Tuesday, November 30, 2004
Unleash the Media
I hold in my hands... well, the keyboard, but minutes ago it was the 2004 World Series DVD. And yeah, I managed to watch it tonight too.
The Sports Guy already gave a brief review of the film from a pre-screening, so I'm not sure how much I can add. But since it ships from LA, I suspect it is yet to arrive in your New England mailboxes, so I'll throw out a couple reactions.
First, it is WAY over-edited for my taste. For the first 30 minutes (everything leading up to the World Series, including the past collapses, sale of the Babe, and reenactment of man's Creation), it's like watching a movie preview, where you see 85 jump cuts in a 60-second trailer. I can't recall ever seeing a single complete sequence of pitch and hit. So it's not at all like watching ESPN highlights, and the games themselves are hard to appreciate. Hell, they don't even talk about A-Rod's Karate Kid impression.
However, what makes it great nonetheless is the feeling that you're in the dugout, clubhouse, etc. as events unfold. You hear the players talking and joking, watch them scream and spray champagne, and relive the moments in a new way. Kinda sports porn, but there is a significance -- you get to sense firsthand the warmth between the players, and the fun they had out there. Which, this year, was at least a quarter of the story.
But no Sox story could be unmitigated joy, right? This isn't, at least to me, because it's hard to look at several of these players who you know are gone and not feel sad. By the end of the film, not only did I want Pedro back, but Lowe and Kapler and Pokey too. Anyway, go enjoy it and experience it your own way.
I hold in my hands... well, the keyboard, but minutes ago it was the 2004 World Series DVD. And yeah, I managed to watch it tonight too.
The Sports Guy already gave a brief review of the film from a pre-screening, so I'm not sure how much I can add. But since it ships from LA, I suspect it is yet to arrive in your New England mailboxes, so I'll throw out a couple reactions.
First, it is WAY over-edited for my taste. For the first 30 minutes (everything leading up to the World Series, including the past collapses, sale of the Babe, and reenactment of man's Creation), it's like watching a movie preview, where you see 85 jump cuts in a 60-second trailer. I can't recall ever seeing a single complete sequence of pitch and hit. So it's not at all like watching ESPN highlights, and the games themselves are hard to appreciate. Hell, they don't even talk about A-Rod's Karate Kid impression.
However, what makes it great nonetheless is the feeling that you're in the dugout, clubhouse, etc. as events unfold. You hear the players talking and joking, watch them scream and spray champagne, and relive the moments in a new way. Kinda sports porn, but there is a significance -- you get to sense firsthand the warmth between the players, and the fun they had out there. Which, this year, was at least a quarter of the story.
But no Sox story could be unmitigated joy, right? This isn't, at least to me, because it's hard to look at several of these players who you know are gone and not feel sad. By the end of the film, not only did I want Pedro back, but Lowe and Kapler and Pokey too. Anyway, go enjoy it and experience it your own way.
Monday, November 29, 2004
Center Field
Johnny Damon ranked fourth in all of baseball in runs scored (123), posted a stellar .380 on base average, hit .300, knocked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, knocked in 98 runs from the leadoff hole, played excellent D, established himself within the soul of the clubhouse, and was a post-season hero. And for his efforts, by the middle of the World Series, people finally stopped talking about his beard. For the moment anyway.
This beard, or perhaps more accurately the long locks, constitute the most valuable thicket of cillia this side of Sam Donaldson's toupee. It's well documented that the clean cut Damon was in the midst of a three-year dropoff in numbers that relegated him from elite leadoff hitter status to more of a Mike Cameron-meets-Rocco Baldelli type. Not exactly what the Duke had in mind when he signed Damon away from Oakland, at the cost of a draft pick and 4 years, $30 mil. But halfway through that contract, and with a divorce behind him, Damon suddenly reverted back to his wild youth, putting up identical numbers to his last two years in Kansas City, when he established his value as a rare, true leadoff guy. This was more grist for the insatiable Sox offensive machine, as Damon not only found himself picked up by the middle of the order when he got on, but also managed to knock in those 7-8-9 guys at a regular clip. What do Jeff Bagwell, JD Drew, Andruw Jones, Soriano, I-Rod, Palmeiro, Javy Lopez, Pat Burrell, Mike Lowell and Bret Boone all have in common? They all knocked in fewer runs than Damon, and exactly none of these all-star sluggers are leadoff hitters.
Damon's resurgence came at an ideal time, since the Sox were sure to suffer some letdown from their 1000-run pace of 2003, courtesy of several injuries. Damon was a new man, so if Bill Mueller couldn't duplicate his spectacular 2003, Damon's improvement in 2004 more than made up the slack. The question is, who gets the credit for the new Johnny? Ron Jackson? A calmer home life? The hair?! Who the hell knows? But the evidence shows this was not a new Johnny, just a return to the old one, so smart money is on something other than his stroke, he already had the stroke. Let's call it an attitude adjustment, and more of an off-the-field one at that? All I know is, he was an elite player throughout the year, and is named in People's top 50 Sexiest people to boot.
Damon is signed through only 2005, so once the current FA class gets sorted out, the Sox brass should turn their attention to Damon, rather than let him out on his walk year. Much as I love him (as a player), he's an enigma: with three mediocre years in the book, it's hard to say what he would command on the open market now. But if he repeats 2004 in 2005, he'll get a hefty, hefty raise. Damon is loved in the Fens these days the way Nomar was when people still respected him. The subject of Damon's contract could be a running theme next year, for good or ill, and make that ill if half the team has walked before spring training. The Temptation of Theo Epstein is not just a 2004 story... alas.
Anyway, Damon will be 31 this coming season, and there is little reason to doubt he has several fine years left in him, if healthy. With true leadoff guys being so scarce, and with the Sox' attention to on-base percentage (the primary attribute of a leadoff guy), look for Damon to get a lot of love from the Sox when his turn comes up.
[Incidentally, if you didn't appreciate how stacked the Sox' offense is, consider that Damon was tied for fourth (with Ortiz) among Sox regulars in on-base average. Manny leads all, followed by Varitek and Millar. Could Millar fill in at leadoff? Some day, just for a game, this has to happen.]
Johnny Damon ranked fourth in all of baseball in runs scored (123), posted a stellar .380 on base average, hit .300, knocked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, knocked in 98 runs from the leadoff hole, played excellent D, established himself within the soul of the clubhouse, and was a post-season hero. And for his efforts, by the middle of the World Series, people finally stopped talking about his beard. For the moment anyway.
This beard, or perhaps more accurately the long locks, constitute the most valuable thicket of cillia this side of Sam Donaldson's toupee. It's well documented that the clean cut Damon was in the midst of a three-year dropoff in numbers that relegated him from elite leadoff hitter status to more of a Mike Cameron-meets-Rocco Baldelli type. Not exactly what the Duke had in mind when he signed Damon away from Oakland, at the cost of a draft pick and 4 years, $30 mil. But halfway through that contract, and with a divorce behind him, Damon suddenly reverted back to his wild youth, putting up identical numbers to his last two years in Kansas City, when he established his value as a rare, true leadoff guy. This was more grist for the insatiable Sox offensive machine, as Damon not only found himself picked up by the middle of the order when he got on, but also managed to knock in those 7-8-9 guys at a regular clip. What do Jeff Bagwell, JD Drew, Andruw Jones, Soriano, I-Rod, Palmeiro, Javy Lopez, Pat Burrell, Mike Lowell and Bret Boone all have in common? They all knocked in fewer runs than Damon, and exactly none of these all-star sluggers are leadoff hitters.
Damon's resurgence came at an ideal time, since the Sox were sure to suffer some letdown from their 1000-run pace of 2003, courtesy of several injuries. Damon was a new man, so if Bill Mueller couldn't duplicate his spectacular 2003, Damon's improvement in 2004 more than made up the slack. The question is, who gets the credit for the new Johnny? Ron Jackson? A calmer home life? The hair?! Who the hell knows? But the evidence shows this was not a new Johnny, just a return to the old one, so smart money is on something other than his stroke, he already had the stroke. Let's call it an attitude adjustment, and more of an off-the-field one at that? All I know is, he was an elite player throughout the year, and is named in People's top 50 Sexiest people to boot.
Damon is signed through only 2005, so once the current FA class gets sorted out, the Sox brass should turn their attention to Damon, rather than let him out on his walk year. Much as I love him (as a player), he's an enigma: with three mediocre years in the book, it's hard to say what he would command on the open market now. But if he repeats 2004 in 2005, he'll get a hefty, hefty raise. Damon is loved in the Fens these days the way Nomar was when people still respected him. The subject of Damon's contract could be a running theme next year, for good or ill, and make that ill if half the team has walked before spring training. The Temptation of Theo Epstein is not just a 2004 story... alas.
Anyway, Damon will be 31 this coming season, and there is little reason to doubt he has several fine years left in him, if healthy. With true leadoff guys being so scarce, and with the Sox' attention to on-base percentage (the primary attribute of a leadoff guy), look for Damon to get a lot of love from the Sox when his turn comes up.
[Incidentally, if you didn't appreciate how stacked the Sox' offense is, consider that Damon was tied for fourth (with Ortiz) among Sox regulars in on-base average. Manny leads all, followed by Varitek and Millar. Could Millar fill in at leadoff? Some day, just for a game, this has to happen.]
Sunday, November 28, 2004
Winning Time
Tough slog these days for a Patriots beat writer... what more is there to say? How many times can you write the following lead: "The New England Patriots showed once again why they are the toughest, smartest, classiest, most mature, best balanced team in the NFL yesterday..." Consider the following: Baltimore has the league's best defense, or at least that is the popular story line, and since they have allowed the fewest points, why argue? Baltimore always seems to act like they have a chip on their shoulder, which makes them dangerous, as well as insufferable. Baltimore had won its last three games, was 4-2 on the road this year, and crushed Pittsburgh way back in Week 2. And though they lurk just below the elite level, nothing would have raised the Ravens' profile more than a cherished victory over the Super Bowl Champs. And the Patriots destroyed them by three touchdowns. Unlike Baltimore, Indy and some or most of the other elite teams, the Patriots do not have a sound-bite identity, like the Ravens' defense or the Colts' offense. The Patriots can just about do it all, and seem to relish out-defending the Great Ravens' D or outscoring Indy or KC. Anything you can do, we can do better. About the only question unanswered thus far is whether the Patriots can outmuscle the Steelers. At the current pace, we should get that answer sometime this January.
My Keys for the Game:
* Pats' Offense -- No Mistakes
Actually, the real victory within the game was not the Pats' defense compared to Baltimore's, but the offense's ability to put up 17 points on the Ravens' D, despite their only attempting to score for three quarters and five seconds. Peyton Manning may get most of the attention by beating the snot out of mediocre opponents like Detroit, but for an offense to beat a serious NFL defense, perhaps the decisive factor is the ability to avoid mistakes.
* Hold the Rock
The teams with the fewest turnovers in the AFC are, in order, San Diego/Jets, Jax/Pittsburgh/Indy, Denver, Baltimore, KC, and the Pats/Houston/Buffalo. Worst is Miami, followed by Oakland, Cleveland, Cincy/Tennessee. Not an exact science, but clearly lots of turnovers is a good way to rack up the losses. Actually, the Pats are only +4 for the year, and have committed a middle-of-the-pack 17 turnovers. Still, yesterday was a day when they needed to hang onto the ball, and they did. Baltimore doesn't run its offense the length of the field too often, so if you don't give them short fields with turnovers, they already have a foot in the grave.
* Keepaway
The other key was the Pats' ability to keep Baltimore's offense off the field, and its D on it. Not turning it over helps, but so too does a New England defensive effort that allowed only eight first downs and sent the Ravens three-and-out on seven of their first 11 possessions. After being held in check, the Pats scored on their first three possessions of the second half. They then got the decisive defensive touchdown and essentially sat on the ball for the sure win. Time of possession was 36-24, New England. In other words, Ray Lewis and co. couldn't get off the field, and eventually the Pats' O broke them. And the offense has its own great defense to thank. Of course, the defense had the luxury of playing Baltimore's offense...
Random thoughts...
* One disturbing trend: by my calculation, David Givens had six catches and only three first downs. Last week he had one measly catch for three useless yards. That makes his season total 44 receptions, 39 first downs. Chalk it up to the Deion Branch effect?
* Streaks: Pats set NFL-record 16 straight games scoring first; Dillon chalks up his fifth 100+ game in six tries; Vinatieri makes his 21st straight field goal. Vinatieri may be the most improved individual, indicating that whatever was bothering him last year has cleared up.
* Subject for a mid-week column: is parity in the turbulent times of NFL free agency nonetheless on the wane?
* Sox news: Pedro continues to court other teams, and he may even hook a fish this time with the Mets, baseball's easiest mark. How a team can sign Mo Vaughn, Kaz Matsui, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron, and dump a brilliant young lefty for Victor Zambrano, and not revisit its ways, is mind-boggling. But if you think Boston had a Yankee complex (before this year), check the Mets. Anyway, I think Pedro is the best free agent pitcher, one click above Pavano, but the baggage is starting to pile up, and I'm openly wondering whether that $25 mil they dangled can be better spent elsewhere. The Mets are a convenient dumping ground from our persepctive, being irrelevant and in a different league. Happy hunting, Petey.
* And now a sport rarely discussed around here. The ultimate sport: predator versus prey. Today I spotted a large bald eagle perched on a larch tree about 10 blocks from my home. The eagle swooped in around dusk and landed in a spot that gave it a clear view of the bunny park, a swatch of grass and hill and bushes by the recreational Mecca of Green Lake, that in recent times has been overrun by feral rabbits. The rabbits are a local attraction, despite being, well, feral. They socialize reluctantly, aggressively pursue handouts, and chase each other around all day, with only slightly more caution in broad daylight. I knew about the rabbits before we moved to Seattle, but began noticing them in the spring, when their population began doubling about every three weeks, to the point where it looked like you could cross the field on their backs, like Bond escaping the crocodiles in Live and Let Die. But before the bunnies can overrun humanity and force us to hail our rabbit overlords, nature is coming around to the issue, reestablishing the balance. Really, it was only a matter of time before the bald eagles, one of nature's more ruthless and less picky predators, came around. Since people don't actually shoot fish in a barrel (as far as I know), the eagles' potential run on this fat, frolicking overpopulation of bunnies could arguably go down as the food chain's biggest mismatch. As I recall, eagles hunt in a relatively solitary fashion, so it may take time for word to get around about the fabulous new protein source in North Seattle. But it will. I'll get pictures if possible.
Tough slog these days for a Patriots beat writer... what more is there to say? How many times can you write the following lead: "The New England Patriots showed once again why they are the toughest, smartest, classiest, most mature, best balanced team in the NFL yesterday..." Consider the following: Baltimore has the league's best defense, or at least that is the popular story line, and since they have allowed the fewest points, why argue? Baltimore always seems to act like they have a chip on their shoulder, which makes them dangerous, as well as insufferable. Baltimore had won its last three games, was 4-2 on the road this year, and crushed Pittsburgh way back in Week 2. And though they lurk just below the elite level, nothing would have raised the Ravens' profile more than a cherished victory over the Super Bowl Champs. And the Patriots destroyed them by three touchdowns. Unlike Baltimore, Indy and some or most of the other elite teams, the Patriots do not have a sound-bite identity, like the Ravens' defense or the Colts' offense. The Patriots can just about do it all, and seem to relish out-defending the Great Ravens' D or outscoring Indy or KC. Anything you can do, we can do better. About the only question unanswered thus far is whether the Patriots can outmuscle the Steelers. At the current pace, we should get that answer sometime this January.
My Keys for the Game:
* Pats' Offense -- No Mistakes
Actually, the real victory within the game was not the Pats' defense compared to Baltimore's, but the offense's ability to put up 17 points on the Ravens' D, despite their only attempting to score for three quarters and five seconds. Peyton Manning may get most of the attention by beating the snot out of mediocre opponents like Detroit, but for an offense to beat a serious NFL defense, perhaps the decisive factor is the ability to avoid mistakes.
* Hold the Rock
The teams with the fewest turnovers in the AFC are, in order, San Diego/Jets, Jax/Pittsburgh/Indy, Denver, Baltimore, KC, and the Pats/Houston/Buffalo. Worst is Miami, followed by Oakland, Cleveland, Cincy/Tennessee. Not an exact science, but clearly lots of turnovers is a good way to rack up the losses. Actually, the Pats are only +4 for the year, and have committed a middle-of-the-pack 17 turnovers. Still, yesterday was a day when they needed to hang onto the ball, and they did. Baltimore doesn't run its offense the length of the field too often, so if you don't give them short fields with turnovers, they already have a foot in the grave.
* Keepaway
The other key was the Pats' ability to keep Baltimore's offense off the field, and its D on it. Not turning it over helps, but so too does a New England defensive effort that allowed only eight first downs and sent the Ravens three-and-out on seven of their first 11 possessions. After being held in check, the Pats scored on their first three possessions of the second half. They then got the decisive defensive touchdown and essentially sat on the ball for the sure win. Time of possession was 36-24, New England. In other words, Ray Lewis and co. couldn't get off the field, and eventually the Pats' O broke them. And the offense has its own great defense to thank. Of course, the defense had the luxury of playing Baltimore's offense...
Random thoughts...
* One disturbing trend: by my calculation, David Givens had six catches and only three first downs. Last week he had one measly catch for three useless yards. That makes his season total 44 receptions, 39 first downs. Chalk it up to the Deion Branch effect?
* Streaks: Pats set NFL-record 16 straight games scoring first; Dillon chalks up his fifth 100+ game in six tries; Vinatieri makes his 21st straight field goal. Vinatieri may be the most improved individual, indicating that whatever was bothering him last year has cleared up.
* Subject for a mid-week column: is parity in the turbulent times of NFL free agency nonetheless on the wane?
* Sox news: Pedro continues to court other teams, and he may even hook a fish this time with the Mets, baseball's easiest mark. How a team can sign Mo Vaughn, Kaz Matsui, Cliff Floyd, Mike Cameron, and dump a brilliant young lefty for Victor Zambrano, and not revisit its ways, is mind-boggling. But if you think Boston had a Yankee complex (before this year), check the Mets. Anyway, I think Pedro is the best free agent pitcher, one click above Pavano, but the baggage is starting to pile up, and I'm openly wondering whether that $25 mil they dangled can be better spent elsewhere. The Mets are a convenient dumping ground from our persepctive, being irrelevant and in a different league. Happy hunting, Petey.
* And now a sport rarely discussed around here. The ultimate sport: predator versus prey. Today I spotted a large bald eagle perched on a larch tree about 10 blocks from my home. The eagle swooped in around dusk and landed in a spot that gave it a clear view of the bunny park, a swatch of grass and hill and bushes by the recreational Mecca of Green Lake, that in recent times has been overrun by feral rabbits. The rabbits are a local attraction, despite being, well, feral. They socialize reluctantly, aggressively pursue handouts, and chase each other around all day, with only slightly more caution in broad daylight. I knew about the rabbits before we moved to Seattle, but began noticing them in the spring, when their population began doubling about every three weeks, to the point where it looked like you could cross the field on their backs, like Bond escaping the crocodiles in Live and Let Die. But before the bunnies can overrun humanity and force us to hail our rabbit overlords, nature is coming around to the issue, reestablishing the balance. Really, it was only a matter of time before the bald eagles, one of nature's more ruthless and less picky predators, came around. Since people don't actually shoot fish in a barrel (as far as I know), the eagles' potential run on this fat, frolicking overpopulation of bunnies could arguably go down as the food chain's biggest mismatch. As I recall, eagles hunt in a relatively solitary fashion, so it may take time for word to get around about the fabulous new protein source in North Seattle. But it will. I'll get pictures if possible.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Left Field
Continuing with the series where I look back on 2004 and briefly forward too, position-by-position...
This should be a short post. Manny Ramirez is a freakin metronome. Sure, his numbers vary a few degrees every year, but not in any way that suggests he has changed as a hitter. For every stat that went down a bit, there's another that went up slightly. And his OPS is pretty much rock solid. There are no discernible trends in his performance at the plate. To wit:
* His OPS this year was 1.009, down from last year's 1.014, and down significantly from his career OPS of 1.010. Hey, a thousandth of an OPS point is no laughing matter.
* It was a great year for homers (43) and RBIs (130), both highs in Red Stockings; third-best for his career in HRs (best: 45) and RBIs (165). His 44 doubles was one off his career high. 346 total bases is his best ever. Needless to say, his slugging was up, to a celestial .613, 14 points over his average.
* Not a great year for small-ball: his average slipped to .308 after two years of chasing (and once winning) the batting crown; just off from his career of .316. His OB% was down under .400 for the first time in seven years, to .397 (career: .411), while his walks dipped to 82, about his career average per season. Not his best, but still, if he weren't slamming balls off the Coke bottle he'd make a fine leadoff hitter.
* Strikeouts were up to 124, increasing for the second year in a row but more like his career average and well below his worst figure (147).
All these numbers tell a slight story: Manny spent more time going deep than setting the table. Maybe it was Ortiz kidding him about winning batting titles, like some puny singles hitter. My theory, however, is that for the first time in years, the Sox had their BEST on-base guys in front of him, unlike last year when Damon and Walker were the worst on base guys in the regular lineup. So he spent more time swinging like there were ducks on the pond. Otherwise, he was exactly the same.
Interestingly, Manny's career averages are a bit more useful than most hitters' are. Usually a player's numbers will include his ramp-up and decline phases, so his peaks and his averages will differ by some measurable amount. Take Jason Varitek (catchers are the slowest-developing hitters): he had about 4-5 years of OPS's in the .700-.800 range, before last year's .863 and this year's .872. Trot Nixon was hovering around .850 for four seasons before putting up a .975 last season. Normal players, even the good ones, take time to hone their craft.
Not Manny: after 340 major league at-bats, his apprenticeship was over. In 1995, his first full season after parts of two years, he rang up a .960 OPS, hitting .308 with 31 homers, 107 RBIs and a .402 on-base average. Other than adding some muscle and thus increasing his slugging by 50 points, his next 5200 at-bats have all been about the same. If he were to get struck by lightning before next year, Manny would still be a first-ballot hall-of-famer.
While we're at it, he has generally worked hard to improve his fielding, though the evidence both for and against that point is anecdotal; I personally will give him credit, if only because of his catch in the stands at Yankee Stadium in September. And he became a fan favorite and model teammate, modest amount of goofiness aside. [Check out his homepage.] He is who he is, which means you have to accept less than angelic footwork in left and on the bases, if you want to get the benefit of his god-like swing.
Barring that, or some other mishap, this is our left fielder for the next two-to-four years, at least. Enjoy.
[Oh, in case you were wondering, here are his AL ranks this year: avg (13th), hits (16th), runs (10th), doubles (5th), HRs (1st), RBIs (3rd), total bases (4th), walks (8th), slugging (1st), on-base (7th), OPS (1st). I have to stop now, I'm getting verklempt.]
Continuing with the series where I look back on 2004 and briefly forward too, position-by-position...
This should be a short post. Manny Ramirez is a freakin metronome. Sure, his numbers vary a few degrees every year, but not in any way that suggests he has changed as a hitter. For every stat that went down a bit, there's another that went up slightly. And his OPS is pretty much rock solid. There are no discernible trends in his performance at the plate. To wit:
* His OPS this year was 1.009, down from last year's 1.014, and down significantly from his career OPS of 1.010. Hey, a thousandth of an OPS point is no laughing matter.
* It was a great year for homers (43) and RBIs (130), both highs in Red Stockings; third-best for his career in HRs (best: 45) and RBIs (165). His 44 doubles was one off his career high. 346 total bases is his best ever. Needless to say, his slugging was up, to a celestial .613, 14 points over his average.
* Not a great year for small-ball: his average slipped to .308 after two years of chasing (and once winning) the batting crown; just off from his career of .316. His OB% was down under .400 for the first time in seven years, to .397 (career: .411), while his walks dipped to 82, about his career average per season. Not his best, but still, if he weren't slamming balls off the Coke bottle he'd make a fine leadoff hitter.
* Strikeouts were up to 124, increasing for the second year in a row but more like his career average and well below his worst figure (147).
All these numbers tell a slight story: Manny spent more time going deep than setting the table. Maybe it was Ortiz kidding him about winning batting titles, like some puny singles hitter. My theory, however, is that for the first time in years, the Sox had their BEST on-base guys in front of him, unlike last year when Damon and Walker were the worst on base guys in the regular lineup. So he spent more time swinging like there were ducks on the pond. Otherwise, he was exactly the same.
Interestingly, Manny's career averages are a bit more useful than most hitters' are. Usually a player's numbers will include his ramp-up and decline phases, so his peaks and his averages will differ by some measurable amount. Take Jason Varitek (catchers are the slowest-developing hitters): he had about 4-5 years of OPS's in the .700-.800 range, before last year's .863 and this year's .872. Trot Nixon was hovering around .850 for four seasons before putting up a .975 last season. Normal players, even the good ones, take time to hone their craft.
Not Manny: after 340 major league at-bats, his apprenticeship was over. In 1995, his first full season after parts of two years, he rang up a .960 OPS, hitting .308 with 31 homers, 107 RBIs and a .402 on-base average. Other than adding some muscle and thus increasing his slugging by 50 points, his next 5200 at-bats have all been about the same. If he were to get struck by lightning before next year, Manny would still be a first-ballot hall-of-famer.
While we're at it, he has generally worked hard to improve his fielding, though the evidence both for and against that point is anecdotal; I personally will give him credit, if only because of his catch in the stands at Yankee Stadium in September. And he became a fan favorite and model teammate, modest amount of goofiness aside. [Check out his homepage.] He is who he is, which means you have to accept less than angelic footwork in left and on the bases, if you want to get the benefit of his god-like swing.
Barring that, or some other mishap, this is our left fielder for the next two-to-four years, at least. Enjoy.
[Oh, in case you were wondering, here are his AL ranks this year: avg (13th), hits (16th), runs (10th), doubles (5th), HRs (1st), RBIs (3rd), total bases (4th), walks (8th), slugging (1st), on-base (7th), OPS (1st). I have to stop now, I'm getting verklempt.]
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Waiting for Pedro
Theories are swirling in the wind concerning the significance of Pedro's meeting with Steinbrenner Tuesday, and it's hard to know exactly what sort of poker is being played until it plays itself out. For every scenario where Pedro sincerely wants to be a Yankee and Steinbrenner seriously wants him there, there are at least two scenarios that make it look like a set up or bluff.
This much we do know: the Sox made an offer to Pedro of some 2-3 years and $25-38 million, depending on that third year option. The immediate reaction of the cognoscenti was that the offer was above market for a pitcher whose future is far less certain than his brilliant past, and whose behavior has scared off a GM or two of late. We also know that the Sox have a fairly public and steadfast policy against long term contracts and no-trade clauses; at least, the Henry-Lucchino-Epstein Sox do. This last bit speaks volumes -- the Red Sox will not (apparently) peddle next year's flexibility for this year's free agent beauty queen. They will spend for value (Foulke, Schilling) but they are determined not to overspend if possible, even for mega-stars. They may have the second-highest budget in the league (for now), but the word is that the budget has clear limits which Theo cannot exceed. So flexibility is an important issue.
[You may be thinking, so why were they trying to trade for A-Roid last year? The genesis of that deal was the chance to get out from under Manny's deal. Remember, back then, 11 months and one World Series MVP ago, that Manny contract looked like one big shackle. Even now that Manny is a new guy, not to mention a hero, I'm not sure they appreciate having that long-term commitment of huge dollars on their books, although they like Manny enough to spend their energies managing the rest of the budget and leaving Manny where he is.]
In this context, then, the offer to Pedro makes some sense, being hard-headed in terms of length, though with a whiff of sentimentality in the dollar amounts. My guess is, this is about the Sox' best offer, and they have told Pedro to see if he can get anyone to match or exceed it, betting he won't. If he does find another suitor, that opens up a number of options: not only does his $17 million come off this year's books, but it clears another $12.5 mil earmarked for Pedro in next year's budget, money that can go a long way in the contracting free agent market. More logic: it stands to reason that the Sox' offer is a take it or leave it deal. They need to know where they stand with Pedro as soon as humanly possible, before the Pavanos and Radkes start slipping away. Anyway, there is no telling what Pedro will do, but if he decides in the next week or two, the Sox will be fine either way. And if he dithers too long, I bet they'll pull the offer and give the money to one of the targeted replacements.
If Pedro says yes to the Sox, is that a good thing? It's really hard to say. Martinez could still have a lot of brilliance left in that arm; look no further than his last outing for evidence. The question is whether he will learn how to coax it out more efficiently than he did this year. Pedro can still Pitch, of course, once he establishes his command -- which lately has taken at least a couple innings most nights. Is he struggling with this lesson? Does he need to go to a different pitching coach to get the message? Or is his transition to a Pitcher still progressing right on schedule with Wallace and the Sox? More performances like this year, and it's a mediocre deal. You can get more innings at a lower ERA for less money than that. The upside is that Pedro is worth the deal offered by the Sox, with a slight chance that he could out-perform even this weighty offer. Remember, he struck out 227 batters in 217 innings this year. In 220 innings, Pavano fanned 139. So who was more dominant? Ah, but that was then, and next year Pedro could also be struggling even longer with command, or hurt, or even more eccentric. The blowup factor is still small, but not as small as the odds that he'll exceed expectations.
One final morsel: one year from today Tim Hudson will be a free agent.
Theories are swirling in the wind concerning the significance of Pedro's meeting with Steinbrenner Tuesday, and it's hard to know exactly what sort of poker is being played until it plays itself out. For every scenario where Pedro sincerely wants to be a Yankee and Steinbrenner seriously wants him there, there are at least two scenarios that make it look like a set up or bluff.
This much we do know: the Sox made an offer to Pedro of some 2-3 years and $25-38 million, depending on that third year option. The immediate reaction of the cognoscenti was that the offer was above market for a pitcher whose future is far less certain than his brilliant past, and whose behavior has scared off a GM or two of late. We also know that the Sox have a fairly public and steadfast policy against long term contracts and no-trade clauses; at least, the Henry-Lucchino-Epstein Sox do. This last bit speaks volumes -- the Red Sox will not (apparently) peddle next year's flexibility for this year's free agent beauty queen. They will spend for value (Foulke, Schilling) but they are determined not to overspend if possible, even for mega-stars. They may have the second-highest budget in the league (for now), but the word is that the budget has clear limits which Theo cannot exceed. So flexibility is an important issue.
[You may be thinking, so why were they trying to trade for A-Roid last year? The genesis of that deal was the chance to get out from under Manny's deal. Remember, back then, 11 months and one World Series MVP ago, that Manny contract looked like one big shackle. Even now that Manny is a new guy, not to mention a hero, I'm not sure they appreciate having that long-term commitment of huge dollars on their books, although they like Manny enough to spend their energies managing the rest of the budget and leaving Manny where he is.]
In this context, then, the offer to Pedro makes some sense, being hard-headed in terms of length, though with a whiff of sentimentality in the dollar amounts. My guess is, this is about the Sox' best offer, and they have told Pedro to see if he can get anyone to match or exceed it, betting he won't. If he does find another suitor, that opens up a number of options: not only does his $17 million come off this year's books, but it clears another $12.5 mil earmarked for Pedro in next year's budget, money that can go a long way in the contracting free agent market. More logic: it stands to reason that the Sox' offer is a take it or leave it deal. They need to know where they stand with Pedro as soon as humanly possible, before the Pavanos and Radkes start slipping away. Anyway, there is no telling what Pedro will do, but if he decides in the next week or two, the Sox will be fine either way. And if he dithers too long, I bet they'll pull the offer and give the money to one of the targeted replacements.
If Pedro says yes to the Sox, is that a good thing? It's really hard to say. Martinez could still have a lot of brilliance left in that arm; look no further than his last outing for evidence. The question is whether he will learn how to coax it out more efficiently than he did this year. Pedro can still Pitch, of course, once he establishes his command -- which lately has taken at least a couple innings most nights. Is he struggling with this lesson? Does he need to go to a different pitching coach to get the message? Or is his transition to a Pitcher still progressing right on schedule with Wallace and the Sox? More performances like this year, and it's a mediocre deal. You can get more innings at a lower ERA for less money than that. The upside is that Pedro is worth the deal offered by the Sox, with a slight chance that he could out-perform even this weighty offer. Remember, he struck out 227 batters in 217 innings this year. In 220 innings, Pavano fanned 139. So who was more dominant? Ah, but that was then, and next year Pedro could also be struggling even longer with command, or hurt, or even more eccentric. The blowup factor is still small, but not as small as the odds that he'll exceed expectations.
One final morsel: one year from today Tim Hudson will be a free agent.
Sunday, November 14, 2004
NFL Power Rankings: Bloggie Style
In mid-December of last year, bemused by the overblown BCS "controversy" and irritated as usual by the failure of the pro game to rank its teams in any meaningful manner, I invented a power ranking formula mimicking the BCS. That poll ranked the Patriots several miles beyond the league's second-best team, thereby proving its accuracy and stamping the endeavor a complete success. Well, the baseball hot stove is still warming itself up, and the NFL has turned the corner on its season, taking on the feel of an NBA game about to enter the final five minutes. In other words, it's time to start paying attention. So, I bring you the season's first NFLCS Power Poll.
The formula, you may recall, consisted of the following:
ESPN Power Ranking + losses + schedule strength factor - quality wins
The point was to factor in the punditry via the ESPN poll, like the BCS faithfully does, while otherwise ranking the teams on their record, the level of effort requried to achieve that record, and with special chits for big wins. FYI, quality wins were any win over a team with a significant winning record, which for now I'll call 6-3 or better. You don't get a quality win for beating the Giants. For the most part, a team is what its record says, but records are relative to opponents, and the chattering class's opinion tends to underscore this point.
Also, a note about schedule strength: I copied last year's formula, ranking teams 1-32 based on number of games played so far this season against winning teams, and multiplying by 0.4 -- the random multiplier used by the BCS. The toughest schedules, belonging to the Panthers, Bills and Browns, included six winning teams in nine games, with the weakest -- Denver and the Jets -- playing only two winning teams. Also, this ranking will need updating in two days, with a current ESPN poll, and the results of the Eagles-Cowboys game, which we'll assume is a Philly win for now. The results:
Contenders: [Rnk + Loss + Schd - QW = Total]
1) New England: 2+1+3-2= 4
2) Philadelphia: 3+1+4-1= 7
3) San Diego: 4+3+3-1= 10
4) Pittsburgh: 1+1+10.8-2= 10.8
5) Indianapolis: 5+3+3-0= 12
6t) Minnesota: 9+4+3-0= 16
6t) Jacksonville: 12+3+3-2= 16
8) Atlanta: 6+2+10.8-2= 16.8
9) Denver: 7+3+12.4-1= 21.4
10) Baltimore: 10+3+10.8-2= 21.8
Pretenders:
11. Jets, 22.4; 12t. Houston/Kansas City, 23; 14. St. Louis, 24; 15t. Cleveland/Seattle, 25.8; 17. Buffalo, 26.8; 18. Detroit, 27; 19. Green Bay, 27.8; 20. Giants, 28.8.
A few observations:
* Miami did indeed finish last, Edging the Niners purely on the ESPN poll.
* Did Pittsburgh get jobbed? I will concede that the schedule strength multiplier is random, and we could produce different results by tweaking it some. Namely, adjusting this factor could conceivably pull the Steelers up to second. Posibly -- but not likely -- ahead of the Pats. In nine games, the Steelers have played three winning teams -- its two notorious wins at home over the Pats and Eagles, and a loss to the Ravens. Is it their fault for loading up on creampuffs? No, but the Patriots have had five winning opponents in that span, beating all but the Steelers. Over time, the schedule strength factor should be significant, but at Week 10 arguably it should be toned down some. Maybe I'll try an adjusted version later this week.
* More on the Steelers: plenty of people would point out the Steelers' win over the Pats and their last three weeks in general to say they are the better team right now. Debatable, IMHO, but in any event this poll can't say who the best team is on November 15, 2004 at 1pm Eastern Time. It says who's had the best season so far. So while the Steelers get kudos for beating the Pats head to head, they get dinged for getting crushed by Baltimore in Week 2, and for sqeaking past the Raiders in Week 1 while the Pats were fending off the Colts, or brushing past Dallas while the Pats slew the Seahawks. The Steelers have had two big weeks and one crap one, while the Pats have had four (and one). All else being equal, the Pats get the nod.
* The AFC is vastly stronger than the NFC. Ten of the top 13 are AFC. Of the league's 22 quality wins, only four were achieved by NFC teams. Of course, it's tough to achieve quality wins whe only two NFC teams -- Philly and Atlanta -- count as potential quality win opponents, versus 8 for the AFC.
* Kansas City leads the league with three quality wins. And their overall record is 3-6. Which means that somewhere out there are three Quality teams who don't have enough defense.
In mid-December of last year, bemused by the overblown BCS "controversy" and irritated as usual by the failure of the pro game to rank its teams in any meaningful manner, I invented a power ranking formula mimicking the BCS. That poll ranked the Patriots several miles beyond the league's second-best team, thereby proving its accuracy and stamping the endeavor a complete success. Well, the baseball hot stove is still warming itself up, and the NFL has turned the corner on its season, taking on the feel of an NBA game about to enter the final five minutes. In other words, it's time to start paying attention. So, I bring you the season's first NFLCS Power Poll.
The formula, you may recall, consisted of the following:
ESPN Power Ranking + losses + schedule strength factor - quality wins
The point was to factor in the punditry via the ESPN poll, like the BCS faithfully does, while otherwise ranking the teams on their record, the level of effort requried to achieve that record, and with special chits for big wins. FYI, quality wins were any win over a team with a significant winning record, which for now I'll call 6-3 or better. You don't get a quality win for beating the Giants. For the most part, a team is what its record says, but records are relative to opponents, and the chattering class's opinion tends to underscore this point.
Also, a note about schedule strength: I copied last year's formula, ranking teams 1-32 based on number of games played so far this season against winning teams, and multiplying by 0.4 -- the random multiplier used by the BCS. The toughest schedules, belonging to the Panthers, Bills and Browns, included six winning teams in nine games, with the weakest -- Denver and the Jets -- playing only two winning teams. Also, this ranking will need updating in two days, with a current ESPN poll, and the results of the Eagles-Cowboys game, which we'll assume is a Philly win for now. The results:
Contenders: [Rnk + Loss + Schd - QW = Total]
1) New England: 2+1+3-2= 4
2) Philadelphia: 3+1+4-1= 7
3) San Diego: 4+3+3-1= 10
4) Pittsburgh: 1+1+10.8-2= 10.8
5) Indianapolis: 5+3+3-0= 12
6t) Minnesota: 9+4+3-0= 16
6t) Jacksonville: 12+3+3-2= 16
8) Atlanta: 6+2+10.8-2= 16.8
9) Denver: 7+3+12.4-1= 21.4
10) Baltimore: 10+3+10.8-2= 21.8
Pretenders:
11. Jets, 22.4; 12t. Houston/Kansas City, 23; 14. St. Louis, 24; 15t. Cleveland/Seattle, 25.8; 17. Buffalo, 26.8; 18. Detroit, 27; 19. Green Bay, 27.8; 20. Giants, 28.8.
A few observations:
* Miami did indeed finish last, Edging the Niners purely on the ESPN poll.
* Did Pittsburgh get jobbed? I will concede that the schedule strength multiplier is random, and we could produce different results by tweaking it some. Namely, adjusting this factor could conceivably pull the Steelers up to second. Posibly -- but not likely -- ahead of the Pats. In nine games, the Steelers have played three winning teams -- its two notorious wins at home over the Pats and Eagles, and a loss to the Ravens. Is it their fault for loading up on creampuffs? No, but the Patriots have had five winning opponents in that span, beating all but the Steelers. Over time, the schedule strength factor should be significant, but at Week 10 arguably it should be toned down some. Maybe I'll try an adjusted version later this week.
* More on the Steelers: plenty of people would point out the Steelers' win over the Pats and their last three weeks in general to say they are the better team right now. Debatable, IMHO, but in any event this poll can't say who the best team is on November 15, 2004 at 1pm Eastern Time. It says who's had the best season so far. So while the Steelers get kudos for beating the Pats head to head, they get dinged for getting crushed by Baltimore in Week 2, and for sqeaking past the Raiders in Week 1 while the Pats were fending off the Colts, or brushing past Dallas while the Pats slew the Seahawks. The Steelers have had two big weeks and one crap one, while the Pats have had four (and one). All else being equal, the Pats get the nod.
* The AFC is vastly stronger than the NFC. Ten of the top 13 are AFC. Of the league's 22 quality wins, only four were achieved by NFC teams. Of course, it's tough to achieve quality wins whe only two NFC teams -- Philly and Atlanta -- count as potential quality win opponents, versus 8 for the AFC.
* Kansas City leads the league with three quality wins. And their overall record is 3-6. Which means that somewhere out there are three Quality teams who don't have enough defense.
Pat on the Back
Everywhere you look on this Patriot team you see players with bizarre, telling statistics to their credit. Whether it's defensive players making receptions, kickers throwing receptions, or wide receivers making interceptions,... well, you just never know what you'll see next with this team. But my favorite statistic, by far, belongs to David Givens: For the season, Givens has 37 receptions. And 36 first downs. Unfortunately I can't find a site that offers sortable statistics which include first down percentage. Only the NFL.com site offers first down percentage at all, and only with some sniffing around. But I did a casual search of random top WRs, in terms of yards, receptions, and average per catch, and nobody seems to have a first-down rate of more than 65% or 70%. Givens' streak, naturally, was broken in Pittsburgh.
Everywhere you look on this Patriot team you see players with bizarre, telling statistics to their credit. Whether it's defensive players making receptions, kickers throwing receptions, or wide receivers making interceptions,... well, you just never know what you'll see next with this team. But my favorite statistic, by far, belongs to David Givens: For the season, Givens has 37 receptions. And 36 first downs. Unfortunately I can't find a site that offers sortable statistics which include first down percentage. Only the NFL.com site offers first down percentage at all, and only with some sniffing around. But I did a casual search of random top WRs, in terms of yards, receptions, and average per catch, and nobody seems to have a first-down rate of more than 65% or 70%. Givens' streak, naturally, was broken in Pittsburgh.
Friday, November 12, 2004
Shortstop
Indeed. A short stop. Or so we are led to believe it will be for Orlando Cabrera. I, for one, will slit my wrists if it is. But before we get overly dramatic, let's look back on the season at the 6-hole.
Nomar Garciaparra, upon being traded to the Cubs, was hailed as the latest and perhaps greatest Sox legend to be run out of town by ownership, money, or some other form of (take your pick) avarice, weakness or stupidity. That was on August 1. Four weeks and 22 wins later, he was more likely to be recognized as the embodiment of the curse that has hindered this franchise since the reign of King Arthur. We may not be able to read all of the mystical forces accurately, but this much can be said: the Sox were a moribund, underachieving lot before his trade, and a .740 team that immediately won the World Series upon his departure. In fairness to Nomar, he was a whiny pain in the ass who made too many errors when he got to the ball, which seemed like never. So it's possible there is a relationship between the team's success and his disappearing act.
Of course, we'd be remiss in not recognizing who assumed this position and all he contributed. But for his contract running out two months after he landed, Orlando Cabrera could have gone down as one of Theo's all-time great acquisitions. And perhaps he still will. When he arrived, he was lugging a bat that had rung up a lot of outs in his waning days with the flat-lining Expos. His stats yo-yo'ed so violently that you never knew if you were getting the Holy Trinity or Jose Oquendo. His last four slugging totals in Montreal were .428, .380, .460, .336. That's when Theo bought him, low.
Of course, no matter which incarnation Cabrera assumed at the plate, his acrobatic and efficient fielding at the most important position in the field of play (non-catchers) made him a serious asset. But in his short time at the Fens, after a brief adjustment to the curveball-changeup-slider league, he made contact with his Inner Slugger, ringing up almost as many total bases in his two months in Boston as he registered in four months with the 'Spos. Though not a patient, on-base type, he is both tough to walk and to strike out, the kind of guy who, if you can't blow him away, he will probably foul off seven two-strike pitches before hitting something hard somewhere. He hit .288 for the postseason, got on at a .370 rate, and knocked in 11 runs in 14 games. This was the real Orlando Cabrera.
And now, he's free to sign with any of the 78 major league teams. Supposedly the Red Sox' dilemma is that Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia are both waiting in the wings for their shot, a couple years down the line. [And the Sox have a few other decisions to make, I am told.] So, they aren't wild about a long-term deal or a big upgrade from Cabrera's current $6 mil salary. I can't sort out team economics, other than to hazard a guess that as long as they win the world series, they should continue as a going concern. But as for on the field, there is a TON to like about Cabrera. First, his teammates seemed to adopt him immediately, pushing the bounds of what you're supposed to say about a former teammate with statements like "We needed the defensive upgrade he gives us," and "Cabrera is an ideal teammate," and "We weren't going anywhere with that whiny pussy Nomar around."
Second, the guy is a line-drive machine who makes tons of contact, almost all of it to left. It's clear from his stats that he only needed about two weeks to get a feel for the AL. On August 14 he was hitting .167 with the Sox; twelve games later it was .280, and from there he never looked back, hitting .310 in September and October. Fenway and the Sox' balanced/loaded lineup is a dream for him, and his fielding is a dream for the Sox.
The only knock on signing him, which the Sox supposedly (if you can believe the papers) want to do but for two years, is that the organization wants him to warm up the position for one of the two minor league phenoms. Not only are minor leaguers notoriously hard to gauge, but even if the Sox gave Cabrera three or four years, it's hard to see what the danger would be. That Ramirez wouldn't take over full time until he's 24, instead of at 23? That Pedroia would have to learn second base, just in case? The GM's dream is likely that they get two years of brilliance from Cabrera, then replace him with a rookie who immediately fills his shoes, rather than having the rookie watch and learn from the bench for a while. You want a guy to hit free agency after you've gotten something from him, not when he's just about to blossom. But Cabrera is here and now, and if there is a year or two when he's being pushed from below, I am sure an amicable solution can be reached for all parties.
Anyway, enough of that. Nobody can say anything at all about what free agents are going where, primarily because the players themselves don't have any clue. It's early. Plan B is that we bridge the Cabrera and Ramirez eras with the decline phase of Omar Vizquel. I for one don't care to waste the Schilling-Manny-Pedro-Varitek era patching holes and waiting for 2007 to arrive. Sign the dude.
Indeed. A short stop. Or so we are led to believe it will be for Orlando Cabrera. I, for one, will slit my wrists if it is. But before we get overly dramatic, let's look back on the season at the 6-hole.
Nomar Garciaparra, upon being traded to the Cubs, was hailed as the latest and perhaps greatest Sox legend to be run out of town by ownership, money, or some other form of (take your pick) avarice, weakness or stupidity. That was on August 1. Four weeks and 22 wins later, he was more likely to be recognized as the embodiment of the curse that has hindered this franchise since the reign of King Arthur. We may not be able to read all of the mystical forces accurately, but this much can be said: the Sox were a moribund, underachieving lot before his trade, and a .740 team that immediately won the World Series upon his departure. In fairness to Nomar, he was a whiny pain in the ass who made too many errors when he got to the ball, which seemed like never. So it's possible there is a relationship between the team's success and his disappearing act.
Of course, we'd be remiss in not recognizing who assumed this position and all he contributed. But for his contract running out two months after he landed, Orlando Cabrera could have gone down as one of Theo's all-time great acquisitions. And perhaps he still will. When he arrived, he was lugging a bat that had rung up a lot of outs in his waning days with the flat-lining Expos. His stats yo-yo'ed so violently that you never knew if you were getting the Holy Trinity or Jose Oquendo. His last four slugging totals in Montreal were .428, .380, .460, .336. That's when Theo bought him, low.
Of course, no matter which incarnation Cabrera assumed at the plate, his acrobatic and efficient fielding at the most important position in the field of play (non-catchers) made him a serious asset. But in his short time at the Fens, after a brief adjustment to the curveball-changeup-slider league, he made contact with his Inner Slugger, ringing up almost as many total bases in his two months in Boston as he registered in four months with the 'Spos. Though not a patient, on-base type, he is both tough to walk and to strike out, the kind of guy who, if you can't blow him away, he will probably foul off seven two-strike pitches before hitting something hard somewhere. He hit .288 for the postseason, got on at a .370 rate, and knocked in 11 runs in 14 games. This was the real Orlando Cabrera.
And now, he's free to sign with any of the 78 major league teams. Supposedly the Red Sox' dilemma is that Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia are both waiting in the wings for their shot, a couple years down the line. [And the Sox have a few other decisions to make, I am told.] So, they aren't wild about a long-term deal or a big upgrade from Cabrera's current $6 mil salary. I can't sort out team economics, other than to hazard a guess that as long as they win the world series, they should continue as a going concern. But as for on the field, there is a TON to like about Cabrera. First, his teammates seemed to adopt him immediately, pushing the bounds of what you're supposed to say about a former teammate with statements like "We needed the defensive upgrade he gives us," and "Cabrera is an ideal teammate," and "We weren't going anywhere with that whiny pussy Nomar around."
Second, the guy is a line-drive machine who makes tons of contact, almost all of it to left. It's clear from his stats that he only needed about two weeks to get a feel for the AL. On August 14 he was hitting .167 with the Sox; twelve games later it was .280, and from there he never looked back, hitting .310 in September and October. Fenway and the Sox' balanced/loaded lineup is a dream for him, and his fielding is a dream for the Sox.
The only knock on signing him, which the Sox supposedly (if you can believe the papers) want to do but for two years, is that the organization wants him to warm up the position for one of the two minor league phenoms. Not only are minor leaguers notoriously hard to gauge, but even if the Sox gave Cabrera three or four years, it's hard to see what the danger would be. That Ramirez wouldn't take over full time until he's 24, instead of at 23? That Pedroia would have to learn second base, just in case? The GM's dream is likely that they get two years of brilliance from Cabrera, then replace him with a rookie who immediately fills his shoes, rather than having the rookie watch and learn from the bench for a while. You want a guy to hit free agency after you've gotten something from him, not when he's just about to blossom. But Cabrera is here and now, and if there is a year or two when he's being pushed from below, I am sure an amicable solution can be reached for all parties.
Anyway, enough of that. Nobody can say anything at all about what free agents are going where, primarily because the players themselves don't have any clue. It's early. Plan B is that we bridge the Cabrera and Ramirez eras with the decline phase of Omar Vizquel. I for one don't care to waste the Schilling-Manny-Pedro-Varitek era patching holes and waiting for 2007 to arrive. Sign the dude.
Thursday, November 11, 2004
Third Base
How much you appreciate baseball can be determined -- at least among Red Sox fans -- by how much you appreciate Bill Mueller. At least, the 2003/latter 2004 healthy version. He will never be as enticing a personality or dramatic performer as Ortiz, but by any Earth-bound standard he is a truly valuable player. In fact, precisely because he is not larger than life, because his value lies in less obvious places where the dollars generally do not, he is a GM's dream.
It's easy to say Mueller had a fluke year in 2003, when his .326 average brought him an improbable batting crown, and that 2004 was more like it. In other words, not much above average. For the record he finished the season with 12 home runs and 57 RBIs to go with a .283 average. Even in August, when his knee got healthy and he hit .380, he still didn't offer much power. He's a mid .800s OPS guy with a high OBP and a lot of doubles. He's also reputed to play decent defense. But that's it. Right?
To me, his contributions as a hitter are OPS and average, which is tangible and valuable. But his other contributions are far more subjective. His defense is not only solid-to-spectacular, it seems to show up at the most critical moments, like in a tie game in extra innings of an elimination game of the ALCS against the hated Yankees. Stuff like that. Also, his homer off Mariano Rivera to win a game in July was in many people's minds the beginning of the turnaround, or at least a marker in time that the players remembered when they needed to dig deep against Rivera in the playoffs. And lest anyone forget, it was Mueller who showed the troops again that Mariano was vincible with his single to score Roberts and tie game 4. The guy is a winner. And he's not going anyplace: any time a GM picks up the option on your contract before the champagne in his hair from the world series celebration has dried, you can assume you're in excellent standing on the team.
Thanks to the farm system (did I really just say that? Man, things have changed on Yawkey Way), third base is a particularly stable position for the Sox. The only thing stopping Mueller in 2005 is his fitness -- and there is a substantial possibility that his knees are in irreversible decline, just as his skills are reaching their peak. Yet the only greybeard on the active roster has a distinguished understudy in Kevin Youkilis, a guy whose plate performance looks a lot like what the Sox hired Mueller to do. His OPS numbers are almost identical to Mueller's -- same on-base, slightly lower slugging. His 33 walks in 200 ABs pretty much justifies the Moneyball hyping of him as the Greek God of Walks. Of course, this is a misnomer; despite a name ending in -is, Youkilis is Jewish, not Greek, and from this point forward he will be referred to as the Rabbi Moses Maimonedes of Walks. Ultimately his wisdom, plus his defense and his power stroke, remain subject to further development. But nobody who watches this kid has an unkind word for him.
How much you appreciate baseball can be determined -- at least among Red Sox fans -- by how much you appreciate Bill Mueller. At least, the 2003/latter 2004 healthy version. He will never be as enticing a personality or dramatic performer as Ortiz, but by any Earth-bound standard he is a truly valuable player. In fact, precisely because he is not larger than life, because his value lies in less obvious places where the dollars generally do not, he is a GM's dream.
It's easy to say Mueller had a fluke year in 2003, when his .326 average brought him an improbable batting crown, and that 2004 was more like it. In other words, not much above average. For the record he finished the season with 12 home runs and 57 RBIs to go with a .283 average. Even in August, when his knee got healthy and he hit .380, he still didn't offer much power. He's a mid .800s OPS guy with a high OBP and a lot of doubles. He's also reputed to play decent defense. But that's it. Right?
To me, his contributions as a hitter are OPS and average, which is tangible and valuable. But his other contributions are far more subjective. His defense is not only solid-to-spectacular, it seems to show up at the most critical moments, like in a tie game in extra innings of an elimination game of the ALCS against the hated Yankees. Stuff like that. Also, his homer off Mariano Rivera to win a game in July was in many people's minds the beginning of the turnaround, or at least a marker in time that the players remembered when they needed to dig deep against Rivera in the playoffs. And lest anyone forget, it was Mueller who showed the troops again that Mariano was vincible with his single to score Roberts and tie game 4. The guy is a winner. And he's not going anyplace: any time a GM picks up the option on your contract before the champagne in his hair from the world series celebration has dried, you can assume you're in excellent standing on the team.
Thanks to the farm system (did I really just say that? Man, things have changed on Yawkey Way), third base is a particularly stable position for the Sox. The only thing stopping Mueller in 2005 is his fitness -- and there is a substantial possibility that his knees are in irreversible decline, just as his skills are reaching their peak. Yet the only greybeard on the active roster has a distinguished understudy in Kevin Youkilis, a guy whose plate performance looks a lot like what the Sox hired Mueller to do. His OPS numbers are almost identical to Mueller's -- same on-base, slightly lower slugging. His 33 walks in 200 ABs pretty much justifies the Moneyball hyping of him as the Greek God of Walks. Of course, this is a misnomer; despite a name ending in -is, Youkilis is Jewish, not Greek, and from this point forward he will be referred to as the Rabbi Moses Maimonedes of Walks. Ultimately his wisdom, plus his defense and his power stroke, remain subject to further development. But nobody who watches this kid has an unkind word for him.
The Essence of the Nation
Being a Sox fan is not without its embarassment, particularly when traveling or living overseas. I mean, the years of fretting and carping, the juvenile chants of "Jeter Suck" and so on, the inferiority complex, etc. And don't get me started on the whole curse nonsense.
But it's all worthwhile, and there is possibly no better example of why as this. From Gammons:
"Pavano and his agent Scott Shapiro golfed in Florida on Monday with Heathcliff Slocumb -- the man traded for Varitek and Lowe -- and transplanted New Englanders were coming up to Slocumb, hugging and thanking him for being traded for the two postseason heroes. Incidentally, Slocumb is now a very successful real estate developer in the Orlando area."
In the end, the nonsense, the hate, the obsession, pale in comparison to the love.
Being a Sox fan is not without its embarassment, particularly when traveling or living overseas. I mean, the years of fretting and carping, the juvenile chants of "Jeter Suck" and so on, the inferiority complex, etc. And don't get me started on the whole curse nonsense.
But it's all worthwhile, and there is possibly no better example of why as this. From Gammons:
"Pavano and his agent Scott Shapiro golfed in Florida on Monday with Heathcliff Slocumb -- the man traded for Varitek and Lowe -- and transplanted New Englanders were coming up to Slocumb, hugging and thanking him for being traded for the two postseason heroes. Incidentally, Slocumb is now a very successful real estate developer in the Orlando area."
In the end, the nonsense, the hate, the obsession, pale in comparison to the love.
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Second Base
So, when is the Red Sox media avalanche going to begin? I'm itchin to get my copy of "Glove Story: Pokey and the 2004 Red Sox," or maybe "Anatomy of a Curse: the 2004 Diaries of Dr. Bill Morgan." Seriously, this has to happen by the holidays, right?
One person we won't hear much from, by all accounts, is Mark Bellhorn. Apparently he's a bit shy and quiet. Of course, maybe there's no oxygen left in the room once Millar, Ortiz, Nelson de la Rosa and others have had their say. Anyway, Bellhorn is one of those guys the fans struggle to understand. Everyone knows he hits for power and gets on a lot, but they can't help booing him now and then over the strikeouts. And frankly, when he's on a strikeout tear, it isn't pretty. His 177 strikeouts this year were the most in the AL; second was Hank Blalock at 149. Damn. And yet his 88 walks were third in the league, and he came within career highs for on base average and slugging, while setting a career best in average. All this while playing tolerable defense and turning the DP with balletic flair. Ok, maybe not, but he is efficient.
Nobody likes strikeouts, and if you whiff 170 times a year, a fair number of them will be somewhat memorable, in terms of runners stranded, games ended, etc. But the Epstein system says that over time, you will always score if you put together a bunch of guys who get on base. Bonus points for hitting for power. Well, then, Bellhorn is perfect for the Sox' 2B job, strikeouts or no. And, FWIW, he did hit critical home runs in three consecutive postseason games: the 3-run mini-shot that accounted for the Sox offense in ALCS game 6; the two-run shot that put the nail in the Yankee coffin once and for all; and the clanging foul pole shot that won game 1 of the World Series. So, the holes in his swing are easily forgiven.
Pokey Reese spent the season split between playing short and sitting on the bench. Pokey bailed out the Sox when Nomar was hurt early on, but he could never get the 2B job away from Bellhorn for any length of time. He once again is angling for an opportunity to start, and on defense alone he will get a serious offer. Just not likely from the Sox, who appear willing to stretch themselves a bit to accommodate Orlando Cabrera, the man whose arrival essentially forced Pokey to the bench. Pokey's offensive numbers are... well...? Not good. A small-market team might be interested at a fair price, but otherwise Pokey has hit himself out of most of his options as a starter. He's the backup everyone wants.
Prediction: Bellhorn stays and gives us more of the same. Pokey moves on...
So, when is the Red Sox media avalanche going to begin? I'm itchin to get my copy of "Glove Story: Pokey and the 2004 Red Sox," or maybe "Anatomy of a Curse: the 2004 Diaries of Dr. Bill Morgan." Seriously, this has to happen by the holidays, right?
One person we won't hear much from, by all accounts, is Mark Bellhorn. Apparently he's a bit shy and quiet. Of course, maybe there's no oxygen left in the room once Millar, Ortiz, Nelson de la Rosa and others have had their say. Anyway, Bellhorn is one of those guys the fans struggle to understand. Everyone knows he hits for power and gets on a lot, but they can't help booing him now and then over the strikeouts. And frankly, when he's on a strikeout tear, it isn't pretty. His 177 strikeouts this year were the most in the AL; second was Hank Blalock at 149. Damn. And yet his 88 walks were third in the league, and he came within career highs for on base average and slugging, while setting a career best in average. All this while playing tolerable defense and turning the DP with balletic flair. Ok, maybe not, but he is efficient.
Nobody likes strikeouts, and if you whiff 170 times a year, a fair number of them will be somewhat memorable, in terms of runners stranded, games ended, etc. But the Epstein system says that over time, you will always score if you put together a bunch of guys who get on base. Bonus points for hitting for power. Well, then, Bellhorn is perfect for the Sox' 2B job, strikeouts or no. And, FWIW, he did hit critical home runs in three consecutive postseason games: the 3-run mini-shot that accounted for the Sox offense in ALCS game 6; the two-run shot that put the nail in the Yankee coffin once and for all; and the clanging foul pole shot that won game 1 of the World Series. So, the holes in his swing are easily forgiven.
Pokey Reese spent the season split between playing short and sitting on the bench. Pokey bailed out the Sox when Nomar was hurt early on, but he could never get the 2B job away from Bellhorn for any length of time. He once again is angling for an opportunity to start, and on defense alone he will get a serious offer. Just not likely from the Sox, who appear willing to stretch themselves a bit to accommodate Orlando Cabrera, the man whose arrival essentially forced Pokey to the bench. Pokey's offensive numbers are... well...? Not good. A small-market team might be interested at a fair price, but otherwise Pokey has hit himself out of most of his options as a starter. He's the backup everyone wants.
Prediction: Bellhorn stays and gives us more of the same. Pokey moves on...
First Base
Probably the one position on the field where the Sox have been arguably unsettled. Until someone finds a way to merge Doug Mientkiewicz's defense with Kevin Millar's bat, that will remain the case.
Kevin Millar, of course, is one of the team's folk heroes, though to the hard-headed realists that occupy at least half of the Sox' front office, it may be difficult to remember why. His baserunning and fielding are tailor-made for late inning substitutions, and Millar should be thankful for the 500 at-bats he still got this season. His hitting has been pleasant at times, but he can be mediocre for months on end and his finished product is nothing to sing about. He actually upped his OPS to .850 this season, the dominion of the Jose Guillens and Aubrey Huffs. His lefty-righty splits are nearly indistinguishable, unless you count power numbers, where he actually does better jerking righties toward the wall. In other words, he's a solid major leaguer, but very easy to replace. He's not one of the Sox' 137 free agents, so unless he gets dealt (something that has been rumored a bit), he's coming back. Expect more of the clowning that is indispensable to the team, and a sound-bite theme along the lines of defending the title or whatever.
Mientkiewicz is Mirabelli to Millar's Varitek, in the sense that he is ideally suited to fill the role that the starter can't -- in this case, playing defense. Not entirely unlike Mirabelli, Mientkiewicz (can we get a macro for this name?) also believes he can be a regular, though in Mientkiewicz's case he's done it. And every other year, he's done it reasonably well, at least from the perspective of his former small-market employers who can tolerate an almost total lack of power hitting from the number one power hitting slot on the field. In 2001 and 2003 Mientkiewicz hit around .300 with an on-base average of .390 -- kind of Luis Castillo with a first-base mitt. And with '05 being an odd year, maybe he'll break out again.
But it probably won't be in Boston. I seem to recall that although he's also not a FA, he's arbitration eligible, and his great glove alone is a luxury the Sox cannot afford. He belongs in a Yankee uniform, I would say, given how awful -- and yet unmoveable -- Giambi is and given that Mientkiewicz's power is all to right field. Best case scenario: the Sox keep him and he learns how to pepper the wall. It's a possibility, the guy has enough bat control to hit .300.
It's possible neither of these guys will be here, and the Sox will try to find a first baseman with a full skill set. They are aware of what chemistry means to this team and won't deal Millar lightly, at least not for some self-centered jerk, but if they do, it means they are clearing the way for someone who can do it all. My dream scenario is that they sign Troy Glaus cheap and he converts to 1B. If he finally got a break and stayed healthy, he would easily hit 40 homers at Fenway. Easily. The guy is made for the Fens. But moving Millar will be too hard for the brass to swallow unless they have a guaranteed upgrade, and the available options like Glaus and Delgado are no guarantees. Look for Dave McCarty to come back as the utility backup if Millar is still here. He's serviceable.
Probably the one position on the field where the Sox have been arguably unsettled. Until someone finds a way to merge Doug Mientkiewicz's defense with Kevin Millar's bat, that will remain the case.
Kevin Millar, of course, is one of the team's folk heroes, though to the hard-headed realists that occupy at least half of the Sox' front office, it may be difficult to remember why. His baserunning and fielding are tailor-made for late inning substitutions, and Millar should be thankful for the 500 at-bats he still got this season. His hitting has been pleasant at times, but he can be mediocre for months on end and his finished product is nothing to sing about. He actually upped his OPS to .850 this season, the dominion of the Jose Guillens and Aubrey Huffs. His lefty-righty splits are nearly indistinguishable, unless you count power numbers, where he actually does better jerking righties toward the wall. In other words, he's a solid major leaguer, but very easy to replace. He's not one of the Sox' 137 free agents, so unless he gets dealt (something that has been rumored a bit), he's coming back. Expect more of the clowning that is indispensable to the team, and a sound-bite theme along the lines of defending the title or whatever.
Mientkiewicz is Mirabelli to Millar's Varitek, in the sense that he is ideally suited to fill the role that the starter can't -- in this case, playing defense. Not entirely unlike Mirabelli, Mientkiewicz (can we get a macro for this name?) also believes he can be a regular, though in Mientkiewicz's case he's done it. And every other year, he's done it reasonably well, at least from the perspective of his former small-market employers who can tolerate an almost total lack of power hitting from the number one power hitting slot on the field. In 2001 and 2003 Mientkiewicz hit around .300 with an on-base average of .390 -- kind of Luis Castillo with a first-base mitt. And with '05 being an odd year, maybe he'll break out again.
But it probably won't be in Boston. I seem to recall that although he's also not a FA, he's arbitration eligible, and his great glove alone is a luxury the Sox cannot afford. He belongs in a Yankee uniform, I would say, given how awful -- and yet unmoveable -- Giambi is and given that Mientkiewicz's power is all to right field. Best case scenario: the Sox keep him and he learns how to pepper the wall. It's a possibility, the guy has enough bat control to hit .300.
It's possible neither of these guys will be here, and the Sox will try to find a first baseman with a full skill set. They are aware of what chemistry means to this team and won't deal Millar lightly, at least not for some self-centered jerk, but if they do, it means they are clearing the way for someone who can do it all. My dream scenario is that they sign Troy Glaus cheap and he converts to 1B. If he finally got a break and stayed healthy, he would easily hit 40 homers at Fenway. Easily. The guy is made for the Fens. But moving Millar will be too hard for the brass to swallow unless they have a guaranteed upgrade, and the available options like Glaus and Delgado are no guarantees. Look for Dave McCarty to come back as the utility backup if Millar is still here. He's serviceable.
No Panic
The Patriots' peak injury issues couldn't have happened at a worse time, converging as it did with the peak in the Patriots' schedule -- road games at Pittsburgh and St. Louis. And the loss at Pittsburgh was deflating. But the game with St. Louis could not have been more different, and pretty telling of several key elements to this great team.
* At some point, injuries start piling up, and when you lose key people in the middle of a game, unexpectedly, it can be devastating. So, when Law went out in Pittsburgh, the Steelers immediately threw deep on Randall Gay, his rookie replacement, for a score, then piled on another while the team was still licking its wounds. Even the Patriots can only handle so much at once, and losing one of the lynchpins of the defense, in the midst of a severe test on the road, was rough.
* But the Patriots served notice to anyone (like the Rams) who may have been paying attention that they were down, but not for long. They stayed in their shell long enough to go down 21-3, but began battling, at least to save face, beginning with the second quarter. And the Pats outscored the Steelers the rest of the way, 17-13. Still a loss, but at least nobody quit.
* As for this week, it just goes to show you that the only adversity that can harm the Patriots is the kind for which they cannot prepare. A week later, with almost as many bodies on the bench, the Patriots came out and manhandled the Rams in their own home. Even after Asante Samuel, the latest to start at CB, went down with a shoulder injury almost right away. It looked like the previous weekend, except the Patriots immediately began battling back. People stepped in from the offense and the practice squad to batten down the leaky backfield, and did a perfectly decent job (helped immeasurably by a strong pass rush). I think the biggest difference is that the Rams are nowhere near as tough as the Steelers. But the second biggest difference is that, give Belichick a week to deal with a thin backfield, and he and his cohorts will devise a game plan that attacks the opponent's weakness rather than allowing opponents to attack theirs. The Patriots showed great guts and cleverness both in defeating St. Louis.
* Oh, and for the record, Corey Dillon is god.
And so go the biggest trials of the season. Seriously, Indy, Pittsburgh and the Rams are all behind us. Only KC, Baltimore and the Jets are left among arguably good teams on the schedule; KC and Jets on the road. It's hard to see where the Patriots' record will be any worse than 12-4, though you never know, I guess. A few more injuries and all bets are off. But for now, the Patriots will be looking at a good playoff position. Unfortunately, the Steelers' schedule must be one of the weakest in the NFL. No matter, I'd like to see a rematch, even if it's in Pittsburgh. Can a great Belichick team lose twice to the same team in a season? It's likely we'll get our answer in the AFC Championship Game.
The Patriots' peak injury issues couldn't have happened at a worse time, converging as it did with the peak in the Patriots' schedule -- road games at Pittsburgh and St. Louis. And the loss at Pittsburgh was deflating. But the game with St. Louis could not have been more different, and pretty telling of several key elements to this great team.
* At some point, injuries start piling up, and when you lose key people in the middle of a game, unexpectedly, it can be devastating. So, when Law went out in Pittsburgh, the Steelers immediately threw deep on Randall Gay, his rookie replacement, for a score, then piled on another while the team was still licking its wounds. Even the Patriots can only handle so much at once, and losing one of the lynchpins of the defense, in the midst of a severe test on the road, was rough.
* But the Patriots served notice to anyone (like the Rams) who may have been paying attention that they were down, but not for long. They stayed in their shell long enough to go down 21-3, but began battling, at least to save face, beginning with the second quarter. And the Pats outscored the Steelers the rest of the way, 17-13. Still a loss, but at least nobody quit.
* As for this week, it just goes to show you that the only adversity that can harm the Patriots is the kind for which they cannot prepare. A week later, with almost as many bodies on the bench, the Patriots came out and manhandled the Rams in their own home. Even after Asante Samuel, the latest to start at CB, went down with a shoulder injury almost right away. It looked like the previous weekend, except the Patriots immediately began battling back. People stepped in from the offense and the practice squad to batten down the leaky backfield, and did a perfectly decent job (helped immeasurably by a strong pass rush). I think the biggest difference is that the Rams are nowhere near as tough as the Steelers. But the second biggest difference is that, give Belichick a week to deal with a thin backfield, and he and his cohorts will devise a game plan that attacks the opponent's weakness rather than allowing opponents to attack theirs. The Patriots showed great guts and cleverness both in defeating St. Louis.
* Oh, and for the record, Corey Dillon is god.
And so go the biggest trials of the season. Seriously, Indy, Pittsburgh and the Rams are all behind us. Only KC, Baltimore and the Jets are left among arguably good teams on the schedule; KC and Jets on the road. It's hard to see where the Patriots' record will be any worse than 12-4, though you never know, I guess. A few more injuries and all bets are off. But for now, the Patriots will be looking at a good playoff position. Unfortunately, the Steelers' schedule must be one of the weakest in the NFL. No matter, I'd like to see a rematch, even if it's in Pittsburgh. Can a great Belichick team lose twice to the same team in a season? It's likely we'll get our answer in the AFC Championship Game.
Friday, November 05, 2004
Some things never change
The baseball world shook this morning with the sudden firing -- or more accurately, de-hiring -- of ex-1986 Met Wally Backman, whom the Arizona Diamondbacks had named as their manager four days ago. The D-Backs hadn't completed their background check yet, and through either shrewdness or dumb luck Backman hadn't signed his contract. In the last few days, it's become public knowledge that Backman has had several run-ins with the law that, if nothing else, will solidify his standing in the peckerwood hall of fame. Backman was arrested in Prineville, OR, which last time I checked was a small high-desert cattle town known for huge percentages of bible thumpers and pregnant teens. His wife said he attacked her or something. He was also DUI in Kennewick, WA, another dusty town known mostly for the unearthing of a 10,000 year old fossil that local Indian tribes have been trying to re-bury for about a decade, rather than have scientists picking at the bones of their ancestors.
Anyway, that's all that has been reported, but in any case the D-Backs had had enough and canned Backman this morning, consigning him to his own misery located, no doubt, at the bottom of a cheap bottle. I believe it was Strawberry who called Backman a peckerwood back in the day. Apparently, like his other Met brethren, success didn't do much to change him.
The baseball world shook this morning with the sudden firing -- or more accurately, de-hiring -- of ex-1986 Met Wally Backman, whom the Arizona Diamondbacks had named as their manager four days ago. The D-Backs hadn't completed their background check yet, and through either shrewdness or dumb luck Backman hadn't signed his contract. In the last few days, it's become public knowledge that Backman has had several run-ins with the law that, if nothing else, will solidify his standing in the peckerwood hall of fame. Backman was arrested in Prineville, OR, which last time I checked was a small high-desert cattle town known for huge percentages of bible thumpers and pregnant teens. His wife said he attacked her or something. He was also DUI in Kennewick, WA, another dusty town known mostly for the unearthing of a 10,000 year old fossil that local Indian tribes have been trying to re-bury for about a decade, rather than have scientists picking at the bones of their ancestors.
Anyway, that's all that has been reported, but in any case the D-Backs had had enough and canned Backman this morning, consigning him to his own misery located, no doubt, at the bottom of a cheap bottle. I believe it was Strawberry who called Backman a peckerwood back in the day. Apparently, like his other Met brethren, success didn't do much to change him.
Oki-No-Chichi
From today's Globe, the adventures of Senor Octubre:
Call him Oki-no-Chichi, which is how they say "Big Papi" in Japanese. Ortiz's two-run single in the sixth inning erased a 2-0 deficit for a major-league all-star team that went on to roll over a team of Japanese stars, 7-2, before a crowd of about 24,500 in the Tokyo Dome, site of the first of eight games between the teams. Instead of a curtain call, Ortiz was summoned onto a makeshift stage placed on the field after the game and was given a check for 300,000 yen -- roughly $2,900 -- as the game's "Most Important Player.''
From today's Globe, the adventures of Senor Octubre:
Call him Oki-no-Chichi, which is how they say "Big Papi" in Japanese. Ortiz's two-run single in the sixth inning erased a 2-0 deficit for a major-league all-star team that went on to roll over a team of Japanese stars, 7-2, before a crowd of about 24,500 in the Tokyo Dome, site of the first of eight games between the teams. Instead of a curtain call, Ortiz was summoned onto a makeshift stage placed on the field after the game and was given a check for 300,000 yen -- roughly $2,900 -- as the game's "Most Important Player.''
Thursday, November 04, 2004
Catcher
Doug Mirabelli and Jason Varitek form one of -- if not the -- best catching tandems in baseball. Putting aside the numbers, which I'll get to in a moment, they complement each other in a manner that makes a manager's job easy: Varitek is the #1, Mirabelli functions well in part time, including handling the very specific and unusual job of catching Wakefield. Also, Mirabelli is a righty pull hitter, while Varitek's switch hitting covers the Wall and the rest of Fenway.
And they're both free agents.
Much has been reported recently about Varitek being the soul of the franchise, and that may be, but it would be unfair to overlook the amazing job Mirabelli did filling in for Varitek and his big shoes. In the last three seasons his average has gone from .225 to .258 to this year's sparkling .281. More tellingly, his on-base average ticked up to .368 and his slugging .525, for a robust OPS of .893. These are all-star numbers, or would be, if he could carry it out over more than his requisite 60 games/160 ABs. Anybody who watched Mirabelli this season knows he can crush the ball if you give in to him. Ask Woody Williams.
Varitek, meanwhile, is perhaps the most valuable catcher in the AL. I say that on conjecture; if you want to look at numbers, he wasn't as productive as Victor Martinez, but with fewer ABs he was roughly on par with Pudge, Posada and Javy Lopez. His OPS was a career high .871, due to a ridiculous on-base average of .390. As a subjective observation, I'd say he was pretty clutch, as his 7 RBIs and .321 average in the ALCS would attest. He hit .455 in August, the month when the Sox came alive. And the entire club swears by his field presence and game calling, which now that they just won the World Series is a considerable compliment.
So what now?? Mirabelli has likely earned the chance to catch more regularly, possibly even a starter's role on a team willing to take a small risk. His career high in ABs is 230, so nobody really knows what he can do over a full season. He turned 34 during the ALCS, so he's nobody's long-term solution, but Mirabelli has obviously learned how to maximize his hitting with minimal chances, something that often comes late with catchers, and his body hasn't seen the wear-and-tear most veteran backstops experience. I love him in Boston as long as Wakefield is around -- that duty alone increases his value 20 percent -- but I expect he will get a better chance someplace else. The Sox won't overspend on a backup, since they want to see what Kelly Shoppach can do at some point.
Which leaves Varitek. As the Sox sift through their free agent decisions, one factor people constantly mention is the presence of a hot prospect coming up in the system. Well, I've been reading Peter Gammons' columns religiously for decades, and they contain a steady stream of hot prospect tips... the vast majority of which come to nothing. Not to blame Gammons, his information was most likely sound at the time, but somewhere between AAA and the bigs a lot of bright careers wash out. So, I agree with the conventional wisdom that the Sox don't want to completely block future (inexpensive) studs, but I wouldn't bank on any of them til they arrive. Shoppach was an enigma in AAA last year, and even if he pans out, he wouldn't be ready to shoulder the incredible demands of being a starting major league catcher anytime soon. Best case scenario is to resign Varitek and let Shoppach learn from the best for a few years. Also, I don't buy the doomsayers about Varitek getting old and losing it in three years. Even if his bat slows down, he'd still only be 35 at the end of a three-year deal. And his intangibles will be through the roof. He's not looking for a Beltran mega-deal. The financial risk to the Sox giving in to Varitek won't likely be that great. Also, try to imagine the Sox' starters' ERA next year without Varitek. [interesting aside: what's the over/under on Derek Lowe's ERA without Varitek coaxing him along?] Sign the guy, now. Give him three and a club option on a fourth with a nice buyout. Chances are good we'll be speaking in hushed, reverent tones about the guy in 2007.
Doug Mirabelli and Jason Varitek form one of -- if not the -- best catching tandems in baseball. Putting aside the numbers, which I'll get to in a moment, they complement each other in a manner that makes a manager's job easy: Varitek is the #1, Mirabelli functions well in part time, including handling the very specific and unusual job of catching Wakefield. Also, Mirabelli is a righty pull hitter, while Varitek's switch hitting covers the Wall and the rest of Fenway.
And they're both free agents.
Much has been reported recently about Varitek being the soul of the franchise, and that may be, but it would be unfair to overlook the amazing job Mirabelli did filling in for Varitek and his big shoes. In the last three seasons his average has gone from .225 to .258 to this year's sparkling .281. More tellingly, his on-base average ticked up to .368 and his slugging .525, for a robust OPS of .893. These are all-star numbers, or would be, if he could carry it out over more than his requisite 60 games/160 ABs. Anybody who watched Mirabelli this season knows he can crush the ball if you give in to him. Ask Woody Williams.
Varitek, meanwhile, is perhaps the most valuable catcher in the AL. I say that on conjecture; if you want to look at numbers, he wasn't as productive as Victor Martinez, but with fewer ABs he was roughly on par with Pudge, Posada and Javy Lopez. His OPS was a career high .871, due to a ridiculous on-base average of .390. As a subjective observation, I'd say he was pretty clutch, as his 7 RBIs and .321 average in the ALCS would attest. He hit .455 in August, the month when the Sox came alive. And the entire club swears by his field presence and game calling, which now that they just won the World Series is a considerable compliment.
So what now?? Mirabelli has likely earned the chance to catch more regularly, possibly even a starter's role on a team willing to take a small risk. His career high in ABs is 230, so nobody really knows what he can do over a full season. He turned 34 during the ALCS, so he's nobody's long-term solution, but Mirabelli has obviously learned how to maximize his hitting with minimal chances, something that often comes late with catchers, and his body hasn't seen the wear-and-tear most veteran backstops experience. I love him in Boston as long as Wakefield is around -- that duty alone increases his value 20 percent -- but I expect he will get a better chance someplace else. The Sox won't overspend on a backup, since they want to see what Kelly Shoppach can do at some point.
Which leaves Varitek. As the Sox sift through their free agent decisions, one factor people constantly mention is the presence of a hot prospect coming up in the system. Well, I've been reading Peter Gammons' columns religiously for decades, and they contain a steady stream of hot prospect tips... the vast majority of which come to nothing. Not to blame Gammons, his information was most likely sound at the time, but somewhere between AAA and the bigs a lot of bright careers wash out. So, I agree with the conventional wisdom that the Sox don't want to completely block future (inexpensive) studs, but I wouldn't bank on any of them til they arrive. Shoppach was an enigma in AAA last year, and even if he pans out, he wouldn't be ready to shoulder the incredible demands of being a starting major league catcher anytime soon. Best case scenario is to resign Varitek and let Shoppach learn from the best for a few years. Also, I don't buy the doomsayers about Varitek getting old and losing it in three years. Even if his bat slows down, he'd still only be 35 at the end of a three-year deal. And his intangibles will be through the roof. He's not looking for a Beltran mega-deal. The financial risk to the Sox giving in to Varitek won't likely be that great. Also, try to imagine the Sox' starters' ERA next year without Varitek. [interesting aside: what's the over/under on Derek Lowe's ERA without Varitek coaxing him along?] Sign the guy, now. Give him three and a club option on a fourth with a nice buyout. Chances are good we'll be speaking in hushed, reverent tones about the guy in 2007.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Next Up
I plan to go position by position, looking back at the 2004 season and postseason, as well as what the future portends. No holds barred... meaning, BK Kim can expect a few Atomic Elbows.
I plan to go position by position, looking back at the 2004 season and postseason, as well as what the future portends. No holds barred... meaning, BK Kim can expect a few Atomic Elbows.
Post-Mortem Post
On the plane home from Boston Monday I had an essay brewing in my brain on why all this really matters, and for a while it went something like this: Peter Gammons, on whose writings this site is largely based, opined in the immediate aftermath of the World Series that you couldn't understand why this was so important unless you grew up in New England. This rather cryptic message refers to our shared experience with the Red Sox and all the sorrow it implies, which has bound 6 million strangers together in an odd, but very real way.
I went to the victory parade to soak in the joy and see how this bonding theory held up. I arrived at Logan as the parade was getting underway, and made my way quickly to Government Center to find a vantage point. For a while I wondered, as I waited there, whether this trip was a bad idea. It was exhausting, expensive, and took me away from my family, something that already happens too much. And all so I could stand in the rain with a bunch of drunk kids chanting "show us your tits" and "Jeter swallows"? OK, I've heard worse, and there are chuckleheads in all 50 states, but what bothered me was that maybe the crowning moment in Red Sox history was being hijacked by the worst elements of Red Sox Nation -- even worse than the talk radio guys who, at this moment, are undoubtedly complaining about Pedro.
Fortunately, the parade came by pretty soon after I arrived, and suddenly I found myself deliriously screaming and waiving my hat to Doug Mirabelli, Kevin Millar, the training staff, and anyone else who looked my way. The crowd was in a complete frenzy of delight, roaring a bit louder as each successive car came by, the latter ones carrying some of the larger figures. Namely, Papi -- a true future gubernatorial candidate if ever there was one, at least as far as slow-footed Dominican guys are concerned. Confetti rained down from the darkened office buildings inhabited by craft employees willing to come in on the weekend and shred documents, just once for a good cause. Banners hung from everywhere, many looking pretty polished for a 48-hour turnaround. And the rain never really came down.
It was all over in a couple minutes, though in that time I'd seen roughly 20 players and lost 50 percent of my voice. We all exhaled, and slowly the crowd began to disperse, though the merriment wasn't completely over. A handful stayed behind at the Oldies 103 truck, belting out Sweet Caroline one last time before winter. I contributed my voice, then started walking in the reverse direction of the parade, taking in the aftermath along the route. Signs showed different styles of worship that the crass version I started off with. Loew's Theater on the Common had renamed itself "Lowe's" for the occasion. Some cheeky student types had signs like "Dave Roberts is Really Fast" and other banalities. Which I liked. A guy stood on the balcony of his apartment, 15 stories up, waiving a broom with no further explanation. Dominican guys walked around with things indicating they were Dominican, like draping their flag over their shoulders.
After a while, it all began to sink in, to the point where I was revisiting the initial shock. My fear in encountering those morons at Gov Center was that I'd come to commune with the Nation and found that the people coming out weren't true members, that they were there out of mere fashion, just associating themselves with whatever looked better than their own sorry lot. But just because they express themselves in unoriginal gutter angst, doesn't necessarily mean they don't share the wounds with me. Or that they couldn't tell you where they were when Game 6 of the '86 World Series ended. Or that they don't share the same honest-to-goodness pride in what just happened.
Later, on the plane ride home, I pulled out a picture of Ortiz hitting his game-four-winning blast against the Yankees which I'd ripped out of a magazine I had planned to toss. You can look for mystical clues everywhere as to how this was clearly ordained to be the year, like in the moon turning red in late-stage eclipse as the Sox were clinching the title. God seems to be increasingly less subtle these days. But as I looked at this photo, I think I found the source of it all. The picture, which should be famous soon if it isn't already, is of Ortiz in his follow-through, his bearish figure in perfect balance showing how one's whole body can be used to drive the ball, which is clearly rocketing off on a perfect home run vector. Probably 1/100th of a second after the hit itself. And all of Fenway is on their feet, already... on a 2-1 count? With a guy on first but no other sign of imminent victory? In the 12th inning of a series that was almost a sweep an inning earlier? Seriously, either hope springs eternal, on no more than 30 seconds' notice, or something was in the air that night.
I watched the replay on line last night. The TV announcers commented just beforehand that Ortiz had practically run up to the plate to hit. He Knew Something. No, there was nothing normal going on that night, or any time after.
On the plane home from Boston Monday I had an essay brewing in my brain on why all this really matters, and for a while it went something like this: Peter Gammons, on whose writings this site is largely based, opined in the immediate aftermath of the World Series that you couldn't understand why this was so important unless you grew up in New England. This rather cryptic message refers to our shared experience with the Red Sox and all the sorrow it implies, which has bound 6 million strangers together in an odd, but very real way.
I went to the victory parade to soak in the joy and see how this bonding theory held up. I arrived at Logan as the parade was getting underway, and made my way quickly to Government Center to find a vantage point. For a while I wondered, as I waited there, whether this trip was a bad idea. It was exhausting, expensive, and took me away from my family, something that already happens too much. And all so I could stand in the rain with a bunch of drunk kids chanting "show us your tits" and "Jeter swallows"? OK, I've heard worse, and there are chuckleheads in all 50 states, but what bothered me was that maybe the crowning moment in Red Sox history was being hijacked by the worst elements of Red Sox Nation -- even worse than the talk radio guys who, at this moment, are undoubtedly complaining about Pedro.
Fortunately, the parade came by pretty soon after I arrived, and suddenly I found myself deliriously screaming and waiving my hat to Doug Mirabelli, Kevin Millar, the training staff, and anyone else who looked my way. The crowd was in a complete frenzy of delight, roaring a bit louder as each successive car came by, the latter ones carrying some of the larger figures. Namely, Papi -- a true future gubernatorial candidate if ever there was one, at least as far as slow-footed Dominican guys are concerned. Confetti rained down from the darkened office buildings inhabited by craft employees willing to come in on the weekend and shred documents, just once for a good cause. Banners hung from everywhere, many looking pretty polished for a 48-hour turnaround. And the rain never really came down.
It was all over in a couple minutes, though in that time I'd seen roughly 20 players and lost 50 percent of my voice. We all exhaled, and slowly the crowd began to disperse, though the merriment wasn't completely over. A handful stayed behind at the Oldies 103 truck, belting out Sweet Caroline one last time before winter. I contributed my voice, then started walking in the reverse direction of the parade, taking in the aftermath along the route. Signs showed different styles of worship that the crass version I started off with. Loew's Theater on the Common had renamed itself "Lowe's" for the occasion. Some cheeky student types had signs like "Dave Roberts is Really Fast" and other banalities. Which I liked. A guy stood on the balcony of his apartment, 15 stories up, waiving a broom with no further explanation. Dominican guys walked around with things indicating they were Dominican, like draping their flag over their shoulders.
After a while, it all began to sink in, to the point where I was revisiting the initial shock. My fear in encountering those morons at Gov Center was that I'd come to commune with the Nation and found that the people coming out weren't true members, that they were there out of mere fashion, just associating themselves with whatever looked better than their own sorry lot. But just because they express themselves in unoriginal gutter angst, doesn't necessarily mean they don't share the wounds with me. Or that they couldn't tell you where they were when Game 6 of the '86 World Series ended. Or that they don't share the same honest-to-goodness pride in what just happened.
Later, on the plane ride home, I pulled out a picture of Ortiz hitting his game-four-winning blast against the Yankees which I'd ripped out of a magazine I had planned to toss. You can look for mystical clues everywhere as to how this was clearly ordained to be the year, like in the moon turning red in late-stage eclipse as the Sox were clinching the title. God seems to be increasingly less subtle these days. But as I looked at this photo, I think I found the source of it all. The picture, which should be famous soon if it isn't already, is of Ortiz in his follow-through, his bearish figure in perfect balance showing how one's whole body can be used to drive the ball, which is clearly rocketing off on a perfect home run vector. Probably 1/100th of a second after the hit itself. And all of Fenway is on their feet, already... on a 2-1 count? With a guy on first but no other sign of imminent victory? In the 12th inning of a series that was almost a sweep an inning earlier? Seriously, either hope springs eternal, on no more than 30 seconds' notice, or something was in the air that night.
I watched the replay on line last night. The TV announcers commented just beforehand that Ortiz had practically run up to the plate to hit. He Knew Something. No, there was nothing normal going on that night, or any time after.
