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Sunday, January 30, 2005

Leftover Tuna

An ESPN-roster wag ran a column arguing that Tom Brady doesn't compare to Joe Montana at this point, because he's only 27 and hasn't carried the water as long, or something like that. Fine by me, Brady may be my favorite QB ever, but I don't feel the need to lionize him as if it were all about Tom. And I am quite sure he would agree. But the columnist, Skip Bayless, steps over the line in making a roughly analogous argument that Belichick can't hold a candle to Parcells.

First of all, barring an upset next week, Belichick should get his third SB win (opleaseopleaseoplease) (n.b. Philly CAN win this! All I am saying is they aren't being picked to do so). If this happens, that's three for Belichick, two for Parcells, and as the Tuna says, you are what your record says you are. Win or lose, Belichick has kept his team at a championship level for three of four years. In other words, he has defended against the challengers. Parcells? His Giants team, sporting one of the greatest defenses ever and a pretty deadly offense to boot, didn't even get back to the Super Bowl for four years after their glorious 1987 win. He couldn't win with Lawrence Taylor? How hard could that have been?

Some other comparisons: 21 straight wins? Don't see that on the Tuna's resume. An eight-game postseason winning streak? Nope. Successful management of a salary cap? Not bloody likely.

In my mind, there is no comparison. Parcells is a master motivator. As far as I can tell, the hallmarks of his teams are that they are serious and physical. He also likes to take risks in the game-calling, an aggressive posture that ensures games are played on his team's terms. I seem to remember in 1996 a Bledsoe bomb to Curtis Martin in the divisional playoff opener that shocked the Steelers and got the Patriots on track on their run through the AFC. Good stuff. He won in New York (G-men) with the right players, and got close with the Pats and Jets with good, if slightly overmatched, talent. The Pats were slightly less a team than the Packers, and the Jets couldn't derail Elway and Terrell Davis. Forgiveable sins.

But Belichick's teams are all that and more. They are motivated, not by screaming and intimidation but by a more durable source: pride in themselves. They hit hard, but they also hit smart, i.e., they finish their tackles. They are creative on offense, but they are smart about that too -- they don't kill themselves with turnovers. In all facets of the game, the team is incredibly well prepared. Parcells' teams are prepared, but not like this. Belichick's operation of the organization, management of the cap, all that goes beyond what Parcells has done. I know it's hard to remember, but Parcells is still coaching in 2005. So we can match their accomplishments from the same era.

Second to last, Belichick has never made himself the center of attention the way Parcells seems to. Parcells seems to have an almost Pedro-like quality to him in this manner. Does it matter? Well, did it matter that in the run-up to the 1997 Super Bowl, all anyone talked about was whether Parcells was leaving the Patriots? Uh, yeah, I think it did. It sucked for the team. Belichick would never do that.

Finally, the most important way in which Belichick surpasses Parcells is that while Parcells has built teams in the old-fashioned way, Belichick has changed football. Parcells' teams have stars, they employ big name guys to do what they do best, etc. Unlike the Pats of today, you could name the stars and count the pro bowlers on a good Parcells team. No harm in that, right? Except that those traditionally structured teams cannot compete over time with the Belichick model, made of relatively anonymous players, many of whom are 'tweeners in the eyes of talent scouts -- the McGinests and Seymours -- who seem to fit a few different positions. The roster is flexible, the players -- all 53 or so -- are interchangeable depending on formations and who they're playing and and who's not hurt. The whole idea of building a team this way is revolutionary, and Belichick is showing the world that it not only works, it kicks ass. Yes, there are a few stars, like Brady and Dillon, and increasingly Tedy Bruschi, but the way the team lost Law, discarded Milloy, lost Seymour, lost Woody, and just kept on marching on suggests that even the stars can be replaced. All but Brady and Dillon, in my opinion. And provided the replacement is another dedicated, serious, prepared, selfless individual, whether anybody's heard of him or not.

The Belichick system is in-freaking-credible, and Parcells' accomplishments, his style as a coach, looks like some mindless screaming and posing by comparison. Who would you want in the big game? Who would you want starting a team from scratch? IMHO, at any point in a franchise's trajectory, I would take Belichick over Parcells, hands down.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

Undefeated

So Tom Brady is 8-0 in playoff games? That's great, but why doesn't anyone dig a little deeper here? If they did, they might discover that David Patten and Kevin Faulk are also 8-0. Matt Light too? Or that Richard Seymour is 6-0, while a flotilla of bodies are 5-0 (Pass, Branch, Givens, B. Johnson, Samuel, Warren, Wilson...). Harrison is something like 8-1, Vrabel maybe 11-2? Phifer perhaps the same, depending on what he did with the Jets. And Ted Johnson, Tedy Bruschi, Troy Brown, Willie McGinest, Adam Vinatieri (and Ty Law if he were healthy), they are all playing in their fourth Super Bowl. The all-time record for any player is six super bowls. Anyway, Brady deserves the extra credit and attention, but some of these other guys have pretty magical track records too.

My only thought on the whole TO business is, the doctor is being unfairly scapegoated for not clearing him to play. This may sound self-serving, but we licensed professionals don't have the luxury of telling people what they want to hear. The way the system works is that people want to be able to rely on expert opinions, so we license certain professions to make sure that when they tell you something, you can rely on it. To the professional, that means you better call it like you see it, or you can expect to be on a witness stand fighting to hang on to your retirement fund.

But you knew all that already; here's another thought to consider: where do Owens and the Iggles get off trying to use the doctor as cover for a patently risky scheme? If they want to send an injured guy into an NFL game for their own reckless, selfish purposes, then Reid and Owens and the team brass should take the fall when his ankle blows up. Asking for a medical clearance means they want to hide behind a doctor. The doctor would have to be an idiot to go along with this.

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Pace Ourselves

PORTLAND, Ore.-- Yes, that's right, blogging from the road. I not only pulled myself away from a great book on Stalin, I even resisted the temptation to start my forthcoming Stalin blog -- which would be the world's first. And all to bring you this...

* The early Terrell Owens distraction is playing out nicely so far for the Patriots... but let's face it, they are generally the center of attention, and the word "dynasty" is mentioned more frequently on AM radio than "privatization." I've been monitoring the AM airwaves during some long drives lately on work trips, and the great unwashed, well, they still don't exactly know what to make of the Patriots, but they're terrified to go against them.

* Carping in Pgh about how maybe Cowher should be castrated and strung up. I personally like him where he is, since his legendary jaw thrust is generally counted on to lead the Steelers to greatness, to the neglect of any serious game planning. Fine by me. But I've had some second thoughts about the Decision to Kick from the three. It was a mistake, in the sense that it killed the rest of the game. I had stated Sunday that it was the right call at the time, but only as a tradeoff for the fact that there was no way they were gonna punch that one in. Sound logic, if the play takes place in a vacuum. But it doesn't, it takes place with plenty of time left on the clock and Cowher's team in position to threaten the Pats. Yeah, if they run they would get stuffed, but the Pats would be pinned back, and Cowher wouldn't have just dissed his team. On second thought, that would probably have helped them more than three measly points.

* ESPN is about to run a story about how the Patriots will never be the same after the game, which I take to be a reference to the departures of Weis and Crennel. Without the benefit of some locker room time, I would still guess that the DC and OC deserve more than their share of the credit, and Weis will be especially tough to replace since Belichick doesn't seem to do Os, just Xs. But Crennel? However fine a DC and HC he may be, there was an anecdote in yesterday's Globe that puts some fears to rest. Prior to the 4th down play where the Steelers gave the ball to Bettis, who then got stuffed at the Pats' 40 and fumbled for good measure, Belichick called time and hailed Johnson, and according to the LB told him something about the forthcoming play that apparently made the whole difference. Speaking in hushed tones, Johnson said Belichick saw something, told him about it, and basically blew up the play from the sidelines before it happened. So I think the Pats will be OK as long as the HC stays.

* Lots of puffery in Pgh about Deion Branch celebrating his last TD Sunday. A buddy of mine with long Steel City ties was miffed that the Pats were laying it on the Steelers at that point, rather than taking a knee. Personally I had no problem with any of it; I don't think the game was 100% done, and the Steelers do too much talking to complain when their conquerors do the same. But the bobbleheads are saying Belichick didn't like the showboating. Ho-freakin-hum...

* Weird betting lines so far, IMHO. Apparently nobody thinks the Pats can play a blowout in the SB, so while everyone knows better than to bet against them, nobody's willing to give all that many points. I wouldn't really care, except it demonstrates lingering disbelief in the Pats. "Yes, they blew out the Colts because they have no D, and the Steelers because they had a rookie QB, but they can't blow out Philly." A large part of this is that the Patriots have won two SBs on last-second kicks, and most people associated with sports are so incapable of creative thought that they keep reflexively predicting that the future will look suspiciously like the past. What-ever.

* Daily reminder: Philly can win this game. Definitely not over yet, guys. Early evidence: Andy Reid is 9-0 after a bye week, which means he knows how to game-plan. Also, lots of chatter about how the Eagles will be happy with their NFC title? Hogwash. Yeah, they celebrated, but that was three hours before they got a bucket of cold water thrown on them in the form of notice that their opponents would be the Pats. I personally would guess that they know the task ahead and will take it seriously enough. The obstacle for the Eagles isn't desire, it's whether they will know what to do on the biggest stage, against a far better opponent than anyone else they played this year. The opening minutes of the SB will, IMHO, feel a lot different to them than their games up to now.

Sunday, January 23, 2005

Endless Loop

Some thoughts:

* How do you finish the sentence, "I knew it was over when..."? For me, it was when the Steeler players spent the first quarter, already down 10-0 at home, celebrating every mundane play. How many times did a linebacker exult after stopping Dillon for a 3-yard gain? How many Jerome Bettis runs that didn't result in first downs or scores did Bettis woof about? It's kinda bush, and you just can't beat the Patriots if you can't match their professionalism.

* In fairness to the Steelers, emotion is a large part of their game. For the last 275 years, the Steelers have featured physical defense and an emphasis on running. They have good athletes, they get pumped up to win, and they keep it simple. Over time, the results are good, and this year that was especially true. So when Joey Porter screams to the crowd because it's now second and 7, it's just the way things are in Steelerville. But no human can keep that up every play, and the Patriots, well, they just keep going about their business, whether you are excited about the last play or not.

* Once Pittsburgh's emotion subsides, as it did somewhere during Rodney Harrison's three-minute sprint to the end zone, when all of Pittsburgh realised Roethisburgeraktiengesellschaft was wilting, they become somewhat more average. They did nothing to confuse the Pats; they mostly stopped the run, except at key moments, but gave it all back in the passing game; their own running game was bruising but predictable and stoppable. No doubt the Pats players will talk about how Pittsburgh was physical. The problem, is, the Patriots don't care. And you can't bully someone if they don't care.

* Cowher is described in some profiles today as the team's motivating force, the emotional lighter fluid. Question: aside from screaming and sticking out his chin, does he do anything else? The Steelers' game plan is to keep doing everything the same; they had no special schemes to defend the Patriots; they stuck with Bettis even though Staley has given the Patriots far more trouble; they have no higher level to take things up to in the postseason.... Cowher may have beaten Belichick once, but historians will have to go back and figure out how this happened. Because Cowher will never, ever outcoach Bill Belichick.

* I've never liked Cowher, mostly because I always thought the media was selling us this iron-jawed Steeler mystique. It is pure myth, and to make matters worse, everyone in Pittsburgh seems to buy into it. This is why they ain't going anyplace. You can't just push people around and play old-school football intimidation games and win the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, you're going to run into teams who can also play the ground game, who are also physical, and who can match your intensity. When that happens, where do you turn? Oh, sure, the Steelers led the league in rushing and rush defense, but the top playoff teams like New England were ranked in those categories too, and they can also pass and scheme and add new wrinkles, all of which helps win games. The Steelers' formula is great for beating up on weak division opponents, but that's it. Still, they've done this forever, so don't expect anyone in Steelerville to address the problem (i.e. get a new coach).

* Another item from the bitterness department: the same purposely awful turf that bit Ty Law's foot off cost the Steelers a touchdown, the Givens play where the DB just wiped out and flapped on the ground like a seal while Givens skated by.

* Actually, the moment it was really over was when they kicked on fourth and goal in the 3rd quarter. First down at the Patriot 4, and three plays later it was fourth down on the 3. The crowd was depressed when Cowher opted to kick the FG, but I actually thought he did the right thing. He knew, as all Pats fans knew, that there was no way they were going to score on fourth down at that point. But Cowher was damned either way: he could blow the game with a futile play, or he could take his three and acknowledge that the Patriot defense was not going to be beat.

* You never know who will win that Super Bowl, but I like our chances. Actually, if I were betting I'd be a bit depressed. Who the hell is going to bet against the Pats! For lack of Philly money, the line is going to be a bit inflated, I would guess, like 13. I don't think the Patriots can be stopped, but I wouldn't want to give the Eagles as many points as they're going to get.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Gaining Ground

With Roethlisbergermacherstiller on the wane, or so they say, much of the focus this week is on how Pittsburgh will rely on their running attack to lead them to the win. Seems logical enough: the Steelers' robotic reliance on the run yielded the NFL's highest gross rushing total, 2464 yards, on 618 carries (about 40 percent more carries than the average team). Good ball control offenses tend to do well this time of year, so the strength of their ground game makes the Steelers a sound favorite.

Problem is, they may be #1 in total yards, but arguably still not have the best rushing attack in the stadium Sunday. The Patriots ranked seventh in total rushing yards, 2170 yards, but their 4.1 yards per carry edged out the Steelers' 4.0 yard average. They ran a lot less because they weren't protecting a rookie QB, but when the Patriots did run, they did so as well or marginally better than the Steelers. People can define "best" however they want, but in my mind it means "most effective," i.e. most successful at running when they attempted to do so. Pittsburgh's specialty is monotony, not effectiveness. Bottom line: both teams can run the ball.

Of course, it's all relative, and you could argue that the Steelers have a slight advantage in the ground game because the Patriots will be running against Pittsburgh's top-ranked rushing defense, one that yielded a mere 3.6 yards per carry, while the Patriot defense assigned to stop the Bus gave up 3.9 over the season. But then, the Patriots have a history of successfully forcing Bettis to run wide, where he is as worthless as tits on a boar; while the Steelers have never faced Corey Dillon in Silver and Blue. No doubt both sides want to control the ball, as a means to turn up the pressure on each other, whereupon either the beleaguered visitors or the rookie QB will crack. Should be a great test of strength in the trenches, and wills on the sidelines.
Overdogs

I spent almost all of Tuesday on the road, which meant I got plenty of time to sample the national tradewinds on next Sunday's game. And I can tell you, the battle for lack of respect is well underway.

Patriots fans persisted in calling Dan Patrick and the Fox idiots insisting that the team was getting far less respect than it deserved. The Sports Guy has a nice breakdown on exactly how little respect went their way for the Colt game -- unbeknownst to non-bettors like me, by kickoff the Colts were actually favored. Yikes. Meanwhile, Steeler fans are roiling over the fact that the Pats are the early favorite on their turf next weekend, despite their Halloween pummelling. No doubt Steeler players will be thinking about that too.

In my book, the battle for lack of respect will go to the Steelers, but only by default. Mort just declared at ESPN.com that the Patriots are the best team ever. Fans on the site's poll seem to agree, although my hunch is that at least half the votes are coming from southeastern Massachusetts. The coronation of the Patriots is almost imminent, with pundits split between calling them a dynasty now, regardless of what happens in the next few weeks, or waiting two more games. So, as useful and even fair as it has been in the past for the Patriots to motivate themselves by claiming nobody respects them, I think the chance to do so this week is gone. Not credible. Move on guys.

But the Steelers shouldn't get too much mileage out of the Rodney Dangerfield pose either. That they are home dogs reflects the practical nature of bettors, who if nothing else are tired of losing money on whomever the Pats are playing. The Steelers are one of the perennially most beloved (and often overrated) franchises in sports, and until last week's misery you could probably find more glowing stories about Ben Roethlisburgermeisterfrau in the national sports archives from this season than about Tom Brady... by a longshot. There is plenty of love out there for the men of steel... it's just that right now, nobody feels like picking against the Pats, and looking like an idiot, again.

No, respect won't be a factor this week. But revenge -- on both sides -- will.

Monday, January 17, 2005

The Sound of Awe



shhhhh.
What We Learned


Once again, several members of the international football punditry called it for the Colts, possibly even a majority. Vegas had the Pats a mere two point favorite. And, I admit, I was nervous. But more than ever the Pats' domination of the Colts proved several key points.

* One, good defense beats good offense. The mistake was in wondering whether the Patriots still had a good defense without Law and Seymour. The mistake was in acting as if Law had been there all year, and just recently injured. The mistake was in not looking down the roster and seeing who else might be there to make plays. Ultimately, the Patriots have a f---king Great Defense, and it's not because of any single person. It's talent, size and quickness (things Belichick has been accumulating over the last four offseasons), and it's preparation, dedication, and scheming, all across the roster. So yeah, Indy has a nice offense, but they will never beat the Patriots in Foxboro, or possibly anywhere else, until they build a defense as good or better than ours. It's the playoffs, and the AFC Championship will feature the #1 defense against the #2 defense. Exactly as it should.

* Two, teams win by being teams. The Colts are a collection of stat studs, but they are easy to expose if you are as smart as the Pats. They have invested heavily in Manning and Harrison, and yesterday they lost because their defense got run over
by the Patriots' running game. We've got 53 guys ready to play, they have a single MVP. So when, once again, the media spent the whole week talking about how Manning would get his revenge, the Patriots undoubtedly took that to heart. To be fair, I heard a LOT of people in the media saying, hold on, these are the defending Champs, it won't be as easy as you think. There is a lot of respect out there for what the Patriots have done. But the media can't help but latch on to a star storyline; it's too easy to write, too tempting to pass up. They do it every year, and every year a faceless Patriot team proves them wrong again.

[During the game yesterday I decided to stop wrestling with whose jersey I would buy to replace my Lawyer Milloy one. I now think it's the perfect one to have, it's a non-number. And it saves me from the impossible task of identifying a single player whose jersey I really should wear, above all others Who would you pick? Dillon? Brady? Faulk? McGinest? Vrabel? Bruschi? You see where this is going... Every one of these guys, and another two dozen, could be the face of the franchise.]

* Three, never underestimate the heart of a champion. I'm not sure the entire world disrespected them, but enough people did to piss them off, and they played with the pride and determination of a champ. The Patriots players did not want to hear about how they couldn't stop anybody without Ty Law; all year it seems, they've seen Troy Brown and Randall Gay work hard and prepare and make plays week after week in the backfield. Remember the 1999 baseball playoffs, where the defending champ Yankees had to deal with challenges from a tough Sox team, as well as the loaded A's, Indians, and Braves? They lost a total of one game, the Clemens beatdown in Fenway. Like those Yankee teams, the Patriots are a great Champion, and should not be regarded otherwise until someone doesn't merely beat them, but drives a stake in them. It might be a while; the Patriots won't be so stupid as to start replacing their core with imported media stars.

So what do we make of Manning at this point? I definitely don't like him, he irritates me the way Al Gore seemed to irritate swing voters and media types, in that I should respect him but never actually could. All the audibles, all the robotic comments, the ultra-whitebread image, all the media glare... spare me. [I actually thought the Patriots were mocking him by having Brady do so much audibling of his own, pointing fingers everywhere... it reminded me of Jeter's imitation of Nomar in the 1999 All Star Game, except that in the latter case a little levity was more in fun.] I can't stand listening to how great he is when he hasn't accomplished a God Damn Thing in comparison to Tom Brady. He's not some super genius who cannot be defended, even by the Patriots; he's a smart QB with a good arm, but all he's ever done against the Patriots is turn the ball over and lose.

In fairness, though, I didn't think Manning was the problem yesterday. His receivers were atrocious, and the offensive line didn't get the run game going. Or maybe it was the coaches, who didnt' have the patience to stick with the run, which might have worked. And, ultimately, their defense couldn't get off the field. I thought there was a great cat-and-mouse game going on with the Pats' offense, whose obvious strategy was to rely on Dillon to move the ball and keep Manning off the field. It was as if both teams knew that the run game would come, but the Patriots went to great lengths to set it up, teasing the Colts with it at first, then pounding some, then backing off, before finally unleashing the full fury of their physical ground game in the third quarter. Anyway, that's what killed Indy, not Manning per se.

And now? Manning is done. Seriously. This was his best shot, just like the 1984 season when Marino threw his gazillion TDs and 5000 yards, only to get crushed by the Niners in the Super Bowl. The Colts face losing Edgerrin James as a free agent, after they invested half their cap in Manning and Harrison. My guess is they are too stupid to let him go, and will invest another third of their cap in another single player. I think Manning actually does get that it takes 53 decent players to win, rather than a handful of stars and a leftover defense. But I don't think the organization does, or if they do they only care about putting on a good show. In the Belichick era, where you don't have a chance if you can't spread your money around carefully and broadly, the Colts are the biggest sinners of all. And it will only get worse. Seriously, they are DONE.

The Patriots have a couple games left, at least if they win next week. But win or lose, yesterday they cemented their place in the history books as one of the greatest organizations in all of sports. The accolades are starting to catch up, with commenters admitting that they can no longer deny what's going on. They will do just that, if the Pats don't beat the Steelers; then we'll have to hear about how Belichick couldn't beat Cowher. But it will be interesting after yesterday's win, and the Steelers' narrow escape, how people see this matchup.
Cut That Meat! Cut That Meat!

* Much credit to the Pats fans for the year's best mocking chant, directed at the league's most deserving target. Also the sign "Make Vacation Plans" is clever and a propos on about five levels.

* Borges' column today is a mix of boxing language and classic piling on homerism. Not pretty if you're neutral. But I watched that game yesterday and totally love the way the Pats just flat buried those prettyboy dome types. So if Borges wants to submit 1500 words, 1300 of which contain references to kicking someone in the teeth, it's fine by me.

* Borges also called this the second-greatest win of the budding Patriot dynasty. I think that may be right. The Rams SB was obviously #1. So #2 would have to be either of the Colt games, the Oakland game, or the old PIttsburgh game. Throw out the last SB; they should've won by more; and the Titan game. The Oakland game gets tossed, even though it was easily the most dramatic game, perhaps in the team's history. But it wouldn't have been so dramatic if they hadn't been outplayed for much of it. Of the two Colt games, this is the greatest because of all the missing pieces, and the fact that the Pats crushed the Colts more resoundingly than last season. So either yesterday's or the 2002 Pittsburgh AFC Championship, I could go either way.

Friday, January 07, 2005

Vacation!

After a grueling week of work following the holidays, I am SOOOO ready for some time away. Back in time for kickoff at Gillette. Talk amongst yourselves...
Oh No...

Ty Law is officially out for the playoffs. Not only does this downgrade our chances of a Patriots repeat, it also could mean we've seen our best-ever cornerback play his last game as a Patriot. [Did Michael Haynes ever run back a pick for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, for the Patriots? Did Raymond Clayborn? Sorry, end of discussion.] On the other hand, perhaps his non-season will make him more amenable to a contract restructuring. We shall see.

On the bright side, the Patriots officially have their rallying cry. OK, so it's the same one they've been using all season, but they're no longer the favorites (in my mind), they're a team trying to overcome adversity and scratch and claw its way back to the top. If it works, it will be ever more entertaining than the kingpin role we had in mind originally.
Wave of Retractions Grips Sox Blogosphere!

Foolish of me to write a post (the next one, which I'll leave up for now, for posterity or penance) based on something Shaughnessy wrote. Here is a transcript of a radio interview of more recent vintage. Mientky seems like a normal human after all. And if you didn't know already, CHB refers to the curly haired bastard. This time they don't mean me.
Moneyball

Doug Mientkiewicz is either an idiot or a good reader of tea leaves. If he has any hope of landing the first base job for the Sox this season, his bizarre insistence on cashing in by selling off the ball from the final out of the World Series is a first class, one-way, express ticket out of town.

Shaughnessy, who has turned the page as a writer lately now that his bitter meme has been rendered moot, did a nice job on a jaw-dropping interview with Mientky on the subject. If somehow you missed it, Mientky wants to own a piece of Sox lore, or if not, he wants to get paid for his foresight.

Foresight? At the crowning moment of achievement, somewhere among "just catch the ball" and "we did it," Mientky's thought process turned to "wow, I could get 7 figures for this thing on eBay!" Charming. He fled with the ball to Miami, and since he's not from here to begin with he clearly doesn't appreciate the intense sentimental value of such matters to the 10 million or so New Englanders who were waiting all those years. That alone would earn him some pretty intense language during his pregame introduction in Fenway this April. But then saying he could just as easily be bought out... well, it didn't take too much prodding to get him to reveal his true colors.

Update: Mientky now says he was laughing and joking with Shaughnessy when he said he could be bought. Did Shaugnessy sandbag him?? Does anyone think that couldn't happen?? If Mientky was just having a laugh, then, a) he picked the wrong guy to joke with; b) I take back every nice thing I ever said about Shaughnessy, which isn't much; and c) this post has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. If Mientky was serious, well, read on.

Of course, Mientky can be forgiven for feeling insecure, both financially and in terms of his 2005 calendar, after Millar staked his claim to what little job Mientky had left with his current employers. Worse, for all his great glove work, there was little else to make another team want to pay $3 mil for him next year. Mientky wants a starting job, but until he accepts the fact that his value only begins to approach his price as a right-side supersub, he may not have much work this year. I love his defense at first, and love it even more that he can provide the same at second, but I have that luxury. Mientkiewicz isn't asking me for salary arbitration.

If Mientky thinks he's already gone, then the insult he has just heaped on New England doesn't mean much, and however craven it may be, he might as well try to get paid on his way out. [Gotta wonder how high the bidding will go now that we know who's getting the money...] But, if he had a future in Fenway, at $3 mil per or more, and he's just blown it over a ball worth $100,000 (perhaps), then he's not only a jerk, he's an idiot.

One more thought -- other than memorabilia collectors, who really ought to consider medication, who really cares about the ball? I'm pretty sure the players wanted the trophy, not to mention the rings (will they give a ring to Mientky now? Has he blown that too? Wouldn't a ring be worth more in an auction than the stupid ball?). I stood outside Fenway after the parade and roared with the small crowd as Henry and Lucchino paraded past us with the trophy. Nobody there gave a rat's ass about the last ball. Personally, I'd rather have the ball that ended the ALCS. Or the one that Ortiz jacked out in the first inning of game 1. Or Damon's grand slam ball in New York.

Mientkiewicz needs to hire a PR consultant in the next 24 hours, who will counsel him to fly to Boston with the ball and present it to Lucchino, personally, at Fenway. Then all will be forgotten. If not, well, in the eyes of the Nation he might as well say it's been his lifelong dream to play for the Yankees.

Thursday, January 06, 2005

Bronx Rant, Revisited

I know a few of you appreciated the link I posted the other day to Larry Mahnken's piece on the Hardball Times website calling BS on the Yankees' offseason moves. Nothing like a Yankee fan intelligently ripping his own team. Well, Larry maintains his own fan blog, which I am thinking of posting a permanent link to as a photonegative to our own work here. It's well done, more flash than this, and takes the same approach attempted here of combining stats and observation into some sort of learned analysis. Check it out here if you're interested. Hint: he has a lot of posts from October, 2004. Warning: he has a lot of posts from October, 2003.

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

R.I.P. Jason White

I was going to start this entry by pointing out that no Heisman Trophy winner has ever come out of the college ranks with worse pro prospects than Jason White. But then, in the past 15 years, the Downtown Athletic Club, not to be confused with anyone having anything to do with pro scouting, has awarded the nation's most coveted individual prize to, let's see, Eric Crouch, Chris Weinke, Danny Wuerffel, Gino Torretta, and Andre Ware. So if White flops before next Halloween as a pro, at least he'll have some company. If he goes completely undrafted, well, that would be a new low. Even Heisman hopeful Joe Dudek got an offer to try out.

Still, has anyone failed so badly in postseason college football after enjoying so much success? Either White is as bad as USC (and K-State, and LSU) made him look, or he's got a serious case of the jitters. He's the anti-Brady, all gaudy numbers until it matters. So, as opposed to the other pro flops, all of whom had the decency to keep winning until they left college, White's January collapses make him the worst Heisman Trophy winner ever.

As for the game, seriously, who cares? I'm sure there's some joy in So.Cal. No doubt there is some teeth-gnashing in Auburn-ville, not only at the unfairness of having to play a meaningless Sugar Bowl but at the prospect of losing football as a distraction from the fact that they're in Alabama with nothing to do for the next 8 months. And in Oklahoma? Well, no doubt people all over the state are looking through the bible for something that will explain why Jesus wanted the Trojans, again.

For years I rooted for Oklahoma, which seems almost impossible to explain except when you look at the personality of the Switzer teams -- and I mean the team, not just the coach. There were all the amazing athletes, the bizarre, bruising wishbone style. There was Charles Johnson with his Honta Yo sweatband, the first player ever to rely on native American sloganry, a clue that Oklahoma isn't just made of pasty white faces. There was Billy Sims and pre-politics JC Watts, Keith Jackson and Jamelle Holieway. Even a Troy Aikman cameo. They were incredibly fast and loose, high stakes gamblers with the ball, looking for a 2-on-1 situation at the end of the trenches where, with a well-timed pitch would send Marcus DuPree off to the races again. They had amazing flair.

These days, I have to say I really don't care. I look at the Oklahoma players and fans and see red state America, conservative, dull, xenophobic America. I see a state that just elected one of the worst humans ever to sit in the United States Senate, an ex-physician who sterilized women without their knowledge because they didn't oppose abortion vehemently enough. So when they all get crushed by a bunch of kids from Los Angeles, a place that may just be the opposite end of the universe, why the hell should I be upset?

Anyway, I try to keep the politix to a minimum. So let's all be thankful that, notwithstanding the BCS, we know exactly who is Number 1 this year.

Tuesday, January 04, 2005

Bronx Rant

Click here for a heartwarming deconstruction, apparently by a Yankee fan, of how the Yankees have completely loused up their team this offseason.
Jersey Jinx

Ahem... so I'm not superstitious. We have between one and three black cats, depending on what percentage of fur cover you count. I've stopped rearranging the furniture during tense sports moments. I called the Sox the champions after Game 2 of the WS. I've even tinkered with not wearing my Lawyer Milloy jersey on certain Sundays, just to make sure I haven't created any critical routines.

But that doesn't mean there aren't jinxes around. The SI Cover Jinx is virtually iron clad. And so too is my Jersey Jinx. A few years back I bought a Nomar jersey... he has since gone into the tank, and all the way to Chicago. Before the first Super Bowl I bought the above-mentioned Lawyer Milloy jersey. That worked out for a month, after which his skills dropped off and he got his ass fired, probably the lowest point of the otherwise sacrosanct Belickick era. In 2003 I bought Stacey a Pedro t-shirt... and he promptly blew Game 7 of the ALCS, then mailed it in this year on his way out. Last year, in an effort to protect individual players, I bought a Bruins jersey with no number on it... and the entire league shut down.

Now my prized possession is a Manny jersey, authentic and all, purchased in time for the World Series, in which he won the MVP. And, of course, he's still potentially being dangled in trades.

Where will it end? Do I have to perform a ritual involving a live chicken? Can I use a Guinea Hen instead? If any readers out there have psychic powers, please let me know. Thank you.

Monday, January 03, 2005

Second Season

It all begins today. Well, more like Wednesday or Thursday, since the Patriots will undoubtedly spend a few days at home chilling out before the next Super Bowl run. Meanwhile, ESPN.com has a big splashy feature about how the Patriots will win again.

Will they? Since it's worthless to try to construct an argument as to why they will or will not -- this is the NFL, not the scripted NBA -- all I will say is that if Seymour and Law can somehow play like they do, I don't like anyone else's chances better. If our defensive backfield is in disarray, someone will eventually expose it. Also, our offensive line can be blitzed -- is that abnormal? Can every line be blitzed? Would it be more accurate to say that Brady's minimal mobility makes him a bit vulnerable to blitzing? Anyway, this team isn't perfect, but last year we were wondering if we'd have a running game, so any concerns about the offense is pure nitpicking. The defense... like I said, if they're healthy, why would they not come through like they always have?

IMHO. Debates?

I will say, though, that the Patriots are seriously becoming a dynasty, and I expect they will be when they're through. Seriously. Two super bowls are only a part of the argument; to me it has more to do with two straight 14-2 seasons. Look at the Niners of the 80s and 90s, the most recent true dyansty. The Niners won the SB in 82, 85, 89, 90 and 95. Their record toggled back and forth between 10- and 14- win seasons. Without doing extensive research, we can assume the 10-win seasons (of which there are a lot) were the years coming off championships, when for some reason (injuries? retirement?) they needed time to reload. Because they were well run (and there was no salary cap) they would then add whatever available proven commodities were out there to fill their needs. Deion Sanders and the like. Overall, they held together a solid, championship core, and ran the organization spotlessly, so that when the pieces were in place and the circumstances in their favor, they won.

Well, that's what I see now and expect in the future with the Pats. Will they win the SB this year? Tough call... the circumstances aren't perfect (injuries, lack of home field in the AFC final perhaps) but they're not that bad either: they have to beat Manning one more time, but in Foxboro. Then prolly go on the road to beat a Pittsburgh team that's been great all year, but doesn't have any rings to show they know what to do in January. Both games are a coin flip to me.

But as has been the case in three of the last four years, the Patriots have mastered virtually everything within their control. In football there are far more circumstances beyond the control of even a Bill Belichick, so no team can expect to be in the Conference Championship every year, let alone the Super Bowl. But a team can construct a solid foundation, establish a system that everyone conforms to (because the players know if they do it will work), and a front office that maintains the roster/salary flexibility it needs to respond when problems arise. They will win their share of championships, but more reliably, they will be a playoff contender every single year, a playoff favorite more often than not, and a champion when it all falls into place. And that is exactly what the Patriots are.

[BTW, the recognition is finally there. Not only is nobody disputing what they are up to now, as has been the case in both SB years, but I bet you would have trouble finding a bobblehead who would still say that the SB win over the Rams was an upset. Three years later, given what we know about the respective franchises based on what's happened since, doesn't that win look awfully logical? People were surprised when it happened because they saw Belichick football for the first time, but they've seen enough of it since to know that the Patriots were, in fact, the better team that year.]
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