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Friday, September 30, 2005

Pop Quiz

True or false?

The Patriots are still in existence and actually have a big game this weekend in Foxboro.

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Two or Four To Go

Not sure what those last 159 games were for, really. It all comes down to four games for the title, or two if the Yankees win them both. Sox need to win three before the Yankees win two. Thank god for the Papi, I can hold off on that epitaph for a while. Some thoughts coming into the showdown:

* Friday's Wells vs. Wang is probably the best matchup for the Sox. Wang is decent, but Wells is probably the only guy in the rotation that I feel confident in. Not that he's the best, but his history in big games means something to a team that seems capable of losing every matchup. I thought something was bugging his back?? Anyway, the key out on the Yankees right now is Giambi, so starting off with a lefty who's tough on lefties is a good development. The downside: if they lose this game, it's pretty much over.

* Saturday: Wakefield vs. Johnson -- two hottest pitchers on the staffs. Wakefield gives me less confidence than Wells, but the fact is he's been great lately, and he's also played well against New York this year.

* Sunday: Mussina vs. Schilling. Certainly the tabloid matchup, and the least predictable. Either of these guys could be gone by the second inning. Anything could happen. Question is, do you put Arroyo in the bullpen, or hold him out to start Monday if necessary?

* Not sure how much the Sox have to lose here. If they make it to Sunday on the verge of winning, it will be an incredible achievement for a team with faltering pitching. If Schilling goes out there with a chance to win the division, it will be the best baseball theater we could have asked for this year. Do they deserve it? Not yet, not really, maybe if they emphatically beat down the Yankees. But this is a team that hasn't responded down the stretch, has suffered exhaustion and numerous injuries, and just isn't able to respond the way the Yankees and Indians have lately. The Yankees, meanwhile, are having an amazing month with a cast of characters that I would NEVER want to see in Boston. So far they deserve it, even if I'm not sure it means anything at all, besides some good luck.

Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Leaking Oil

They might just make it, of course, but the Red Sox look more like a team that is about to fall short. The same hopelessly inconsistent pitching that has plagued them all year is as present as ever. Tonight was Arroyo's turn. It is what it is.

It's nice to see Renteria suddenly find his stroke. He got a lot of advanced billing as a clutch player, and now that they need him most, he's actually more than shown up. Gotta give credit where it's due. The usual suspects have generally been there, except when facing a lefty of any kind, even a retread piece of shit like Ted Lilly.

But the Sox' achilles isn't lefthanded pitching, or even those rookie pitchers who seem to keep them guessing for three or four tours of the lineup. The problem is within, as described earlier: the crippling of the Sox' staff. Take Schilling yesterday -- a critical game in which he threw as well as ever but without command. Nobody's offering explanations, and hell if I know, but isn't it logical that his ankle still isn't quite as strong as it should be, or if it is, that he hasn't gotten the rest of his leg muscles underneath him? He's never been all there this year, and like Foulke the only cure is to start over again next spring, when he has a legitimate chance to be himself.

The elements aren't there right now: the old guys aren't themselves, and the next wave isn't ready to step in. Hansen is a year away. Papelbon is emerging but needs to develop a role. A lot of signs on the horizon look really good, in fact. But not for the next five days...

Thursday, September 22, 2005

Still Giving Thanks

I've been complaining regularly that this Red Sox team has sapped my inspiration to write about them for a while now. And it's never been worse than it is today. Think about it: yeah, we did them in last year, but this year we really had the chance to finish off the Yankees for good, bury them, get Torre and Cashman fired, and start the mass exodus from the SS Steinbrenner as it keels over and sinks under the weight of ego, bad judgment, and revenue sharing debts. The Yankee roster is bad -- awful! -- and the results on the field were starting to show. Then they picked up a bunch of nobody journeymen losers, and now they can't lose. And just as the Yankees reach their inexplicable peak, the Red Sox start playing as far below their level as Aaron Small is above his. In September. In Tampa. The chicken little in me and a few million Sox fans starts asking, how could this be happening? Why us?

But there is redemption, even here. To wit: maybe nothing can explain the Yankees' run of success, but the Red Sox' predicament comes down to two factors, the rotation and the bullpen. In each case, the keystone player let the team down when his body wasn't letting him down altogether. Schilling and Foulke. Take away your ace starter and your closer, and the reverberations are felt all across the roster.

So why did these guys fail? Because they couldn't get healthy.

And why couldn't they get healthy? Because they sustained lasting injuries that require surgery time to heal.

And why did this happen? Because Schilling and Foulke overextended their bodies past the breaking point. On the field. Last October. You don't need to re-read the details; I'll just say that as much as I love Manny, Foulke was my world series MVP.

That was the tradeoff. So if they really can't pull themselves back together in time in the next 10 days, don't torture yourself in October. Don't sit around cursing the gods for not letting the Sox repeat last year. Buy the 2004 DVD, pop it in whenever there's a playoff series on that you wish the Sox were in, and enjoy it all over again. And say thanks to Schilling and Foulke and everyone else.

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Oh, and another thing...

As mentioned previously, I tend to regard September as an extension of preseason in the NFL, where you don't really get to know too much about a team, even if you think you do. With that, and the obvious ocean of goodwill they have built, I am reserving judgment on the Patriots. Maybe they have some glaring problems, but maybe it's just an adjustment, and even if it's deeper, they've overcome plenty of significant obstacles in past championship years.

So with that, I am typically annoyed by the chatter so far on the AFC, where the Colts supposedly have the best defense ever, and the Steelers are the league's most dominant team. How many years do we have to go through this? The Steelers are the exact same team they were last year, consisting of good football players stuck in a hopelessly inflexible system which tends to produce glamorous wins up until playoff time, when Cowher is expected to beat teams who don't quiver before a power running attack. As for the Colt defense, I will allow for the possibility that it has improved with Corey Simon on board, but two September wins against crap opponents tells us diddly. Until they beat New England, there is nothing else for the Colts to prove. They can beat everyone else. They can't beat Bill Belichick.

Still, 2005 is another year, and the absence of Bruschi is something that will bear watching all year. Last year Ty Law was not indispensible; the previous year it was Lawyer Milloy and Damian Woody; before that it was Bledsoe and Glenn. One wonders whether there is any element of the Patriot juggernaut you can subtract which will have any effect? And of course, there is at least one: Brady. Oh, and I suppose the coach. And now, I am wondering, maybe Bruschi too. He has an Ortiz-like quality to him, something that transcends Xs and Os. Bears watching.
Primed Time

As hard as it has been to say anything about the Red Sox, I must admit that I'm completely engrossed in baseball right now. Basically, the team is obviously very inconsistent due to its pitching, and the maddening circumstances of their playoff run (being depleted and exhausted thanks to scheduling quirks) makes me not want to discuss them at all. But that's not to suggest they aren't entertaining. To wit:

* They possess the single most spectacular human in the game in David Ortiz. He's the new Bonds, not in his on-base percentage so much as in the complete inability of any pitcher to do anything about him, at least when the pressure is on. Arguably the pressure reached its apex heading into last night's game, and Ortiz and Manny basically blew up the game in the first three innings. For the last couple weeks, Ortiz has been there just about any time he's had the opportunity... which given the slump that engulfed the entire rest of the team was not too often. Enjoy.

* Edgar Renteria looks unspeakably horrible. So much for his "Mr. Clutch" reputation. Few recent acquisitions have suffered as much from their reputation as Renteria, given that expectations were pretty dang high and he's come nowhere near any of them, besides his "serious clubhouse demeanor." I wonder what incentive clauses his contract has in this regard. If he positively influences at least five younger players, does that trigger a $100,000 bonus? What if Hanley Ramirez makes the roster in spring training? Or if Kevin Youkilis shows an improved game face?

* I can't wait to see Craig Hanson pitch, hopefully tonight. By "future closer," do the Sox mean two hours from now?

Anyway, enjoy. This is the time of year baseball fans live for, and the Sox, while squandering what should be a bigger lead over a mysteriously successful if otherwise horrifying Yankee team, are still in position to go to the Show. Hopefully last night was the lineup's big breakout, and we can look forward to the Sox raining hits on their opponents the rest of the way.

Sunday, September 11, 2005

Showdown Update

Sage is sleeping, so I am indulging in a few innings of Sox-Yanks, where a 1-0 deficit looks larger than normal. So, assuming the worst, we can nonetheless say that the Sox accomplished some big milestones this weekend.

* The games: one win in this series would be enough to ensure that the Yankees didn't make any serious ground on the Sox, while two wins (not out of the question yet?) would come close to sealing the deal. Only a Yankee sweep would be a real problem, and the Sox emphatically did away with that yesterday.

* Pitching: Wells was just average, even assuming the Sox caught the ball (which they didn't), but Wakefield and Schilling were superb. In the former case, it's more of the knuckleball ride through the season, uncontrollably up and down. But in the latter case, this is potentially huge. Clement-Wells-Wakefield-Arroyo is a great staff following a true rotation ace, as opposed to replacing one. So if Schilling has finally rediscovered his command, the Sox are not only well-positioned to close out the division but compete in the postseason as well. Without a solid Schilling, October might be a good month for watching football.

* Manny got attention for something other than goofing off or striking out, finally homering and getting on base pretty often. I like that he battled against the Yankees' incessant -- and slightly bizarre -- insistence on a steady diet of fastballs inside. Do they think they found a hole in his swing? It's possible, but even if it were true, it's hard to see how you can get Manny out throwing the same pitch over and over.

One thing I have to say, and this is not a reverse jinx, is that the Yankees have done a great job staying in the race. Considering their complete lack of karma, as well as their patchwork rotation, it's incredible they didn't fold up the tent a while back. Personally I give none of the credit to Torre; the real hero is Mel Stottlemyre. Complete losers like Al Leiter and Shawn Chacon have shown an ability to get outs a lot faster than recently, and Aaron Small's transformation is positively remarkable. He worked the corners incessantly Friday. Credit too to Cashman, who while picking among the retreads found some arms which could work for a while in this unique situation.

Friday, September 09, 2005

Here We Go Again...

No, this is not a post about the Patriots' start of another victorious march through the NFL. Rather, it's an even more repetitive subject: the media's fascination with the Indianapolis Colts and Peyton Manning.

Once again, the Colts are a consensus favorite among experts to win it all, although we're talking a subtle plurality rather than some supermajority. Still, taking ESPN as the bellwether, eight experts (of twelve) picked the Colts to win the AFC Championship, five to win the Super Bowl. Compared to three picking the Pats (2 SBs). More than double. Meanwhile, John Clayton, one of their more esteemed experts, has this gem:

The hurricane damage in Louisiana gives the veteran QB a cause to rally around during the season. Manning won't forget what happened to the homes and people he grew up with in the New Orleans area. The man is a champion. Now, he has a cause. Already, Manning has been among the NFL leaders in getting involved with charity and relief work for the victims of the hurricane. The great ones -- and Manning is a great one -- seem to be able to find ways of making history with a flair. Having a Super Bowl year when he has such a forum to do good for struggling people would only be fitting.

First off, as shocking and depressing as the news from the Gulf Coast is, the person I feel least sorry for is Peyton Manning, whose personal wealth and security far outstrips that of entire rural parishes in Louisiana that haven't been heard from yet. If Peyton Manning got stuck someplace without food, water, or news of his family's safety, then I'd feel bad. As is, he went down to help, which is cool, and I'm confident he knows who the real victims are, even if ESPN.com does not.

But then there's the stunner... champion?!?!?! of what? The Pro Bowl? The stats race? The AFC's perennially worst division? Even his college team waited for him to leave before winning the national title -- seconds after he left, I might add. The only history Manning has made is biggest dropoff in performance from one playoff game to another. If the Colts got to play Denver at home in each round of the playoffs, he would have a chance. But anyone who forgets that, when it was all on the line, New England made him look ridiculous for the umpteenth consecutive time, is utterly unqualified to write about Football.

Three Super Bowls later, the Patriots still have not managed to convince the elite NFL reporters establishment that they bring more to the table than the golden boy and his defenseless gang of fantasy stat freaks. To a majority of writers, bad defense and wide open astroturf passing games are what wins super bowls.

I would argue that this proves teams should check their press box water pipes for lead content. But then, this is a nation that is still debating creationism versus evolution.

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Drip... Drip... Drip

Not the most impressive opener for the Patriots. Here are three things that concern me:

Run D: Suffering from the loss of their jam master Bruschi, the Pats saw the Raiders raise some hell in their backfield. OK, that's enough. Anyway, the Patriots had questions coming into this season about how they were going to replace their two inside backers, and those questions aren't going away just yet.

Special Teams: Sloppy, sloppy, sloppy. But this is an area that I would expect some shoring up.

Play Calling: Do I miss Charlie Weis yet? After some humdrum sequences, yeah, kinda.

And four better reasons not to worry:

It's Week One, Dammit! Aside from the obvious "there are 276 more weeks to go" retort, I would also fall back on my own stale observation that teams tend to lack timing in the first week or two. Brady and Branch got their timing right about once every third attempt. Two blocked kicks... ugly. But these are all part of the randomness of week one.

Brady: Cool as a frozen juice bar.

D-Line: Jarvis Green is a monster, and he can't even crack the starting lineup.

They are the Patriots. Last year's opener was far sloppier. And in 2001 they dropped their first game to the Bengals. It's not how you start, especially when your second half record is pretty close to perfect every year.

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

The Magic Heath Bar

While wrapping up a rather lengthy, if thoroughly excellent, New England vacation, I found myself musing over the mediocrity of the current Sox... no great shakes on the mound, plenty of outs to be had in the lineup (at least if you're a rookie nobody's seen before)... etc. Another promising game was rapidly grinding to a halt as the Angels came back to tie the Sox, and with Wakefield on the mound, there was no reason to feel confident. But Wakefield did indeed have his good stuff, and as the Sox opened the bottom of the ninth, I reached for a leftover health bar lying around, took a bite, and declared that if the Sox won the game then and there I would eat a heath bar every ninth inning for the rest of the year.

As you now know, I then practically choked on said heath bar as David Ortiz expanded his legend by launching an unfortunately located fastball off the Prudential Building. So I guess I'm committed (except for tonight, I was on a plane in the 9th, and the team didn't seem to need my help). It should be noted that it only took two bites of the heath bar to produce the longest and most beautiful homer of the season thus far, so I would assume that the magic can continue with only a few nibbles a night, rather than having to eat seven heath bars a week.

And as for the Sox' mediocrity... maybe I spent too much time drinking the haunted waters of Quabbin reservoir. The fact is that if Schilling were capable of resuming his ace role, the Sox' 2-5 starters would be averaging 12.5 wins so far. The same ripple effect would be felt in the bullpen if Foulke were himself. And since both have lengthy enough track records, well, let's not write them off just yet.
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