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Monday, May 31, 2004

Tough Nuts

This weekend could possibly be one of those moments a team looks back on and says, that's when it all really started to happen. OK, so they run Derek Lowe out there in an hour or so to cap it off, so all sorts of things can still go wrong. But Seattle could have easily swept the Sox the way they were playing, and thanks to both collective and individual mental toughness, the Sox took 2 of 3.

Friday night: Pedro goes down 4-1 early on to a team that has never beaten him and against whom he had a lifetime ERA of 1. Piniero making Sox hitters (other than Manny) look foolish. Finally in the 5th they put a 5-spot on Piniero, but the Mariners keep making runs at Pedro. He hung tough, in a game he could easily have lost. Sox get a couple cheap runs late and win 8-4.

Saturday: this time it's Wakefield's turn to submit a lame start, as the Mariners get up by 5 after three innings. But in true Wakefield fashion, he soldiers on as the Sox inch closer and closer, scratching out runs against the league's ERA leader, Freddy Garcia. Only a stellar effort by the heretofore lameass Seattle bullpen halts the Sox comeback before it's too late.

Sunday: what started out so perfectly for the Sox looks like it's turning into a nightmarish loss, as Keith Foulke finally blows a save, in spectactular fashion, but the Sox immediately battle back to tie, match the Seattle bullpen frame-for-frame, and finally win on McCarty's 12th inning blast.

Seattle did several things very well. They knocked around two of the league's most difficult starters, and when they couldn't get to Schilling, they hung around and torched the AL's hottest closer instead. Seattle led in every game. They outhit the Sox 11-9 and 11-10 before falling short yesterday (though when you get perfected for 6.2 innings, getting outhit 12-8 isn't as bad as it looks). Seattle's maligned bullpen looked downright nasty, particularly Saturday and Sunday. And they lost the series.

The Sox looked better on several occasions, like when they were knocking around the Yankees back in April. But sometimes it's how you win without your best that really shows what you're made of. The Sox beat the Mariners by hanging with pitchers who continued to battle after giving up runs. They won with unexpected success from people like McCarty and Youkilis and Andy Dominique, a batting order that looks like a spring training box where the manager is trying to get a look at everyone. They have kept the faith without Nixon and Nomar, long after people like me thought they'd gone as far as they could without the two stars. Good lineups like the Yankees currently have can win games just on talent, at least for a while. But the Sox are winning the way good teams do it.

Thursday, May 27, 2004

taking on water

Actually, the Sox look quite excellent these days, but they say the first third of the season is all about seeing what you have and don't have. And we don't have a #5 starter, at least not one that's going to win much.

Bronson Arroyo is a 27-year-old curveballer on the verge of journeyman status. His game is a sweeping breaking ball that is hard to hit, if he can throw strikes with it. And when he can, he uses it to set up a rather average fastball, to put it kindly. The problem is, it's very hard to locate a curveball for strikes on the corners or the lower part of the zone, where it's not going to be hammered. So it's a great pitch, but works better as a second or third option, after something else you CAN throw strikes with. How many major leaguers actually make a living throwing the curve? Zito sorta does, but his fastball is pretty impressive too. That's about it. And Bronson Arroyo is no Barry Zito. Some nights Arroyo can hit his spots, like two starts ago when he held Toronto to three hits in 8 innings, but his makeup simply isn't that of a reliable pitcher.

Meanwhile, the incredible shrinking Derek Lowe did actually show something prior to the Chavez homer in his shaky win Wednesday. His command -- the cause and solution to all of his problems -- was on for a little while. Which is more than you can say for some of his recent outings. My hunch is that Lowe will settle down into a more comfortably mediocre state, where he wins a lot thanks to ample run support, and that Arroyo will go back to the bullpen where he was slated to be all along. And Theo will come up with a fifth starter someplace, unless Anastacio Martinez steps up.

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

p.s.

I am starting a new blog, a catch-all repository for all the non-sports chatter. There are just too many things to make fun of to confine it to sports.

Go here. Or not.

Tuesday, May 25, 2004

Five burps of wisdom

1. Mark Bellhorn is this year's Bill Mueller. How do we know this? First, Mueller himself is hanging in a meat locker someplace, so we know he's out of the running. Also, Bellhorn has taken over that juicy #2 spot in the order which Mueller sometimes occupied (though he spent more time hitting, like, 7th, so that Grady Little could stack all his worst on-base guys in front of Nomar and Manny). Further, Bellhorn shares the distinction of having the Cubs give up on him after one down year, in Bellhorn's case that being on the heels of his 27-homer jailbreak. And Bellhorn, like Mueller, was brought in because Theo likes guys who get on base. Put together a lineup that gets on at a .350 clip, with Ortiz, Manny, Nomar and 'Tek to clean em up, and you should have enough runs to survive even most of Derek Lowe's starts. Incidentally, Bellhorn came into last night with 26 RBIs, his 2003 total, and five RBIs later he had left his last year's homer and RBI marks in the dust. More importantly, he leads the league with a ridiculous 39 walks, nearly keeping pace with his Kingmanesque strikeout rate. For all those weak at-bats, he is getting on at a .395 clip. I used to think he was the odd man out when Nomie returns, but with Mueller sitting on ice, Bellhorn stays in the lineup at third and sends Youkilis back down for more seasoning.

2. Youkilis is exactly as advertised, if six games are to be believed. Everyone recalls that Moneyball featured him as the object of Billy Beane's insatiable lust for OB%, calling him the "Greek god of walks." According to this site, there is no such thing, though in Beane's semi-learned way I suspect he was referring to Odysseus, not a god but noteworthy for his patience and persistence. I loved Moneyball, even if Billy Beane has since become the GM who entrusted the 9th inning to Arthur Rhodes.

Rhodes, rhodes.. wait a minute -- do you see a pattern here? Is Billy Beane obsessed with Greece? Is he signing mediocre closers on this basis? Does this explain his bitter rivalry with Troy O'Leary? Does Ken Macha need to ban the "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" DVD from the clubhouse? This is a truly disturbing development.

Anyway, Youkilis has walked six times in six games, putting him on pace to walk 1,725 times over his career, assuming he plays 1,725 games. He also got plugged by Hudson on a 3-2 pitch, so you can credit him for even more than a walk a game. And an OB% of .467. Talk about living up to your billing. Although out of respect for his Jewish heritage, they should call him the Greek G-D of Walks.

3. Good pitching beats good hitting, usually, but it is impossible to rank them thusly without at least acknowledging the co-dependency the two sides of the ledger share. In 13 wins so far this month, the Sox have averaged over 7 runs a game, and gotten nine starters' victories in the process. In 11 losses they have averaged under four runs a game, with the starters taking the loss every time. Sure, the starters often deserved the loss, even when Derek Lowe was nowhere to be found, but the point is that a good offensive swing like that currently underway can make life very easy for this rather excellent pitching staff. Only once have the Sox lost despite scoring seven runs, and four times when they scored six runs. They are 14-5 when they score at least 6 runs.

4. Burp # 3 points out how completely obvious some statistics can be. I mean, how many teams aren't 14-5 when they score six runs? OK, Colorado, but that's it. So I always get a kick out of statistics like a guy's batting average with the bases loaded. Is Jeff DaVanon hitting .400 with the bases loaded because he's a clutch hitter, or because when the bases are loaded it usually indicates that the pitcher is having a nervous breakdown? Does Edgar Martinez hitting .060 below his average in the ninth inning of losses have nothing to do with the fact that in that situation he's facing everyone's closer? Anyway, as you can see, my point is... I forget.

5. I hereby nominate Pedro Martinez as the Artemis, minor god of pitching, not only for his dual nature but for bringing sudden death with his arrows. Keith Foulke is a close second. Additional nominations are now being accepted; have at it.

Steroid Hangover

So where are we now with the BALCO Three? This space boldly predicted that at least Sheffield and Giambi would be dogged by steroid news that, scandalous or not, would at least take the fun out of playing much this year. [Barry Bonds is the third member of the troika, but of course he is not actually human.]

Giambi is on the disabled list, for the first time ever. He got there with a relatively inocuous ankle sprain, so nobody's ready have him destroyed yet. And in fact he's doing OK this season. He isn't walking any more than his teammates, with 24 so far, but his batting average is up to the more respectably mediocre .270, and his OPS is an all-star .946. Are nine homers and 24 RBIs something to write home to Jeremy about? Not exactly, but he is no longer on pace to lead the majors in strikeouts either. If he comes back and keeps up this pace, he may be worth as much as 50 percent of his salary.

Sheff (hello children), however, is in the tank. Oh, .265 won't get you benched, and in the modern Yankee tradition he still walks more than he strikes out, but his slugging has completely disappeared. Three homers, and a .383 slugging percentage -- Pokey Reese is at .352, and making about $1.5 million, or ten percent of Sheff's deal.

Did the pressure of the BALCo investigation distract Giambi as he rounded the base, causing him to slip enough to roll his ankle? We will never know the true story. Just as plausibly, does someone in the audience yell "BALCO!" at Sheff (hello children) in mid-swing, robbing him of that extra-base power? This cannot be confirmed or denied. We do know that this story is not going away. I have no idea where it actually IS going, though I am certain Bud Selig is doing what he does best, burying his head in the sandpile underneath the Miller Park bleachers.

[Incidentally, why is it that people thrust into leadership by accident or questionable circumstances always turn out to be just as inadequate as their entree would befit? Can't someone take control of anything in a meritless way, and turn out to be a pleasant surprise? Besides current Sox ownership, that is?]

Anyway, Bonds hit his eleventh homer tonight, pulling him two ahead of Giambi in the BALCO sweepstakes. He's not just the president of the company, he's also a client.

Friday, May 21, 2004

Lowe Down

I don't want to suggest that the Globe is taking it easy on Derek Lowe these days, since they devoted about 25 column inches today to his latest "stinker." I just think they're too polite, after years of being embedded in the Sox camp. Here's how I would write the lede to last night.

TAMPA -- Derek Lowe sucked ass again last night as the Red Sox suffered a needless defeat to the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays, a team currently ranked below the Royals and PawSox on the power meter.

Despite receiving yet another undeserved complement of support from Sox hitters, who gamely posted six runs on as many hits against upcoming Tampa ace Victor Zambrano, Lowe yielded hit after hit to pathetic losers like Aubrey Huff (.221 batting average), Junior Cruz (.205), and the terrifying Julio Lugo. By the third inning, it was clear to all that Lowe was incapable of getting anyone out at all, and after eight hits and seven thoroughly earned runs, he was yanked in favor of the guys at the end of the Sox' bullpen bench who quickly restored order.

Never mind that Tim Wakefield and Curt Schilling hardly broke a sweat the past two evenings in taming the cannon fodder currently doubling as the Rays' "lineup" -- it was all just too much to bear for Lowe, whose surname describes his confidence far better than his pitch location. Lowe has sunk into some personal abyss that renders his body incapable of steering his darting fastballs and sinkers anywhere but two feet outside or right down the middle.

"There's nothing more to say," said catcher Jason Varitek. "Derek just sucks ass right now."

Manager Terry Francona vowed to stick with Lowe for the time being, although he "ordered [first baseman David] Ortiz to pile drive Derek off the dugout steps" if Lowe's next outing were as wretched. Francona described Lowe's performance as "goddamned fucking miserable bullshit" but expressed confidence that he could turn it around when the team returns home.

Thursday, May 20, 2004

Where are we now?

Tim Wakefield has lopped .8 runs off his ERA, Curt Schilling and Bronson Arroyo have replaced John Burkett and ... who? Casey Fossum? Robert Person? Bruce Chen? The bullpen has received a great deal of press in the last week for its own worst-to-first transformation. Only Derek Lowe has backslid noticeably among the roughly 12 pitcher slots on the roster.

So if the Red Sox appear a bit uninspiring compared to last year's edition, surely it's the hitting. And the numbers bear it out. Compared to last season's final statistics, Damon is up slightly, as is Varitek, and Manny is Manny, but that's it. Ortiz is down .080 points off his OPS. Garciaparra's .870 OPS is being replaced by Pokey Reese's .675. Bellhorn is a wash compared to Todd Walker, both of whom could be described as playing with an iron fist... in the field. Kevin Millar's slugging is the same as Pokey's; his OPS is down over .100 points. And then there's Bill Mueller, who has fallen back to Earth with a thud that sounds faintly like someone whispering "Scott Cooper." He is currently missing .200 points off his OPS, roughly 30 percent, or the difference between a contract extension and an unconditional release. Oh, and the Sox are second in baseball with 4,129 errors.

As bad as all that sounds, rest assured this is not evidence that someone is putting sedatives in the gatorade. No, the physical explanation goes straight to the lethargic recovery capacities of back injuries and achilles bruises. Namely Nomar's and Nixon's. I'm a strong believer in the trickle down effect: that having tough hitters spread around the lineup makes everyone a notch better. [And the corollary, that surrounding Barry Bonds with a bunch of Felix Jose replicas will deflate his stats.] If OPS is to be believed, Nixon and Garciaparra were both elite hitters last year. Moreover, both fielded their positions like All Stars. Their offensive replacements are (take your pick) Bellhorn or Reese, and the three-headed hydra of Millar/McCarty/Kapler. Reese is solid in the field, but he's supposed to be over at second, sparing us the sight of Bellhorn dealing with an in-between hop on artificial turf. The right fielders range from average to comical. And maybe Millar and Mueller are the weak links in the projected lineup, but sandwich (mmm) them around Varitek, Nixon and Ortiz, create a situation where they are likely to see more fastballs as pitchers would rather get beat by these guys than anyone else in the Sox lineup, and watch the OPS inflate.

This is a long way of saying that the Sox are looking good. There is no problem (except maybe for the incredible shrinking Derek Lowe) that isn't linked to the absence of these two stars. They are expected back with plenty of time left in the season... and that warm hitters' weather is starting to roll in. It's frustrating that these two little scratches cost the Sox some 300 quality at-bats, but it's hard to see where it has cost the Sox all that much in the standings.

Thursday, May 13, 2004

Back in town

[Was gone for the last week, sorry]

Sox aren't very encouraging these days, but they do have their moments. For example, I have concluded that Pedro is essentially brilliant, although his record would be gaudier if they had Foulke pitch the first inning and let Pedro take over from there.

Foulke, meanwhile, possesses baseball's most terrifying 88-mph fastball. There are plenty of pitchers who get by without heat... but how many of them induce so many swings and misses? Foulke tosses Tom Bolton heat but doesn't seem to ever throw breaking pitches to keep people off balance to make up for his lethargic fastball. We often call these slopballers "control pitchers" as a euphamism for anyone who doesn't have a fastball.

But Keith Foulke is the epitome of a control pitcher. He comes after you, not with power but location. I can't recall him catching much more than a sliver of the plate Tuesday, in inducing two strikeouts and another weak out. Perhaps the best way to appreciate his excellence is to keep your browser on MLB.com and watch where in the electronic strike zone his pitches show up. Since games start while I am still at work, I have taken to reading the game through pitch location. For example, when Derek Lowe is pitching and a blue dot shows up in the middle of the plate with the message "no out recorded," be afraid. Foulke uses almost none of the zone in which Lowe somehow makes a living.

Tuesday, May 04, 2004

On Strike

I refuse to blog again until the Red Sox win. Alternatively, I will blog again when Bill Mueller, David Ortiz and Gabe Kapler all get a hit in the same game.

Monday, May 03, 2004

Run Away!

No doubt this is the latest managment strategy for dealing with the Texas Rangers, at least on the road. This year, the Rangers themselves deserve some credit -- they are pitching decently, and the Lone Star state is no longer a reference to Alex Rodriguez. When I could stand to watch, I saw hitters like Michael Young being patient and fouling off a ton of pitches, extending Sox pitchers into their discomfort zone. So, just because they are owned by a right wing blowhard, doesn't mean the rest of the team is a complete disaster. On the contrary, they aren't bad, and seem to be enjoying the lift that every team receives when A-Rod deserts them.

A few other points:

* Tom Hicks is a right wing blowhard, and either he or his underlings deserve to get shit from the league for Friday's ridiculous rain delay. This game was never going to happen, unless they started early and got in five innings before the rains -- which they could've done. I personally looked at the radar at game time, and most of northwest Texas had huge nasty green shades on it, headed right for Dallas. Sure enough, they got a four hour downpour for their patience. So the Sox, who got in extremely late Thursday after a doubleheader, had to suit up, get warm, and sit in the dugout all night. This is a BS way to treat a visiting team, in the name of concession sales. Maybe Hicks wasn't pulling the strings, but this is the kind of classless act I'd expect if he was.

* Francona gets his first black mark of the year for his bullpen use in Game 1 Saturday, where he seemed to be saving his pitchers for the nightcap, as if that were a more important game. With the Sox leading 2-1 after 6, he came back with Arroyo (who was starting to tempt fate), yanked him after he gave up a baserunner, brought in Malaska, who gave up a hit, then turned to Williamson, who didn't exactly have it working. Two bloops and a legitimate hit and it was 4-2 Rangers. Malaska seems like a decent pitcher, but when you have Timlin, Embree, Williamson and Foulke rested and ready, you don't bring Malaska into a close game on the road against a tough hitting club. Save him for the nightcap.

* I've been defending Pedro the person for a while, but that policy has been shelved for the time being. His unsolicited contract tirade was three losses (and zero wins) ago... coincidence? The Red Sox have paid him a shade under $100 million on this deal, have not in fact insinuated that he is hurt (other than by resting him an extra day, which has preserved him rather nicely the last two years), and have otherwise treated him with uncharacteristic decency. If they aren't in agreement on going forward, so be it, but Pedro could at least look back at his previous contract when assessing whether ownership has given him a "fair shake." Also, when your team is in first, and looks equipped to stay that way, maybe you should just shut up and play out the string. I still think he'll do his job -- but starts like his last one make you wonder.

* Very soon it will hopefully be time to thank the Daubachs, Bellhorns and Kaplers for their service this April, and dismiss them back to the bench. The Sox' great start has been partly attributable to unexpected contributions at the bottom of the order, but at this point the club has officially stopped hitting. Mueller and Millar (couldn't at least one of them just be "Miller"?) look out of sorts, and could use the lineup protection they enjoyed last year -- namely, the across-the-board protection and upgrade the team will get from Nixon and Nomar, any day now. The genius of last year is that the Sox showed that depth, not star quality, is the key to offense. There was never more than one easy out in the order, and they wore pitchers out. When Nixon and Nomar return, there'll only be Pokey to swing at curveballs in the dirt, and as stated elsewhere his glove will atone for his bat's sins.

* Reason number 1,236 why April should be considered "just April": be it weather or rhythm, at any given moment in April at least a third of all bats go cold. The Yankees fortunately hit their rough patch against the Sox; but the Sox' bats were tailing off before they left the stadium, staved off disaster at home against Tampa (not that hard), before completely losing themselves in Texas. It happens, especially in April. Not to worry... as long as David McCarty and Gabe Kapler don't get 500 ABs.
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