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Friday, April 22, 2005

Offensive Trends: Final Tally

OK, to recap here: I score the Sox having upward potential at right field, shortstop (slight), third and catcher, and flat everywhere else. This is a calculation of how much offense the Sox can expect at each position compared to last season, and all of the "upgrades" except for catcher reflect some assumption that, unlike last year, the Sox won't be filling gaps due to injury. I'm pretty firm on all the "upgrade" calls, but I'm willing to concede that calling second and center field flat is generous. Bellhorn looks terrible, as he always does in odd-numbered years, and Damon is falling behind last year's torrid pace early on. Even still, the season is three weeks on.

Remember, last year the Sox scored 948 runs with Mueller, Garciaparra and Nixon sitting a lot in favor of Youkilis, Pokey Reese and Gabe Kapler. If everyone performs to their career norms and stays healthy, they have to improve, unless something transformed opposing pitching in the offseason or the 2004 Sox were all on the juice. In other words, it would be bizarre if they didn't seriously threaten the 1000 runs total.

Incidentally, the Sox' 87 runs in their first 16 games puts them on pace for 880. Ah, but once the weather, and David Ortiz, warm up...

Thursday, April 21, 2005

Sweeps Week

Another notes column...

* Despite being outscored 9-0 in two nights, the Orioles still look like a team that might hang around a long time. Primarily because their pitching is significantly less awful than I had suspected. OK, I didn't see Bedard and Ponson and whoever else they run out there, but the Os have a decent bullpen, and Chen and Lopez looked pretty tough. Yes, these guys are hopelessly inconsistent, but they've been fairly consistent -- and good -- since the Orioles re-hired chain-smoking ex-pitching coach Ray Miller to return to his old job. Rodrigo Lopez is a guy who intrigued me since coming up and being an instant winner. After two subsequent years in the wilderness, he's back with better location and a maddeningly slow changeup. Let's face it, at this level everyone has talent, it's just a matter of finding a way to perform. So even if Lopez was getting pounded up in the zone for a year and a half, the fact is he has performed since last August, and there's no reason he can't continue doing so. Miller gets some props here. That, plus about 900 runs, should get them 85 wins or so.

* Bill Welke can kiss my ass. In fairness, he gave both sides a strike zone that bridged the batter's boxes and scraped the shoetops. He also gave a lot of stares to players who had every right to jam a bat splinter into his frontal lobe. So, for those of you scoring at home, he tried to cover up his pathetic umpiring with childish belligerence. His momma must be so proud. If the Sox weren't winning, they'd still be screaming at him. But that's why guys like Francona succeed -- they let things like this go, and settle for winning the game instead.

* Theo's looking pretty sharp right now. For Wells and Clement to shut down that lineup is no small feat, especially in that silly homer-happy park where Jay Gibbons can threaten the wall with a classic popup swing. Clement made great pitches, didn't get rattled, moved the ball around constantly, and didn't look like a guy afraid to walk people. He aggressively went to his out pitches on three-ball counts, to guys who hit homers off the bat handle as well as the barrel. Wells threw strikes, strikes, strikes... and not bad ones either. Most of the previews that went against the Sox criticized the loss of Pedro for Wells and Clement. If Wells and Clement keep it up (or at least come close), this is a 100-win team.

* Clement is tough, indeed, but Brian Roberts was swinging like a AAA hitter, and I don't think that's all a credit to the pitcher. I think last night shows why he was so lightly regarded all these years. Or at least that he probably won't hit over .400 the rest of the way.

Wednesday, April 20, 2005

Trend #6: Outfield

[In a continuing series where, between diaper changes and training on the bike, the author tries to stay awake long enough to justify his claim that the Sox will score 1000 runs this year, because last year they got to 948 and surely this year they'll be better, right?]

I'll lump these three positions together because so little time is needed to look at the individuals. Will any of the three outfield spots produce differently than in 2004? Manny is exactly the same player every year, in all situations, at least if you look at OPS and accept the varying RBI totals as quirks of fate (injury, guys on base). Tito tends not to put his worst two on-base guys in the 1 and 2 slots, like Grady Little did, so the numbers should remain gaudy. But the real indicator of Manny's performance is that he has varied his OPS between 1.154 and 1.009 since 1999. Since the "lowest" number occurred last year, you could either argue he's in decline or that he's due for a little bounce-back. But variations of this size are blips, tell us nothing, and point us back to the fact that Manny is going to be the exact same hitter he has been. Repeat after me: thank you Dan Duquette!!

Damon, meanwhile, is coming off his best season in a while, but the CW is that this is where he should have been, and was before all the personal stuff got in his way. That .857 OPS is awfully high, and maybe it reflects a fluke, but then again maybe it reflects his playing in the most balanced Sox lineup ever, with guys on base when he gets up and mashers waiting on deck as well. It's human nature to predict a slight downward adjustment, and his early returns say so too. But he's also in his walk year, as well as his physical prime (though not for much longer). I'll go with the CW and predict a little less production, but not any meaningful difference. The guy has scored over 100 runs every year since 1998, and when you're a leadoff hitter that means you're more or less doing your job every year.

It's in right where we should see an actual difference... and a positive one. Trot Nixon was limited to 48 games last year and even then spent some of that precious time searching for his form. But for the postseason, where he did enough to be called a key contributor both offensively and defensively, you could otherwise call it a lost year. And to what... nagging leg and back issues? Such injuries do matter, but it's not like he had his knee sewn together. So there is no reason we shouldn't see him play like the Trot Nixon whose career was steadily marching upward, all the way to a .975 OPS in 134 games in 2003. By minimizing his embarassing moments against lefties, Sox Management made him into a guy who gets a few straggling 10th place MVP votes. In other words, a somewhat overlooked force. With Jay Payton in the fold -- a guy who mashes lefties -- the Sox have the makings of a killer platoon in right, one that might even outhit the memorable 2004 exploits of Gabe Kapler, Dave Roberts and Kevin Millar. Ahem. If Nixon is all the way back, this is a significant uptick.

So let's call the outfield trend in general on the upswing.

Final tallies and predictions in a moment.

Sunday, April 17, 2005

Yankees Suck!

Well, maybe, maybe not... and I hate to give credence to the least original expression of angst in the many-million-year-old history of the impenetrable chunk of rock known as New England. But in starting the season 4-8, the Yankees have certainly driven their peeps to openly question if the Great Yankee System is finally breaking down, despite all of Steinbrenner's expensive flashy bandaids.

It's only 12 games, but the elements plaguing the Jankees right now are:

* Crap relief pitching on a rotating basis from Rivera (2 blown saves), Gordon (1 BLS, one other loss), and Sturtze (who earned a hold Saturday by giving up four runs in an inning of work).

* Mediocre starting pitching by everyone. Other than Jaret Wright's win over Schilling last week, the Yankees have given up either 7 or 8 runs in their last 6 games. Mussina has been messy, Johnson got taken deep three times in Fenway, Brown was horrible yesterday and Pavano can't win. Oh, and before his Fenway win Wright had been shelled in a 12-5 demolition at home.

* Nobody is hitting over .242 except Jeter, Sheffield and Matsui. See any $25 million names in there? OK, Posada and A-Rod are bound to come around, and Bernie Williams won't be stuck on .200 forever. But the problem for the Yankees is that Giambi (.229), Sierra (.208), Womack (.220) and Tino (.185) might just be what the numbers say they are, or at least not much better.

All off-season my favorite Yankee blogs were complaining that the bottom of the order was weak, that the lineup was deeply flawed defensively as well, and that the new starters were all iffy save for Johnson. So far, all of their worst fears are coming true.

Then again, maybe ours will too when the Orioles roll into town...

Thursday, April 14, 2005

Armageddon, Updated

First off, the "fan incident." Clearly the Red Sox and Yankees need to spend a couple seasons apart, because the nonsense level is becoming hard to take. A few years ago two psychopaths brutally assaulted a Royals coach at Comiskey Park... and I swear it didn't draw the outrage I'm hearing after some numbnuts lightly cuffed Sheff (hello children) across the face while digging a ball out of the corner. ESPN is running a catalog of fan incidents, including such beauties as the time a Cubs fan stole some Dodger's hat and took off with it. They neglect to mention the fact that one incident a season means another 2400 games were incident-free. Larry Bowa is suggesting putting fans in the gulag if they reach on the field, apparently because the current penalties are only enough to deter incidents in 99.99% of the games. Joe Torre called the guy "not fit to walk the street, let alone attend ballgames," despite being from a city where a lot of, um, interesting characters walk the street.

Now, don't get me wrong, the fan was being stupid (news alert?) and by rights Sheffield could've clocked him, if this were in a high school locker room. But even Sean Penn knows celebrities give up the right to dispense justice when they take the fame, and Sheffield did a fine job restraining himself. Security, meanwhile, kept the peace, and the whole incident took less time than was spent ejecting Ron Jackson from arguing balls and strikes. So I must ask... what is the big freakin deal??? I'm Sheffield's age, and I've been hit a lot harder in mosh pits, fairly recently, for fun. There is a certain indignation that many of us feel when someone touches our face, and like I said, Sheff (hello children) had a right to be pissed. But if this constitutes violence in even the smallest mind, it's time we started getting live video from Fallujah piped into the workplace for perspective. Please, for the love of god, can we move on?

The games themselves were curious, as baseball games tend to be from time to time. The Red Sox should've probably won Wednesday and lost Thursday, at least if you look at scoring opportunities. Jaret Wright should have been run off the mound in the third inning, but either the Sox couldn't get that one big hit or Wright managed to make that last out pitch, just seconds after bouncing ball four. Schilling, meanwhile, is cruising along, hits a couple little bumps... and is suddenly down 5-2, heading for the showers. Last night the Sox were up 4-1 at one point, despite being outhit 8-3. The umpiring was atrocious, but the pitching was almost bad enough to deserve it.

But the games were not entirely forgettable. We learned:

* Edgar Renteria is gonna hit in Fenway.
* Randy Johnson can be touched.
* Reports of Giambi's death are premature.
* Keith Foulke can't pitch in early April.
* Curt Schilling's ankle has been successfully reattached.

And that's about it. So it's now time for the baseball world to forget about the Sox and Yankees for a while, and get back to playing baseball. I for one am relieved.
Trend #5: Shortstop

OK, let's get this exercise moving again and wrap it up. Remember, the question before us is, will this Red Sox team score 1000 runs? Last year's total was 948, and IMHO the revised lineup, if healthy, should be even better.

Then: With the gloomy spectre of Nomar Garciaparra looming in the clubhouse whirlpool, the Sox spent most of the first half of the season running Pokey Reese out to short for defensive purposes, in recognition of his ability to prevent runs in both halves of an inning. When Nomar did return, his bat spoke with its usual authority for most of his 38 games, but his defense and attitude sucked ass, and he got run out of town for another future Sox castoff, Orlando Cabrera, paving the way for the Sox to win a championship for the first time in 865 years.

Cabrera is widely praised by people like me for the Sox' remarkable turnaround after the big trade, and there is no question that Sox fans and probably players found his defense inspiring. Offensively, although he stopped his sudden decline when he changed teams and his aggressive, pull-hitting swing seemed tailored for Fenway, the reality is that his offensive contribution was less potent than Nomar's: both his slugging and on-base average were about 50 points lower than Nomar's. And we ran Nomar out of town on a rail.

So when Theo and the Stat Pack abandoned Cabrera's fine glove and decent offense for Edgar Renteria's fine glove and better offense, Sox fans were expected to rejoice. It hasn't worked out in the first 9 games, but I've made too many stupid moves in my fantasy leagues based on early April statistics to suggest that Renteria's slow start means a damn thing. The big stat is on-base, and Renteria's career averages go 30-40 points higher than Cabrera's with a sparkling .398 as his best season. The other factor is character, as Theo tries to remake the clubhouse into a bunch of Varitek clones, i.e. the Patriots of baseball. But never mind that, this is a discussion of offense. If Renteria is career average, he's an upgrade over Cabrera's career average but a slight downgrade (in slugging at least) from what we might have gotten out of Nomar. The betting on Yawkey Way is that Renteria will blossom in Friendly Fenway and meet or exceed his averages. He'll never be Nomar in his pre-Mia prime, but he'll hit enough and do everything else to make management happy with the megadeal they shelled out.

So, to recap, the position has gone through an awful lot of change in the last two years, but we're just comparing to 2004's contributions from Porkey Reese, Nomar and O-Cab, and for that reason I'll call this a slight upgrade.

Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Derek and the Jersey

Today's Globe has an article headlined Lowe Tries to Iron Out Jersey Flap. The "flap" refers to the notion that people in LA are upset because he wore a Sox jersey during Monday's ceremony, despite having signed with the Dodgers over the winter. Unfortunately, although the media is waiving this notion around, nobody in LA has stepped forward to say they are upset. Exactly all of his teammates who've been interviewed said they had no problem whatsoever, and Tuesday's LA Times, picking up on the immediate negative reaction among Angelinos, devoted zero lines of type to the matter. In fact, at this point it seems that the only people who did care were Harold Reynolds and John Kruk on ESPN, who expelled a lot of heated CO2 trying to demonstrate their old-skool stripes. It should be noted, neither of them ever won a ring, but I'm sure they know all about the meaning of a ring ceremony anyway.

So why exactly is the Globe running this story, in which it identifies the complete lack of controversy? Who are the pinheads, the Globe editors or the people they're trying to sell a paper to?

Anyway, the real story isn't so much why Derek was there, but where were some of the other available ex-Sox stars? Pedro was the most obvious missing character, and I believe there was some grumbling about why he didn't make the 45-minute flight... but in his defense, it was opening day at Shea, and given a choice between ceremonies, he belongs at his new team's. Same goes for Mientky. Nomar could've made it, but the Sox are going to have to find some other way to say goodbye to him. He didn't belong at a celebration of the postseason, much as the fans might have liked to give him one last ovation. Gabe Kapler was scheduled to appear, but while changing planes at Narita he slipped on a baby octopus at a soba bar and bruised his sternum.

Monday, April 11, 2005

Everyone Gets a 2004 World Champions Ring Day

What struck me as I watched the Happiest Day in Red Sox History today, conveniently stuck at home with our virus-ridden little boy, was my continuing sense of disbelief...

* Was that Derek Lowe in a Sox uniform? Davey Roberts? The decisions the team made were sound overall, but it's still touching to see the castoffs around one last time. And for the record, nobody cares if they donned their old jersey for ten minutes. They play in the NL West, for god's sake. It's their last chance to be noticed.

* Big kudos to Sox fans for one of the best spontaneous mass one-liners in recent memory, referring of course to their send-up of Mariano Rivera during opening day introductions. Needs no further elaboration. Also, I was touched when the fans booed the Yankees' massage therapist.

* After the ring ceremony I drove across town to pick up a laptop so I could work at home, during which 1) Sage barfed on his carseat, and 2) both of Seattle's sports radio stations found time to predict the Sox' demise, based on their pitching woes that have led to a [gasp] 2-4 start. The former comes with the territory, but the latter is pure nonsense. Maybe losing Pedro will prove too much to bear (though again, what was the alternative, $5 mil in arbitration?), but among the reasons such sentiments are stupid are, in no particular order, the sample size, the timing, and the sweeping generalization. In October, no doubt, these same wags will talk about how April doesn't matter, that teams are in extended spring training. I've opined a lot about how the first two games of the NFL season are as awkward as speed dating. Baseball takes some warming up as well, particularly for a team like the Sox who experienced a lot of offseason turnover for a World Champion.

[Pause. Smile.]

Where was I? Right, anyway, so David Wells has chunked two straight starts, and the Sox failed to hit twice for Clement. Is it time to start stockpiling prospects for the rebuilding?

* That said, watching Wells huffing and puffing makes you wonder. It's possible to be built like Forrest Whitaker and still have an excellent cardiovascular system, but I'm not sure Boomer fits the description. Perhaps he has a history of playing himself into shape. Anyway, this bears watching.

* Also, is there an aura around Clement that sucks the life out of his own offense? When we got the guy, I did an analysis of the ridiculously parsimonious run support the Cubs gave him last year, and opined that things would be different in Beantown. Not to hit the panic button or anything, but after two anemic efforts in support of our prime free agent pitcher, is it time to hit the panic button?

* Anyway, today was glorious to watch. Not merely the ring ceremony, but the pasting the Sox put on the Yankees, a blowout that reflected as much charm as effort. Seriously, Mussina could've gotten out of at least two of those innings without the trouble that ensued, and Nixon's 2-run double would've been caught if the sun had been higher or the fielder had been someone other than Sheff (hello children). Things just broke right. But it should also be noted that the Sox brought their A-game, for the second time this season. And I, for one, was shocked. How can you go through a 60-minute lovefest and still be ready to crush the Yankees? Truly these are not the idiots... this is Varitek's team.

* As for the Jankees, as Luis Tiant used to call them, they didn't look so fearsome away from the Death Star in the Bronx... they looked more like the deer in the headlights that the Sox resembled when they were wandering aimlessly around Yankee Stadium in the late 90s. Mistakes, inability to finish innings, nuthin much happening at the plate. It should also be noted that Jaret Wright got pummeled in his Yankee debut, and after today the same could be said of the second time around for Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, and Mike Mussina. Did I say before that you can't judge a pitcher by one April start? Not sure, but three straight bombings shows they are far from invincible.

Friday, April 08, 2005

Trend #4: Third Base

We discussed at length during the 2003-04 offseason whether Bill Mueller would slump after winning the 2003 batting title (one of the least accurate distinctions in the game, now that the discovery of OPS has been scientifically assured). Well, Mueller did slump, if you just read the newspapers: his .283 average was nine points shy of his respectable career mean and down 34 points from '03, and his on-base average -- his bread and butter -- was a relatively human .365 (again, nine points off his career number, and 33 points down from '03). He was limited to 110 games, and when he wasn't in there, Kevin Youkilis provided eerily similar contributions.

Mueller, you remember Earth? Earth, Mueller.

I for one don't think this represents a renewed commitment to mediocrity by Mueller. The guy did two stints on the DL last year as he constantly battled knee problems. When he finally got completely healthy, he had a player-of-the-month run through August, before getting hurt again making a sliding play for a foul pop. His contributions in the postseason were mammoth, even if you just count his glove work. In my mind he is one of those "glue" pieces that hold the team together... but don't take my word for it: Theo's first act of the offseason was to extend his contract, so some pretty well-placed observers agree with me here.

This prediction is simple: if his knee is better than last year, the guy will be money again, just like in '03. And since I don't calculate trends based on hypothetical injury potential, this one is trending up.

Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Salvage Job

Just a few ideas about the opening series...

* There is no way the Red Sox think they have Mariano's number. Unlike the writers and most of the fans, the players have to live through the grind of a long season. So they alone know all too well that a bad week doesn't really mean bubkis. Neither does four consecutive games. At least, not when the player has an otherwise unblemished nine year history.

* In some ways it is good they started in New York. The biggest threat to the Sox, other than injuries, is overconfidence and an inability to handle success. Well, losing two, including one blowout, in the glare of the national spotlight, to their arch-rivals... if that didn't snap them back to reality, I doubt anything would. To repeat as champions, the Sox will need to bring at least as much desire to the field as they did last year. Opening their title defense in such an ugly manner probably kick-started that desire.

* Not too many conclusions to be drawn. After all, it's three games. But clearly the Sox need Schilling to have a typical year and be the ace, because there aren't any other ace candidates in this rotation. They'll be fine once Wells, Clement and Wake start pitching the 2-3-4 slots.

* It's been surprisingly unemotional to watch them out there. You get the sense this series means more to New York than to us, or at least that's how I felt. Another indication as to how all is changed... in the past, I was the one getting all frothy in April, while my NY friends would laugh and remind me that what happens in October is a little more important.

* Varitek is going to earn all $40 mil, trust me.

* Elsewhere, Pedro is going to earn his salary too, but right now I'd put the over/under on his record at 13 wins. The Met bullpen is a freaking joke, and Pedro usually needs three innings of help.

* You read it here first: the Cubs have an aura about them. OK, they got killed tonight, but they have the best roster in the league, and if Aramis Ramirez looks as good as he did Monday, they will be in the World Series.
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