkjian, the meat of the ESPN.com/MLB lineup.

Meanwhile, SI has the Sox in five over the Angels. If you can find anything bold enough to look like a prediction at USATODAY, I'd like to see it.
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