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Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Sizing Things Up

I am currently reading "Mind Games," a Baseball Prospectus deconstruction of the 2004 Red Sox and their blueprint for success, if such a thing exists. I'm not at the end yet, so I don't know exactly what the thesis is. Did the Red Sox invent a new system for winning?

I don't know, but I do know that this is a current issue. I've read a lot of speculation about whether Josh Beckett will or won't be the thing that puts the Sox over the top, but most of it misses the point. Beckett hasn't won 20 games, or pitched 200 innings or won an ERA title. But last I checked, those are all things people accomplish in the regular season. I have a sneaky suspicion that the Sox are trying to find people who fit the regular season formula generally -- as opposed to people who win regular season stat titles -- but who have served with distinction in the postseason.

Look at the track record. Two years ago they brought in Schilling, a fairly obvious ploy for a postseason winner, and one whose regular season record was starting to break down. Last year they nabbed David Wells, who has for years been everything in the postseason that Matt Clement is in the first half. This year it's Beckett, about whom people are trying to raise questions about his durability while conveniently ignorning the fact that he DESTROYED THE FUCKING YANKEES IN THE WORLD SERIES!! [There are also rumors of an effort to swap Clement for Derek Lowe, whose last postseason atoned for at least three runs off his regular season ERA.] The Red Sox can round up any number of starters to bridge the gaps in the regular season, and can rely on their relentless offense to score enough runs to put them into or near the postseason. But at that point, you don't win with averages, five- to seven-game series are too short to rely on things to average out. You need Winners to hedge your bets. And in Beckett that, I am guessing, is what the Sox were looking for.

[Aside: Wells and Schilling have one other thing in common: they almost never walk anyone. Two is a small sample, but it's worth asking: is there a correlation between control and winning in October?]

Monday, November 21, 2005

Hooo-Leee Sheeite!!!!

There is a poll on the Boston.com sports page asking, what do you think of the deal to land Josh Beckett? To which there is only one answer: what do you freaking think I think??? Let's see, 25-year-old, wicked fastball and other pitches, proven winner, and killed the Yankees in their house in the World Series at age 23. I'm not sure but I think there might be some material to work with here.

Three reasons to be mildly afraid -- and that's not counting the fact that the deal isn't official:

3. Beckett could leave as a free agent before we can extend him. Never know, but he's at least a 2-3 year rental, if not the cornerstone.

2. His shoulder might be nettlesome. Or it could blow up. I mean, what if? What if I slipped in the shower? OMIGOD, I'd be KILLED! Anyway, it bears watching, but nobody seems too perturbed yet, and we heard this for years about Pedro.

1. Hanley could be a Star. Sanchez could be a Star. And we'd have to buy them back from the Marlins someday.

Innumerable reasons to like this deal, even love it, even weep a bit in a private moment:

1. Hanley and Anibal aren't there yet; Josh is. Granted, this isn't Fossum-for-Schilling, but still...

2. Hanley could be great, but this league is won with pitching.

3. Mike Lowell could be much more than fodder; when he signed the deal that the Marlins are using as an excuse to unload him, it was because the league was in love with him. He's swung and missed a fair amount since then, but the stat geeks will set out to determine if that was just an aberration. And everyone says he's a solid guy. Don't compare him to Mike Lansing.

4. What Beckett did in the 2003 WS is legend. How long did we wait for any single Red Sox player to put a hurt into the Yankees? And here's a power pitcher who did it between shaving lessons? Seriously, what more do you want??

We will have to wait and see if the deal becomes official before taking a victory lap, and before looking into all the details. But these Thanksgiving surprises are something I could get used to.

Tuesday, November 01, 2005

Innocence Lost

Face it, the Theo Epstein story was too good to last. Local boy grows up (slightly) and leads the Sox in from the wilderness. The fact that some 99.9% of Bostoninans not named Shaughnessy are siding with Theo over Lucchino in the purported rift suggests we all bought into the feel-good story.

And we should have, up to a point. Last year's win was the mother of all sports feel-good moments, where a numbingly painful drought is ended by a bunch of guys who let their hair down and enjoyed the most stunning ride through the playoffs in history. The wall not only came down, it was exploded in the most dramatic fashion possible. Little elaboration is needed here...

...

Where was I? Ah, right. Anyway, the Sox' victory ignited a burst of innocent joy across the grey and jaded region that nobody could have imagined. Much as I would like to have taken in some games in person, it was enough that I made it to the parade and saw the happiness on everyone's faces. That New England permafrost was at least temporarily melted by David Ortiz' gap-toothed grin and barrage of homers; Johnny Damon's long locks; Kevin Millar's permanent goofy grin; and Manny being Manny (the good side of it). It really was an incredible time, all around.

But the nature of innocent good times is that they can't last forever. Someday Sage will intentionally piss me off. Scooter Libby will eventually get out of jail. Over time my Litespeed will show the strain imposed on it by my widening wasteline. That's life.

And so the Theo story, where the young, honest, smart local kid vanquishes sport's most durable mass angst, is a story that burned bright, and faded. Like Mike Eruzione, perhaps he will never get old in our minds, his accomplishment will never get tarnished by a string of efforts falling short. We will never really have to run down all those moves that didn't help the team. Like the soul of that great, charming World Series team, Theo has moved on.

Appreciate what we got last year. It was never going to come close to that again. It had to be different from then on, and with Theo leaving, it's just going to be that much more different.
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